djatc
djatc
Joined: Jan 15, 2013
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March 7th, 2017 at 2:01:44 AM permalink
This is a fun game, also I can try to win an ipad so I'm gonna keep going.
They asked me how well I understood theoretical physics. I said I had a theoretical degree in physics. They said welcome aboard.
LostWages
LostWages
Joined: May 6, 2013
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March 7th, 2017 at 7:33:47 AM permalink
Quote: tringlomane

It will probably be higher this time.

Yeah, glitzy queen was in the lead last night at 89,000+. Not sure if they registered my 20,000. I'll check laterwards. Thanks for your post.
Eat real food . . . and you won't need medicine (or a lot less!)
LostWages
LostWages
Joined: May 6, 2013
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March 7th, 2017 at 7:41:50 AM permalink
Quote: RS

This is why casinos can offer +EV games and still make money.

I understand you & tringlomane recommended NOT keeping the Kh-Kd-M-M-M. If you could please explain a little more, maybe I'll have better results? Thanks so much.
Eat real food . . . and you won't need medicine (or a lot less!)
beachbumbabs
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beachbumbabs
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Thanks for this post from:
LostWages
March 7th, 2017 at 12:30:10 PM permalink
Quote: LostWages

I understand you & tringlomane recommended NOT keeping the Kh-Kd-M-M-M. If you could please explain a little more, maybe I'll have better results? Thanks so much.



Me, not them, but the thinking is, you have 4 to a royal with either king held. ANY of the other 4 cards will complete the royal, so you have a 4 in 50 shot of catching a royal each hand, and 10 tries at it.

Almost a certainty you will get one in this situation, earning 4x the amount you gave up to try. And, with this hand, the very worst you could do is 4OAK for 20 x 10 hands, with several higher hands in the paytable, so you're not giving up 1000; at worst you lose 800.

Then again, you could've just started with this:



Sigh. I hope this isn't the one dealt royal I ever get in my lifetime. I'd like to have been playing for pennies, even.

Fwiw, it dealt the Jd Qd, 3 M cards, then auto-held it all with a slow roll of the M cards; no opportunity to throw it away by accident, or take a picture before it uncovered the M cards one at a time. But it's kind of pretty; maybe I'll frame it and hang it on the wall. Lol
"If the house lost every hand, they wouldn't deal the game."
tringlomane
tringlomane
Joined: Aug 25, 2012
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March 7th, 2017 at 2:43:42 PM permalink
Quote: beachbumbabs

Me, not them, but the thinking is, you have 4 to a royal with either king held. ANY of the other 4 cards will complete the royal, so you have a 4 in 50 shot of catching a royal each hand, and 10 tries at it.

Almost a certainty you will get one in this situation, earning 4x the amount you gave up to try. And, with this hand, the very worst you could do is 4OAK for 20 x 10 hands, with several higher hands in the paytable, so you're not giving up 1000; at worst you lose 800.

Then again, you could've just started with this:



Sigh. I hope this isn't the one dealt royal I ever get in my lifetime. I'd like to have been playing for pennies, even.

Fwiw, it dealt the Jd Qd, 3 M cards, then auto-held it all with a slow roll of the M cards; no opportunity to throw it away by accident, or take a picture before it uncovered the M cards one at a time. But it's kind of pretty; maybe I'll frame it and hang it on the wall. Lol



Yeah, I got the target hand in another contest on videopoker.com, I didn't win any cash for the week as I finished 37th. :(

From a tournament strategy standpoint, you are probably better off playing the games where you get 3 magic cards every 1 in 500 hands because you are going to NEED the dealt royal to have a chance, preferably two. When getting 3 magic cards, the odds of you getting dealt 2 Royal cards with it is 4*C(5,2)/C(52,2) = 3.02%.

So for 8/6 Jacks, the probability of a dealt royal looks like this:
3 Magic Cards: 4*C(5,2)/C(52,2) x 0.002 =0.0302 x 0.002 = 1 in 16,575
2 Magic Cards: 4*C(5,3)/C(52,3) x 0.026 = 0.00181 x 0.026 = 1 in 21,250
1 Magic Card: 4*C(5,4)/C(52,4) x 0.1085 = 0.000073876 x 0.1085 = 1 in 124,758
0 Magic Cards: 4*C(5,5)/C(52,5) x 0.8635 = 0.000001539 x 0.8635 = 1 in 752,449
Total: 0.000117 = 1 in 8566.4

For 9/6 DDB, the probability of a dealt royal looks like this:
3 Magic Cards: 4*C(5,2)/C(52,2) x 0.002 =0.0302 x 0.001 = 1 in 33,150
2 Magic Cards: 4*C(5,3)/C(52,3) x 0.026 = 0.00181 x 0.01 = 1 in 55,250
1 Magic Card: 4*C(5,4)/C(52,4) x 0.1085 = 0.000073876 x 0.084 = 1 in 161,146
0 Magic Cards: 4*C(5,5)/C(52,5) x 0.8635 = 0.000001539 x 0.905 = 1 in 717,945
Total: 0.000559 = 1 in 17,901
RS
RS
Joined: Feb 11, 2014
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Thanks for this post from:
LostWages
March 7th, 2017 at 5:25:42 PM permalink
Quote: LostWages

I understand you & tringlomane recommended NOT keeping the Kh-Kd-M-M-M. If you could please explain a little more, maybe I'll have better results? Thanks so much.


I'll let you figure it out. :)

Do the math -- what do you get paid when you hold Kh Kd M M M ? What about Kh - M M M ? What about - - M M M ?

For starters, try to figure out what the LOWEST each of those holds can return.
"What would Brian Boitano do?"
Wizard
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Wizard
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March 9th, 2017 at 2:52:42 PM permalink
I just created a first draft of my page on Magic Deal. Hullabaloo, I hope you don't mind that I used your screenshot from this thread as the official "image" for the game.

As always, I welcome questions, comments, and especially corrections.
It's not whether you win or lose; it's whether or not you had a good bet.
Hullabaloo
Hullabaloo
Joined: Nov 30, 2014
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March 9th, 2017 at 7:17:34 PM permalink
Quote: Wizard

Hullabaloo, I hope you don't mind that I used your screenshot from this thread as the official "image" for the game.



My pleasure.
IndyJeffrey
IndyJeffrey
Joined: Feb 10, 2013
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March 20th, 2017 at 3:32:43 AM permalink
Quote: Wizard

I just created a first draft of my page on Magic Deal.
As always, I welcome questions, comments, and especially corrections.



The link to this forum at the bottom of the Magic Deal write-up page contains a typo. 'odds' as opposed to 'vegas'
Ayecarumba
Ayecarumba
Joined: Nov 17, 2009
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March 20th, 2017 at 2:45:58 PM permalink
Out of curiosity, what happens if you are dealt a hand that can't be improved, (e.g., quad kings in JoB) and a Magic Card? Will it become an Ace to make the "highest possible hand", or will it just pick anything, since it makes no difference to the payout?
America is all about speed. Hot, nasty, bad-ass speed. - Eleanor Roosevelt, 1936

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