3k hands to have roughly 50% chance of getting 4 Deuces or Natural Royal?

Is my estimate correct?

So, I'll probably play 3,000 hands of FPDW in March and I'd like to know my chances of getting either a natural royal or four deuces.

Odds of not getting natural royal in 3k hands: 93.33%
Odds of not getting 4 deuces in 3k hands: 54.55%

Odds not getting either, 50.9%.

Correct?

Quote: deedubbs

Is my estimate correct?

So, I'll probably play 3,000 hands of FPDW in March and I'd like to know my chances of getting either a natural royal or four deuces.

Odds of not getting natural royal in 3k hands: 93.33%
Odds of not getting 4 deuces in 3k hands: 54.55%

Odds not getting neither, 50.9%.

Correct?

Your estimate of 50.9% is very close to the exact answer.

From "Full Pay" Deuces Wild Wizard return table (100.76% return), out 19933230517200 total combinations, 440202756 combinations result in a natural royal and 4060462824 combinations result in four deuces. So, the probability of neither a natural royal nor four deuces in 3000 hands is: ( 1 - 4500665580 / 19933230517200 ) ^ 3000 = .507917 or about 50.8%.

Thanks!

Obviously he means "not getting either" but does "not getting neither" mean "getting both" or "getting at least one"?

I'm currently@ over 160k hands without a royal and about 7k hands without deuces on fpdw. A very sad streak indeed.

But I've also caught deuces three times in a day and twice in 5 mins.

Good luck on your trip.

Quote: rudeboyoi

Obviously he means "not getting either" but does "not getting neither" mean "getting both" or "getting at least one"?

I would say getting at least one. The not modifies the getting neither so all you have to do is get one to make the statement getting neither false.

Sorry for not being more clear, I meant getting at least one. I was actually embarrassed to even ask for confirmation. I'm a finance guy, passed all CFA exams and working on CAIA, who can value complex currency swaps after initiation or set up triangular currency arbitrage, but I've always hated combinatorics and probability. Go figure.

And thanks for the wishes of positive variance. I'm a very low limit AP who usually just chases check cashing, ATM promos, match players, and other coupons during my 1-2 Vegas trips per year, but I'm excited to branch out into some VP. I played a good bit of the nearly 100% JoB at the Eastside Cannery last year, good times.

hit my 1st quad deuces today!
$1 97.6% machine = $1000!

I've only played maybe 1000 hands lifetime.

it started off good. 1st hand was a wild royal (+$100)! then got dealt three 2's and hit the quad (+$1000)!!!
then nothing much after that. lost $200 in the next 200 hands. :(

I walked away +900 :)

Congratulations on your deuces! That's a pretty piss poor schedule@ 97.6. I wouldn't make a habit of playing that. But happy to hear of your win.

Quote: Bigfshead

Congratulations on your deuces! That's a pretty piss poor schedule@ 97.6. I wouldn't make a habit of playing that. But happy to hear of your win.

it's a Caesar's casino.
9/6 JoB is $45 coin-in for 1 tier credit.

all the standard $10 coin-in for 1 TC machines are ~97.6% range.
ie: 8/5 JoB, and DDB.

need a minimum of 75 TC to get a $10 bounce back offer.
expected loss on the $1 97.6% DW machine is $18.
18 - 10 = $8 -> cost of me having fun/entertainment.

I find DW more fun than JoB.

and with this $900 windfall, I am WWAAAAAAAYYYY ahead. :)


edit:
hm.. expected loss at 9/6 JoB is $16.88 to get 75 TC.

Ya, I understand. When I play vp I really only play fpdw. It's 25c only for fpdw. I don't have the br for$1 fp ddb or db. And 50c isn't worth it. I am over half way to president with stations casinos through the month of jan. My net loss is less than 200 with no royal and 50k hands . This includes $90 cash back and returns on $60 worth of free play on neg ev machines. But doesn't include food discounts. I just hate playing anything that isn't full pay.