100xOdds
100xOdds
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February 9th, 2014 at 7:32:41 AM permalink
so i'm now forced to play slots or vp w/my $50 freeplay since my casino stopped allowing them for e-Craps.

best low limit is .50 8/5 JoB (97.3%).

since the double up supposedly has no house edge, why not play it every time? and keep playing it till you lose?
0% He > 2.7% HE

and is it really 0% HE?
you have to pick 1 of 5 cards to beat the dealer's card. 2 to win, 2 to lose, and 1 tie?
or does it not work that way?
Craps is paradise (Pair of dice). Lets hear it for the SpeedCount Mathletes :)
Ibeatyouraces
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February 9th, 2014 at 7:36:00 AM permalink
deleted
DUHHIIIIIIIII HEARD THAT!
tringlomane
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February 9th, 2014 at 7:55:04 AM permalink
Quote: 100xOdds



and is it really 0% HE?
you have to pick 1 of 5 cards to beat the dealer's card. 2 to win, 2 to lose, and 1 tie?
or does it not work that way?



It is zero house edge, but it's also zero coin-in, so it does you no good in trying to play out your freeplay. It just jacks up variance.

And no. All cards are randomly dealt in the game so if the dealer gets a two in the JoB double up feature, you'll never lose, the worst you can do is tie. If the dealer gets an Ace, the best you can do is tie. There will be some cases where all your choices would either win or lose.
Mission146
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February 9th, 2014 at 9:42:26 AM permalink
Quote: tringlomane

It is zero house edge, but it's also zero coin-in, so it does you no good in trying to play out your freeplay. It just jacks up variance.

And no. All cards are randomly dealt in the game so if the dealer gets a two in the JoB double up feature, you'll never lose, the worst you can do is tie. If the dealer gets an Ace, the best you can do is tie. There will be some cases where all your choices would either win or lose.



I generally agree, but that's not always the case. The Spielo GTECH machines give the dealer a card and the player two, one card will always win and one will always lose. 0% HE either way. The last $6.25 Flush I had I turned into $200, but then lost my will to push to $800. Still pretty good for s $1.25 initial bet, 9/5 JoB.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
100xOdds
100xOdds
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February 9th, 2014 at 9:46:52 AM permalink
Quote: tringlomane

It is zero house edge, but it's also zero coin-in, so it does you no good in trying to play out your freeplay. It just jacks up variance.



I go back to the wiz saying in Craps to have come bets working during the passline roll.
the reason is that it's a lower house edge than 1.4% passline roll.

I take that to use a lower HE option everytime when available.


obvious stopping points at 'Double Up' is doing it the max times or if the next win puts you above $1200 (thus a w2-g).
How many times can you double up?

edit:
mission, wish my casino had one of those double up options.
and whats your opinion on using the double up option till you lose or max out?

oh, if I hit a $2000 Royal, try double up and lose, do I still get a w2-g?
or will the machine lock up on any win over $1200 thus not even give me a chance to play Double up?
Craps is paradise (Pair of dice). Lets hear it for the SpeedCount Mathletes :)
sodawater
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February 9th, 2014 at 10:18:23 AM permalink
Quote: 100xOdds

I go back to the wiz saying in Craps to have come bets working during the passline roll.
the reason is that it's a lower house edge than 1.4% passline roll.

I take that to use a lower HE option everytime when available.



Working come odds on a comeout roll lowers the combined house edge for your initial come bet. The reason being is that there's nothing "special" about a comeout roll, and having your odds off for the comeout is the same as turning the odds off for a normal roll.

It's true when playing a negative game, you should always use a lower house-edge option -- but only if you want to increase variance at a lower cost of expected loss. In negative games, you are essentially buying variance, so it makes sense to pay as little for it as possible.

For example, your expected loss is exactly the same for both:

A. $10 pass line bet, $ 0 odds.

B. $10 pass line bet, $50 odds.

The difference is you will get much more variance in option B, at a lower combined house edge, and therefore will pay less for that variance than if you had just flat bet.

Another way to look at it is that if you want to get $60 in play, it's much better to make a $10 flat bet and $50 odds than six $10 flat bets.

It's the same with the double-up on VP wins. It's free variance if you want it. You should take it if you wanted to risk that same money anyway because you will save on house edge. But only if you wanted to risk that money anyway.
100xOdds
100xOdds
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February 9th, 2014 at 10:31:06 AM permalink
Quote: sodawater

Working come odds on a comeout roll lowers the combined house edge for your initial come bet. The reason being is that there's nothing "special" about a comeout roll, and having your odds off for the comeout is the same as turning the odds off for a normal roll.

It's true when playing a negative game, you should always use a lower house-edge option -- but only if you want to increase variance at a lower cost of expected loss. In negative games, you are essentially buying variance, so it makes sense to pay as little for it as possible.

For example, your expected loss is exactly the same for both:

A. $10 pass line bet, $ 0 odds.

B. $10 pass line bet, $50 odds.

The difference is you will get much more variance in option B, at a lower combined house edge, and therefore will pay less for that variance than if you had just flat bet.

Another way to look at it is that if you want to get $60 in play, it's much better to make a $10 flat bet and $50 odds than six $10 flat bets.

It's the same with the double-up on VP wins. It's free variance if you want it. You should take it if you wanted to risk that same money anyway because you will save on house edge. But only if you wanted to risk that money anyway.



hm.. my thing is that after i play thru the freeplay, i use the winnings to play e-Craps.
but since 0% HE double up > bets with odds, i guess Double up is for me?

ie:
double up everytime in VP till i hit the max.
when i play thru the freeplay, cash out winnings (if any) and play e-Craps.
HE of e-Craps 3/4/5x odds is better than 8/5 JoB. (i only get the double up option if i win a hand at vp.)
Craps is paradise (Pair of dice). Lets hear it for the SpeedCount Mathletes :)
tringlomane
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February 9th, 2014 at 10:51:54 AM permalink
Quote: 100xOdds

hm.. my thing is that after i play thru the freeplay, i use the winnings to play e-Craps.
but since 0% HE double up > bets with odds, i guess Double up is for me?

ie:
double up everytime in VP till i hit the max.
when i play thru the freeplay, cash out winnings (if any) and play e-Craps.
HE of e-Craps 3/4/5x odds is better than 8/5 JoB. (i only get the double up option if i win a hand at vp.)



It really depends on what final result you're looking for. Whether you double up or not, you still have to play 20 hands of $0.50 8/5 JoB at max bet to clear the free play, with each of those hands having a 2.7% house edge.

If you really don't care about the final result of any given set of free play, I'd find that 98.91% DW44 machine instead for $25/hand. It would return more money overall than repeatedly doubling up on 8/5 JoB. But if you always want some money returned to you to play ecraps with, play 8/5 JoB without doubling up.
100xOdds
100xOdds
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February 9th, 2014 at 11:10:38 AM permalink
Quote: tringlomane

It really depends on what final result you're looking for. Whether you double up or not, you still have to play 20 hands of $0.50 8/5 JoB at max bet to clear the free play, with each of those hands having a 2.7% house edge.

If you really don't care about the final result of any given set of free play, I'd find that 98.91% DW44 machine instead for $25/hand. It would return more money overall than repeatedly doubling up on 8/5 JoB. But if you always want some money returned to you to play ecraps with, play 8/5 JoB without doubling up.



lol.. 2 hands of dw44?
hm.. at 2hands/week, that's 104hands/yr of dw44.

you might be on to something.
THX!

hm.. just realized the $800 in comps i have accumulated on my rewards card only allows 32hands at max bet of $5 dw44.
wow. I've seen people in Vegas blow thru a $100 bill at .25 full pay dw (100%+) before they finish their cigarette. (and that's 80bets minimum.)

sidenote:
but i might just try to play thru that $800 this coming weekend when i get a mystery bonus freeplay.
im tired of having all that cash sitting there waiting for md live to offer a better redemption rate for points promo, like they do at Resorts World in NYC.

(a yr and 1/2 after md live opened and never offering better redemption rates, ive accepted that its never going to happen.)
Craps is paradise (Pair of dice). Lets hear it for the SpeedCount Mathletes :)
tringlomane
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February 9th, 2014 at 11:18:39 AM permalink
I would think MD live is popular enough to not run a promo like that anytime soon. Actually I've never run across a casino ever offering a promo like that.

And yes playing $25/hand VP is very risky, which is why you should only do it if you don't expect a certain result from the free play. If you want to assure a higher minimum return, then you have to play lower denominations.
100xOdds
100xOdds
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February 9th, 2014 at 11:23:26 AM permalink
Quote: tringlomane

I would think MD live is popular enough to not run a promo like that anytime soon. Actually I've never run across a casino ever offering a promo like that.

And yes playing $25/hand VP is very risky, which is why you should only do it if you don't expect a certain result from the free play. If you want to assure a higher minimum return, then you have to play lower denominations.



yup, resorts world in nyc offered it monthly or quarterly, up to $x depending on your tier level. but I haven't been there since md live opened so don't know if they offer it anymore.

hm.. might do $5: 8/6 JoB 98.39% instead of $5 dw44 (98.91%) for my $800 in comps. safer.
and do $5 dw44 for my weekly freeplay after that.
good compromise, I think?
Craps is paradise (Pair of dice). Lets hear it for the SpeedCount Mathletes :)
tringlomane
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February 9th, 2014 at 11:32:20 AM permalink
Playing 8/6 JoB for $25 hand wouldn't be any better. DW44 isn't that much more swingy and pays 0.5% better than 8/6 JoB. I'd either play 8/5 JoB for $2.50 hand or 98.91% dw44 for $25/hand, depending on how much variance you want. You can do a mix on the $800. Like grind out the first $600 on 8/5 and really gamble with the rest. All depends on how much risk you want to take with the $800.
Mission146
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February 9th, 2014 at 12:14:06 PM permalink
Quote: 100xOdds



edit:
mission, wish my casino had one of those double up options.
and whats your opinion on using the double up option till you lose or max out?

oh, if I hit a $2000 Royal, try double up and lose, do I still get a w2-g?
or will the machine lock up on any win over $1200 thus not even give me a chance to play Double up?



My opinion on the double up until a loss or stop if the next result would be a handpay is that it is the best thing to do, mathematically, in terms of expected return. If there's any reason you're using a game to try to build points or because a points multiplier (as is sometimes the case on that 9/5 game for me) puts you over 100%, then you would not exercise the option if it doesn't count towards your slot points. It does not at the casino to which I refer, just the original bet.

I'm something of a hypocrite because, even if I am not playing at an advantage, I don't always go for the free double up. Lately, I'll go for it on any Even Money return and try to bump that up to $10.00, I usually will not do it on a higher pay. I was $20 in the hole when I turned that $6.25 Flush into $200, and if I were to follow my own advice, I'd have tried to turn it into $800. $200 was a satisfying amount, though, and I continued to play up to $250 or down to $200 and it ended up being down to $200 for a profit of $160.

I'm afraid you're asking the wrong guy about what happens on a Royal. I've played between three and four Royal cycles in my life and have never done it.

The Spielo Tech machine says the Maximum Wager on a double-up is $5,000, I believe, but I obviously would stop short of drawing a W-2, which means just taking the Royal, anyway.

If this helps, these are your probabilities for either hitting the Royal, or doubling up and stopping when the next would be a handpay for 8/5 JoB at $0.50 = $2.50/hand:

Jacks+: 0.21507064 * (.5)^8 = 0.0008401196875

Two Pair: 0.12929841 * (.5)^7 = 0.001010143828125

Trips: 0.07446275 * (.5)^7 = 0.000581740234375

Straight: 0.01123512 * (.5)^6 = 0.00017554875

Flush: 0.01090156 * (.5)^6 = 0.000170336875

Full Boat: 0.01151368 * (.5)^5 = 0.0003598025

Quads: 0.00236289 * (.5)^4 = 0.000147680625

Straight Flush: 0.00010766 * (.5)^3 = 0.0000134575

Royal Flush: 0.00002489

Like I said, I know the best thing is to technically keep going until I'm either stopped by the fact that the next one would be a handpay or until I lose, but I rode that Flush to $200 and couldn't bring myself to go any further.

I'll tell you this, when the screen says, "You have $100, double to $200," and you're just hovering your finger there trying to decide (on the Spielo, you don't have to hit, "Yes," you just pick the next card) that's a Hell of a rush. Another great rush was just thinking about trying to push it to $400, must have hovered my finger there for a minute or more contemplating, but didn't do it...wonder if I'd have picked the right one?

Didn't have the stones to push it, though, I'm happy with $200. Maybe another day.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
Mission146
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February 9th, 2014 at 12:21:02 PM permalink
Quote: tringlomane

Playing 8/6 JoB for $25 hand wouldn't be any better. DW44 isn't that much more swingy and pays 0.5% better than 8/6 JoB. I'd either play 8/5 JoB for $2.50 hand or 98.91% dw44 for $25/hand, depending on how much variance you want. You can do a mix on the $800. Like grind out the first $600 on 8/5 and really gamble with the rest. All depends on how much risk you want to take with the $800.



If he's not terribly worried about drawing tax forms, then either $25 game would be good for the double-up feature. He wouldn't have to win too many consecutive times, most would be five consecutive on an even money pay with a probability of:

0.214583 * (.5)^5 = 0.00670571875

If he can do that once, successfully double Two Pair four times, Trips three-four times (does exactly $1200 draw forms, or must it be over?), Straight three times, Flush two-three, FH twice, or just get 4OaK, SF or RF then he will be looking at minimum pays of $600, (unless he can go exactly $1,200 and not get a form) and he'd only have to play 32 hands.

I mean, if he doesn't really care about the money...

If he just wants to get as close to the $800 as possible, then I agree with you that he should play a smaller game and be pretty limited on the doubling, if he doubles at all.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
100xOdds
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February 9th, 2014 at 1:09:21 PM permalink
Quote: Mission146

If he's not terribly worried about drawing tax forms, then either $25 game would be good for the double-up feature. He wouldn't have to win too many consecutive times, most would be five consecutive on an even money pay with a probability of:

0.214583 * (.5)^5 = 0.00670571875

If he can do that once, successfully double Two Pair four times, Trips three-four times (does exactly $1200 draw forms, or must it be over?), Straight three times, Flush two-three, FH twice, or just get 4OaK, SF or RF then he will be looking at minimum pays of $600, (unless he can go exactly $1,200 and not get a form) and he'd only have to play 32 hands.

I mean, if he doesn't really care about the money...

If he just wants to get as close to the $800 as possible, then I agree with you that he should play a smaller game and be pretty limited on the doubling, if he doubles at all.



my understanding is w2-g on $1200 or above, so exactly 1200 gets you one. :(
and I try my best not to get a w2-g.

so swing for the fences and play $5 dw44 (98.1%) and double up everytime till the next double up is a w2-g.
or get as close to $800 and place 8/5 joB (97.3%) w/o double up.

since I like getting a rush while gambling, $5 dw44 w/double up is it.
let you know the results after I play this weekend.


edit:
wait.. since I want a double up, then $5 8/6 JoB would be better than $5 dw44 because I should get more wins at 32 spins? thus more chances to play the double up?
Craps is paradise (Pair of dice). Lets hear it for the SpeedCount Mathletes :)
tringlomane
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February 9th, 2014 at 1:57:50 PM permalink
Quote: 100xOdds

my understanding is w2-g on $1200 or above, so exactly 1200 gets you one. :(
and I try my best not to get a w2-g.

so swing for the fences and play $5 dw44 (98.1%) and double up everytime till the next double up is a w2-g.
or get as close to $800 and place 8/5 joB (97.3%) w/o double up.

since I like getting a rush while gambling, $5 dw44 w/double up is it.
let you know the results after I play this weekend.


edit:
wait.. since I want a double up, then $5 8/6 JoB would be better than $5 dw44 because I should get more wins at 32 spins? thus more chances to play the double up?



Technically 8/6 JoB would give more double up opportunities (45.46%), but the difference between JoB and DW44 isn't a lot. DW44 gives you double up chances 44.36% of the time.
AxelWolf
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February 9th, 2014 at 2:06:37 PM permalink
Quote: 100xOdds

my understanding is w2-g on $1200 or above, so exactly 1200 gets you one. :(
and I try my best not to get a w2-g.

so swing for the fences and play $5 dw44 (98.1%) and double up everytime till the next double up is a w2-g.
or get as close to $800 and place 8/5 joB (97.3%) w/o double up.

since I like getting a rush while gambling, $5 dw44 w/double up is it.
let you know the results after I play this weekend.


edit:
wait.. since I want a double up, then $5 8/6 JoB would be better than $5 dw44 because I should get more wins at 32 spins? thus more chances to play the double up?

You may be able to convince someone a double up is accumulated credits not one singe hit and therefor not get a Tax form, doubtful anymore. I have played double ups in the past where they did not give me tax forms. I did this at station casinos and a few other small places without a problem.

I don't know what your goal is, but if you are only running though $800 I don't see the need to go crazy with the double ups. You are not giving up much value playing it normally, personally I would just play $1 machines and double up small hands a few times. Its nice to have value, but value dose not add money to your bankroll or pay the bills. If Bob the Player spends his time playing a Sequential VP machine for 6 months, while getting 150k in value, but loses 25k and someone else hit it, I will be happy to congratulate him on his EV. On the other hand, If DJ the player spends his time playing low risk type plays and pockets 75k from 100k in value. Ill do what DJ is doing, and tell Bob to go F himself.

If you have a hefty bankroll and just want to gamble with the best EV possible, then I get it, have fun.
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
100xOdds
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February 9th, 2014 at 6:35:45 PM permalink
Quote: tringlomane

Technically 8/6 JoB would give more double up opportunities (45.46%), but the difference between JoB and DW44 isn't a lot. DW44 gives you double up chances 44.36% of the time.



ahh.. cool.
thought that since you can blow a $100 bill (80spins) on .25 dw b4 u finish a cig that you wouldn't get as many winning hands as in JoB.
Craps is paradise (Pair of dice). Lets hear it for the SpeedCount Mathletes :)
tringlomane
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February 9th, 2014 at 8:15:00 PM permalink
Quote: 100xOdds

ahh.. cool.
thought that since you can blow a $100 bill (80spins) on .25 dw b4 u finish a cig that you wouldn't get as many winning hands as in JoB.



Eh, they probably play fast, or smoke slow. Or both. And obviously run bad. For someone who plays slower (~400-500 hands per hour), dropping $100 or more in an hour is pretty rough at quarters.
100xOdds
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February 16th, 2014 at 5:00:23 PM permalink
well, I spent my $770 in comps on dw44.
md live changed the $5 vp machines in the high limits area. all but 2 machines are now multi-line progressives.

and only 1 of the remaining 2 machines had deuces wild. it was still dw44, but no more double up. :(
it was a letdown. should have played the 8/6 JoB but since I was looking forward to playing dw44 today, I played it.

$770 comps turned into $570 cash.
74% :(

nothing higher than 4 of a kind. in the 31 hands, the most deuces I saw at the initial deal was 1. :(
Craps is paradise (Pair of dice). Lets hear it for the SpeedCount Mathletes :)
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