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tournamentking
tournamentking
Joined: Nov 22, 2013
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January 22nd, 2014 at 5:54:38 PM permalink
Say WHAT?

I think one of the administrators here has this by-line. I ask WTF? Where am I going wrong?

I've said I was "in training" to be a good video poker player. Today I felt knowledgeable enough to go up to quarters because I've been practicing DDB on B. Dancer's software plus playing it for nickels in a few casinos.

I found what I know is a more than 100% game, 10/6 DDB. I played two 3 hour sit downs. I lost $250 in the first session and $200 in the second. I got no quads at all! I used my slot card and had $40 in free play to go along with this. It's not a lot to lose really, but I kept thinking if I were playing $1 or $2 or even $5, what a loss!

So why would anyone say it doesn't matter if you win or lose but if you made good bets? Huh? I made good bets every hand I played, didn't I? But YES, it certainly DOES matter if I won or lost, and for more than one reason. I just don't get the uncommon sense about ap video poker play. How can anyone not care if they win or lose? What good does it do if good bets are made and you still lose? How is that supposed to make up for a loss that could have been in the thousands of dollars if I played higher limits? Please help!
AxiomOfChoice
AxiomOfChoice
Joined: Sep 12, 2012
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January 22nd, 2014 at 5:55:42 PM permalink
Don't overplay your bankroll. This is where Kelly comes in. Problem solved!
tournamentking
tournamentking
Joined: Nov 22, 2013
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January 22nd, 2014 at 5:58:54 PM permalink
Quote: AxiomOfChoice

Don't overplay your bankroll. This is where Kelly comes in. Problem solved!



But I didn't. If I had played to my bankroll I would have lost at least 8-20 times what I did. If you're saying keep on pumping,within my bankroll and it'll all be alright in the end, I don't get that either. Where's the guarantee?
24Bingo
24Bingo
Joined: Jul 4, 2012
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January 22nd, 2014 at 6:01:09 PM permalink
No guarantees in life. The best you can do is get the odds of a calamity where you can live with them.
The trick to poker is learning not to beat yourself up for your mistakes too much, and certainly not too little, but just the right amount.
AxiomOfChoice
AxiomOfChoice
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January 22nd, 2014 at 6:08:53 PM permalink
Quote: tournamentking

But I didn't. If I had played to my bankroll I would have lost at least 8-20 times what I did. If you're saying keep on pumping,within my bankroll and it'll all be alright in the end, I don't get that either. Where's the guarantee?



Not overplaying your bankroll means that your bets drop as your bankroll shrinks, and it rises as your bankroll rises.

Go you the Wizard's site. Find the standard deviation for the game that you are playing. Divide your edge by the standard deviation. Never, under any circumstances, bet more than this percentage of your bankroll.

So, say you have a 0.5% edge (the game returns 100.5%). Say that the standard deviation for this game is 7 bets. That means that you can't bet more than 0.5%/7 = 1/35 of 1% of your bankroll on any one bet. That means that to play the game for dollars ($5 per hand) you need a bankroll of over 3500*$5=$17,500. Really, it means that if your bankroll ever drops below that point, you need to stop playing and drop down in denominations, and not play again until you are back up above that point.

Some may find this approach too aggressive. Certainly, if you are ever taking money out of your bankroll for expenses, it is WAY too aggressive. In other words, you need an even bigger bankroll. You need over $17,500 that you can devote to gambling AND NOTHING ELSE. This is key, and it's something that a lot of people fail to consider.

Also, are you sure that you have the edge that you think you have? It's one thing for a game to return a certain percentage if you play optimally. It's another to actually play optimally. Almost everyone makes occasional mistakes. You need to take this into consideration when calculating your edge. If the game returns 100.5% but you make 0.2% worth of mistakes then your edge is only 0.3%, not 0.5%. If you make 0.6% worth of mistakes you don't have an edge any more.
DRich
DRich
Joined: Jul 6, 2012
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January 22nd, 2014 at 6:21:39 PM permalink
If you continue playing that game for six hours a day for the next three years your loss should be close to $0. Assuming you play it 100% correct.
DJTeddyBear
DJTeddyBear
Joined: Nov 2, 2009
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January 22nd, 2014 at 7:37:54 PM permalink
Quote: tournamentking

I think one of the administrators here has this by-line. I ask WTF? Where am I going wrong?!

It's not merely "one of the administrators" with that tag-line. It's the Wizad himself.


But you only quoted half the tag-line. Here's the whole thing:
Quote: Wizard's tag-line

It's not whether you win or lose; it's whether or not you had a good bet.


Sure, whether you in or lose is important. It's VERY important.

The point was, having a good bet is more important.
Superstitions are silly, childish, irrational rituals, born out of fear of the unknown. But how much does it cost to knock on wood? Note that the same could be said for Religion. I.E. Religion is nothing more than organized superstition.
mickeycrimm
mickeycrimm
Joined: Jul 13, 2013
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January 22nd, 2014 at 7:45:16 PM permalink
Quote: tournamentking

Say WHAT?

I think one of the administrators here has this by-line. I ask WTF? Where am I going wrong?

I've said I was "in training" to be a good video poker player. Today I felt knowledgeable enough to go up to quarters because I've been practicing DDB on B. Dancer's software plus playing it for nickels in a few casinos.

I found what I know is a more than 100% game, 10/6 DDB. I played two 3 hour sit downs. I lost $250 in the first session and $200 in the second. I got no quads at all! I used my slot card and had $40 in free play to go along with this. It's not a lot to lose really, but I kept thinking if I were playing $1 or $2 or even $5, what a loss!

So why would anyone say it doesn't matter if you win or lose but if you made good bets? Huh? I made good bets every hand I played, didn't I? But YES, it certainly DOES matter if I won or lost, and for more than one reason. I just don't get the uncommon sense about ap video poker play. How can anyone not care if they win or lose? What good does it do if good bets are made and you still lose? How is that supposed to make up for a loss that could have been in the thousands of dollars if I played higher limits? Please help!

lay off that thin edge high varisnce crap, tk. Will give full answer when i get home sunday.
"Quit trying your luck and start trying your skill." Mickey Crimm
AxiomOfChoice
AxiomOfChoice
Joined: Sep 12, 2012
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January 22nd, 2014 at 7:52:21 PM permalink
Quote: mickeycrimm

lay off that thin edge high varisnce crap, tk. Will give full answer when i get home sunday.



I'll take thin edge, high variance. Where can I play $5 10/6 DDB?
tournamentking
tournamentking
Joined: Nov 22, 2013
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January 22nd, 2014 at 8:00:20 PM permalink
I look forward to Crimm's answer later. I understand the safe bankroll point and I will never bet outside my roll. Right now I'm in the $5 video poker bankroll territory with a good margin for safety. I don't plan on playing that high until I get this all figured out. Beardgoat ot whomever, said I'm calling out Wizard. Not at all, he just doesn't know the difference between confusion and ignorance. But he'll learn.

Teddy, I'm concerned as to why making a "good bet" is more important than winning. I'm missing something key here. I feel like a loser jerk after getting pounded by a 25c machine today. Knowing I made "good bets" does nothing for me now. It did BEFORE I played, but after when it counts I'm feeling let down. How do you vp players take these kind of beatings, then still believe in hearts and flowers for tomorrow? My confidence in being even or ahead after 100,000 hands or whatever, stinks right now.

I believe my error rate is miniscule, but who knows?

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