When (and Why) Do You Cash Out?
It got me thinking. Why do people quit playing? Do you quit when you're bored or because you've been playing for 2 hrs and need a break, or do you quit when you reach a certain percentage of profit (or loss)?
I find that if I try to push my profits much beyond 100-150% of my initial investment (i.e., if I put $50 in the machine, I try to quit once I'm up to $150 or more), I end up peaking and ultimately losing money in the end.
So I was just curious to hear people's opinions. Do you tend to quit because of time constraints, or because of financial reasons (either you want to quit while you're ahead, or you want to quit before you lose any more)?
Also, if you wish to count the value of comps such as free play, prizes, food, and rooms, you can also "beat" good losing machines .
"Cashing out" doesn't mean a thing and has no effect on the long term return of the game.
There is no guarantee that you will win playing games that return over 100%. You have to ask yourself is this a gambling device or an ATM??
Quote: sodawaterIt's very simple. if you play VP with a return over 100%, of which there are several games, it is beatable.
Not where I play. There are exactly four machines in my casino that pay 99.1% - I suppose if I add in the slot club advantage, that goes up to 99.2%. So for people like me, cashing out is a very important component of the game, because the long term return will always be in the negative for me.
Quote: CheckCheckRaiseNot where I play. There are exactly four machines in my casino that pay 99.1% - I suppose if I add in the slot club advantage, that goes up to 99.2%. So for people like me, cashing out is a very important component of the game, because the long term return will always be in the negative for me.
If you're playing for fun, when it's not fun anymore.
If you're playing for a quick hit, after you hit.
If you're playing at an advantage as long as you possibly can until it's not an +EV situation anymore.
But just think, I'm in Biloxi if I quit at 299 and had same luck in Vegas, I'm down a grand instead of almost even. That's the variance of video poker. Or maybe if I spent 712 instead of 710 and hit the royal, I'm up a grand. This is the short term variance, you could be up a lot or down a lot, even on a 99.54 or slightly over 100% with perfect play. its only after pouring in huge amounts beyond my means that odds even out to 99.54 or whatever you are playing. So my case is kind of rare in that my small sample and i'm just down a little.
I don't gamble to win money, I gamble for fun. I know the odds, even on a full pay 2 wild machine, I know I make a mistake every couple hundred hands or so giving up that so so slight edge, but hey, I'm just having fun. Luckily I'm close to even. I play till its not fun, such as tired or need a break.
Quote: AlanMendelsonIt is also beatable if you hit winners on games with paytables of less than 100%, if you know how to take the money and run.
This might be, seriously, the least intelligent sentence, ever. You are saying: gambling is beatable if you win. By that definition, any game is beatable, as long as you win. Keno? Beatable, as long as you hit some numbers. Powerball? Very beatable, just win the jackpot and quit.
What does beatable actually mean? It means you can EXPECT a return of over 100%. BEFORE you win or lose.
Quote: CheckCheckRaiseNot where I play. There are exactly four machines in my casino that pay 99.1% - I suppose if I add in the slot club advantage, that goes up to 99.2%. So for people like me, cashing out is a very important component of the game, because the long term return will always be in the negative for me.
When to cash out does not affect your expected return one bit. If you are playing a negative game, you should expect to lose and budget to lose.
When to stop playing? When it's not fun anymore, or when you have somewhere else to go, or when you don't want to lose any additional money.
Quote: sodawater
What does beatable actually mean? It means you can EXPECT a return of over 100%. BEFORE you win or lose.
I guess that could be one definition of "beatable" if that's what you want to use. But why not a definition that says "when you win a coin flip two out of three times" or "you made a $5 bet on boxcars and it hit"??
I really think that it's wrong to pass judgment on anyone for when they decide to quit playing or when they choose to play. People quit for a lot of reasons besides the math of any game. There are bankroll considerations, there are uses of the money won outside of the casino, there is a reason not to risk losing any more than they have already lost, and so on.
I think deciding when to quit is a strictly personal decision and I resent anyone telling me that my own personal reasons about stopping play -- whether it's for ten minutes, or for an hour, or for a trip, or for a year -- might be "wrong." None of us can tell anyone else their decision is "wrong." It's all personal-- and it should be personal.
I personally enjoy the feeling of hitting a big win and taking it home, and I am willing to risk a fixed amount of money per session to hit that "win goal."
If I hit the win goal I feel like a million bucks even if I only won $300. If I lose but don't exceed my "loss limit" I feel like I had a great time trying.
I concede I am a recreational player and this is how I have fun. Those of you who are APs have a different set of personal guidelines and I can't tell you to play differently. You should play the way you want to.
Me? I have hit big wins on negative expectation games and took the money home and that makes me feel like I beat the game and the casino. Sure, I might give it all back on the next trip or over the next ten trips but if I do give it back I will give it back in predetermined amounts that won't be greater than my loss limit for each trip.
You might have a different view. God bless and I hope your dreams come true.
Quote: terapinedI'm actually an individual that's played video poker and my return is just about what you would expect, a small loss. This is actually kind of rare considering how much I have played. I only recently got into video poker about a year ago once I discovered the wizard of odds page. I always play with a strategy cheat sheet. I took a trip out to Biloxi. Played 25 cent 5 coin max bet 9/6 job and after about 300 dollars I hit the Royal for a grand so I'm up 700. I go to Vegas and spend just over 700 over 5 days, nothing. Well I won small amounts here and there but no royal and trip down about 710 so in the end down 10.
But just think, I'm in Biloxi if I quit at 299 and had same luck in Vegas, I'm down a grand instead of almost even. That's the variance of video poker. Or maybe if I spent 712 instead of 710 and hit the royal, I'm up a grand. This is the short term variance, you could be up a lot or down a lot, even on a 99.54 or slightly over 100% with perfect play. its only after pouring in huge amounts beyond my means that odds even out to 99.54 or whatever you are playing. So my case is kind of rare in that my small sample and i'm just down a little.
I don't gamble to win money, I gamble for fun. I know the odds, even on a full pay 2 wild machine, I know I make a mistake every couple hundred hands or so giving up that so so slight edge, but hey, I'm just having fun. Luckily I'm close to even. I play till its not fun, such as tired or need a break.
What an incredibly enlightened perspective! This post captures part of the essence of the Wizard of Odds/Vegas websites, IMO. Know the odds, know the strategy, understand variance, proceed and enjoy.
Quote: AlanMendelsonI guess that could be one definition of "beatable" if that's what you want to use. But why not a definition that says "when you win a coin flip two out of three times" or "you made a $5 bet on boxcars and it hit"??
I really think that it's wrong to pass judgment on anyone for when they decide to quit playing or when they choose to play. People quit for a lot of reasons besides the math of any game. There are bankroll considerations, there are uses of the money won outside of the casino, there is a reason not to risk losing any more than they have already lost, and so on.
I think deciding when to quit is a strictly personal decision and I resent anyone telling me that my own personal reasons about stopping play -- whether it's for ten minutes, or for an hour, or for a trip, or for a year -- might be "wrong." None of us can tell anyone else their decision is "wrong." It's all personal-- and it should be personal.
I personally enjoy the feeling of hitting a big win and taking it home, and I am willing to risk a fixed amount of money per session to hit that "win goal."
If I hit the win goal I feel like a million bucks even if I only won $300. If I lose but don't exceed my "loss limit" I feel like I had a great time trying.
I concede I am a recreational player and this is how I have fun. Those of you who are APs have a different set of personal guidelines and I can't tell you to play differently. You should play the way you want to.
Me? I have hit big wins on negative expectation games and took the money home and that makes me feel like I beat the game and the casino. Sure, I might give it all back on the next trip or over the next ten trips but if I do give it back I will give it back in predetermined amounts that won't be greater than my loss limit for each trip.
You might have a different view. God bless and I hope your dreams come true.
Alan there is nothing wrong with your attitude/perspective, but I think you may be misleading people by implying that you can win long term by "quitting while you're ahead." This is just clearly not true. Sure, you can win big on -EV games, we've all done it, and we've all given it back. But unless you're playing with an edge, you should expect to lose and be delighted to win.
That's all I'm saying. Individual results will vary. Play the way you feel the most comfortable, but don't knock those who leave with a win and don't play long enough to put it back.
I am going to ask all of you to try this:
Keep a log when you play. Nothing formal. But I want you to jot down if at any time you were "ahead" or showing a profit. Next, write down to the best of your ability what your biggest profit was during that session, day or trip.
Do that for five sessions, days or trips and tell me in what percentage of sessions (or days or trips) you were ahead and add up what the total was for the highest points of your profits.
After you have done that, then let's talk again.
Quote: AlanMendelsonHow do you know you will give it back? Pocket enough wins and control your losses and you will be ahead. You can't make generalizations such as "you will lose playing negative expectation games" just as you can't make generalizations such as "you will win playing positive expectation games."
That's all I'm saying. Individual results will vary. Play the way you feel the most comfortable, but don't knock those who leave with a win and don't play long enough to put it back.
I am going to ask all of you to try this:
Keep a log when you play. Nothing formal. But I want you to jot down if at any time you were "ahead" or showing a profit. Next, write down to the best of your ability what your biggest profit was during that session, day or trip.
Do that for five sessions, days or trips and tell me in what percentage of sessions (or days or trips) you were ahead and add up what the total was for the highest points of your profits.
After you have done that, then let's talk again.
This is a simple thing to show see if you just knew when to stop you could be ahead big time, but it relies on a horribly flawed idea. Yes at some point I was at a maximum and it may have been a profit and had I stopped there yeah I'm a winner and if I do that with every session awesome yay me. The problem is you don't know when you're at your maximum. Your effectively saying if you knew exactly when you would win and when you would lose you'd never lose because you just wouldn't play. But if I had such amazing powers of clairvoyance gambling effectively does just become an ATM. I'd know that when I sat down I wouldn't win so I wouldn't play that day next day I'd come and know I'd win and play exactly to my maximum and go home repeat this process ad infinitum.
In DW, if you take out 4 Deuces and the Royal, the RTP is about 89% (once every 4,444 hands).
In DDB, if you take away all 4 of a Ks or better, the RTP is about 79% (4 of a K or better every 395 hands or so).
In DB, if you take away 4 of a Ks or better, the RTP is about 81% (you get a 4 of a K or better once every 400 hands or so).
So when you think about it, the odds are that in DDB and DB at a $.25 machine, you'll have to put through about $500 in play and lose about $100 before you see a 4 of a K. For DW, you'll have to put through about $5500 in play (and lose about $550 before you see the deuces).
That's why bankroll requirements and discipline in VP are huge. Because these events are unpredictable and highly variable, you may see the key hand (the 4 of a K or better) early or you may be waiting a very long time.
Each machine should be played with a loss limit and a set time to quit. For me, if I am playing DW at $.25 I will play with $250 which is equal to the 4 Deuces return. Once that's gone, it's gone. That gives me, on average about 2,500 hands of non-deuce action and will last about 4 hours on a single play machine. If I hit the deuces (or better), I'm done.
If I am playing DB, I will play with $200 which gives me about 800 hands (about 90 minutes) of action without a 4 of a K and set a two hour time limit. If I hit a 4 of a K and my bankroll goes ahead, I will play down to the nearest $10 demonination and quit.
Quote: CheckCheckRaiseNot where I play. There are exactly four machines in my casino that pay 99.1% - I suppose if I add in the slot club advantage, that goes up to 99.2%. So for people like me, cashing out is a very important component of the game, because the long term return will always be in the negative for me.
Then it's not beatable. When people say "VP is beatable," they mean VP that returns over 100%, or is comped well enough compared to the edge that it might as well. The machines you describe are not. Play them for excitement or not at all.
(Although, honestly, between the complex and unforgiving strategy, the tiny edge, and the massive variance, with a distribution of results that makes grinding harder than even that variance would suggest, it may be generous to call even full-pay VP "beatable.")
(And for the love of all things holy, don't listen to AlanMendelson.)
Quote: AlanMendelsonHow do you know you will give it back? Pocket enough wins and control your losses and you will be ahead. You can't make generalizations such as "you will lose playing negative expectation games" just as you can't make generalizations such as "you will win playing positive expectation games."
Sure. There's nothing untrue there. In the short term, anything can happen.
Quote:That's all I'm saying. Individual results will vary. Play the way you feel the most comfortable, but don't knock those who leave with a win and don't play long enough to put it back.
I'm not trying to knock anyone. I just think your premise is flawed. Yes you can win sometimes at -EV games. Lots of times in fact! But trying to "quit while you're ahead" is not a long-term strategy. In the long term, the longer you play the less likely you will ever be ahead. It just a very John Patrick-type thing to say and I think it really goes against what this site stands for, in my very humble opinion.
All of your gambling activities are one big, long session. If quitting while you're ahead makes you feel good and you have fun, go for it. Just don't fool yourself into thinking you're getting around the house edge.
Know the odds, know the strategy, understand variance, enjoy.
Quote: IbeatyouracesWinning at a game and beating a game are two totally different senarios.
Excellent. I would agree with this: you can't beat a negative expectation game, but you can win at a negative expectation game.
In reality, I don't care about "beating it," but I do want to "win" at it.
Quote: boymimboWith VP, the posted long term return might be anywhere from 96 to 100%, but the actual return is much lower than that for most people:
In DW, if you take out 4 Deuces and the Royal, the RTP is about 89% (once every 4,444 hands).
Which Deuces are you playing?!?! ;) I get about 95% for FPDW without these events.
As for the general topic, often when I am "done". Lost the amount I wanted to lose, or hit a time limit/constraint, or I am simply tired of playing.
It is psychologically tougher to grind out an +EV machine using "your" money as opposed to "winnings". If you hit a wild royal in the beginning you have enough float to play through the winnings.
That's probably why I don't like DDB or any high variance VP, because bankroll requirements would be astronomical compared to a stable game. That's also assuming the game returns over 100%. If it's <100% your bankroll considerations would be infinity since you're losing money per hand.
Quote: djatcAlso consider the 1 in however many odds that you could siphon $100 in no time flat because you weren't hitting your fair share of lower hands as well. Even money on 3 of a kinds on DW needs to happen enough times to keep playing, and even money would mean you don't get ahead nor behind.
It is psychologically tougher to grind out an +EV machine using "your" money as opposed to "winnings". If you hit a wild royal in the beginning you have enough float to play through the winnings.
That's probably why I don't like DDB or any high variance VP, because bankroll requirements would be astronomical compared to a stable game. That's also assuming the game returns over 100%. If it's <100% your bankroll considerations would be infinity since you're losing money per hand.
Yes those times suck, but if trips at DW truly pay me "even money", I am grinding that forever. "Even money" typically means 1 to 1, or 2 for 1. :P
And I like DDB, but I don't ever plan to win at it either...lol
I'm currently liking it more though because my last two sessions playing the game have been winners. :)
Quote: IbeatyouracesRight, anyone can win at a -EV game. All -EV means is that the payoff does not exceed the odds of every possible situation. Doesn't mean you'll always lose. A beatable game is just the opposite, one where the payoff DOES exceed the odds over every situation.
Ahhh... but it doesn't mean you will "win" does it?
I've played sessions on positive games and lost. It's not like pushing the buttons on an ATM.
Quote: AlanMendelsonAhhh... but it doesn't mean you will "win" does it?
I've played sessions on positive games and lost. It's not like pushing the buttons on an ATM.
And that's why they call it gambling? But the longer you play, the closer you will get to the machine's expected payback.
Where did you find 9/6 $.25 JOB in Biloxi?
Oops! Just checked vpFREE2. Sorry!
I decide before I go how much I'm willing to lose, and if I hit that point, I say, well, not today and quit.
If I'm on a winning streak on a machine, I watch where I top out, and continue to play until I've lost back 1/4 of my winnings; then I either change machines or quit as a winner.
Tables, I have larger parameters than machines for winning, because I trust the cards not to have a memory more than I trust the machine setups. I play mostly red (5 dollar increments) on games that have odds bets (like ultimate texas hold-em). When I get green/black, I hide them from myself (say, stackup under whites or something) so I have to think before they go back into play. Silly game w/myself, I know, but works for me. I tend to get up with more than my buy-in about 2 to 1 times gambling, and since I'm strict about my loss floor, overall I'm well ahead. But no guarantee that streak will continue.
