indian Casino Fair or rigged Bonus Deuces video poker.

I play a lot of Bonus Deuces Wild at a local Indian Casino.
Until recently it seemed to provide a fair game.
Recently all the other Bonus Deuces Wild players that I have talked with think something is not right.
I saw on the wizard of odds website that you should be dealt a deuce approx. 1 in 3 hands and dealt 2 deuces approx. 1 in 15 hands.
I took a pen and pad with me and counted the hands with out a deuce and the hands that I was dealt 1 or more deuces. I was not happy
with the results.
How many hands do I need to track to know for certain with in a 90% or better confidence if the machine is rigged or if the machine is fair?
The Indian casino is in north county San Diego I have a feeling that they are self regulating and therefore no one to report to if the results turn out to be rigged and not fair.

On a Class III machine, the frequency of being dealt a specific number of deuces is:

4 deuces ... once every 54,145.00 hands
3 deuces ... once every 00,576.01 hands
2 deuces ... once every 00,025.04 hands
1 deuces ... once every 00,003.34 hands
0 deuces ... once every 00,001.52 hands

Are you sure these aren't Class II machines?

Quote: johnc

I play a lot of Bonus Deuces Wild at a local Indian Casino.
Until recently it seemed to provide a fair game.
Recently all the other Bonus Deuces Wild players that I have talked with think something is not right.
I saw on the wizard of odds website that you should be dealt a deuce approx. 1 in 3 hands and dealt 2 deuces approx. 1 in 15 hands.
I took a pen and pad with me and counted the hands with out a deuce and the hands that I was dealt 1 or more deuces. I was not happy
with the results.
How many hands do I need to track to know for certain with in a 90% or better confidence if the machine is rigged or if the machine is fair?
The Indian casino is in north county San Diego I have a feeling that they are self regulating and therefore no one to report to if the results turn out to be rigged and not fair.

use a iPad or something to Record 1 or 2 hrs worth of play. 1 coin if you think its gaffed. if the numbers still seem off then upload it somewhere and post a link. Someone will be able to tell you if something seems off.

Quote: johnc

I play a lot of Bonus Deuces Wild at a local Indian Casino.
Until recently it seemed to provide a fair game.
Recently all the other Bonus Deuces Wild players that I have talked with think something is not right.

You are in their Nation.

Quote: johnc

I saw on the wizard of odds website that you should be dealt a deuce approx. 1 in 3 hands and dealt 2 deuces approx. 1 in 15 hands.
I took a pen and pad with me and counted the hands with out a deuce and the hands that I was dealt 1 or more deuces.
I was not happy with the results.

Chance of NOT being dealt a 2 on the draw =
(48/52)*(47/51)*(46/50)*(45/49)*(44/48) = 205,476,480/311,875,200 = 0.658841998
106,398,720/311,875,200 = 0.341158002 the probability of getting at least 1 deuce on the draw.
(you can check my math)

Quote: johnc

How many hands do I need to track to know for certain with in a 90% or better confidence if the machine is rigged or if the machine is fair?

This is high school question stuff that can be found in many math text books.
Here is the formula
(z_score/error)^2*(p*(1-p))

You also need to know what kind of error you are willing to accept.
The error decreases by a factor of 10 when the sample size is increased by 100.
I show (using Excel)
90% interval with a 1% error
6,081 min hands
p+error: 0.351158002
p: 0.341158002
p-error: 0.331158002

90% interval with a .1% error
608,123 min hands
p+error: 0.342158002
p: 0.341158002
p-error: 0.340158002

90% confidence interval is still quite narrow
how about a 99% interval

99% interval with a 1% error
14,913 min hands
p+error: 0.351158002
p: 0.341158002
p-error: 0.331158002

99% interval with a .1% error
1,491,321 min hands
p+error: 0.342158002
p: 0.341158002
p-error: 0.340158002

Quote: johnc

The Indian casino is in north county San Diego I have a feeling that they are self regulating and therefore no one to report to if the results turn out to be rigged and not fair.

I dislike very much ALL SoCal Indian casino VP machines. You are in their Nation and it is true that there are guidlines set by the State of CA, there is no enforcement.
Even Card Clubs in CA have no regulations except for what games they can offer.

I have heard the same complaints too.
I do not like any of the many SoCal Indian Casinos I have played VP at. But that is me.
I choose NOT to play a video poker machine at any CA Indian casino.
It is my right.
Every Indian Casino I have seen in SoCal is class 3, just like Vegas.

Good Luck

Quote: 7craps

I dislike very much ALL SoCal Indian casino VP machines. You are in their Nation and it is true that there are guidlines set by the State of CA, there is no enforcement.
Even Card Clubs in CA have no regulations except for what games they can offer.

I have heard the same complaints too.
I do not like any of the many SoCal Indian Casinos I have played VP at. But that is me.
I choose NOT to play a video poker machine at any CA Indian casino.
It is my right.
Every Indian Casino I have seen in SoCal is class 3, just like Vegas.

Good Luck

So basically, you feel like there is a significant chance they are rigging the game if it is Class III, and you still don't trust them enough to play video poker there?

Quote: tringlomane

So basically, you feel like there is a significant chance they are rigging the game if it is Class III, and you still don't trust them enough to play video poker there?

"significant chance". Greater than 0. Yes.
I feel the probability of being a rigged VP machine(s) in any CA Indian casino is NOT 0.
I still play card games and poker at Indian casinos. No slots or VP machines.

Remember the American Coin Cheating Video Poker machines in Las Vegas in the 1990s
Larry Volk getting killed? I do.
It can easily happen again in an Indian casino and I would not blame the Indians for cheating with their machines.
They have about a 0% chance of getting caught IMO.

White man cheated them Indians for years... even in CA
Payback time!

I usually don't trust Indian casinos either.

Heck, they could be honest, but someone within the tribe could be skmming the profits with some funky play on machines. You just don't know.

The day they decide to advertise outside auditors/regulators, will be a good day. (if ever)

Ironically enough, my biggest hit all year, $100 on a nickel Double Super Times Pay machine was at Four Winds casino in Michigan, the first time I have ever been there. Unless there is some signal connected to the playing card indicating "new white man sucker", I doubt it was rigged since the machine only returned 96.74% anyway. Hopefully the biggest hit mark for the year will change in Vegas next month, where I question rigging less. :)