Three Card Poker

Quote: FinsRule

If the cards are not shuffled correctly after each hand. Got it.

Assume adequate shuffling (e.g. a Shuffle Master iDeal).

I can think of a few situations,some of which have happened to me.
I won`t post the details but lets just say the dealer didn`t know the rules of the game.

There are a variety of games where you have a choice of (R = Raise which in three card is 1)
(a) looking and playing odds against (i.e. folding bad hands, losing 1; only playing good hands and hopefully winning R+1)
(b) blind and playing odds on (i.e. good/bad hands win 1 if dealer not qualify, bad hands lose R+1).

The difference is quite easy as with good hands you'd always play, so the only case to worry about is bad hands.
Ignoring when your Q43 beats Q32 (you actually gain +2 if you play)....
(a) FOLD - You make the correct decision if the dealer qualifies 70% and the wrong if he doesn't 30%. Thus you gain the "raise" you didn't make 70% of the time, and 30% of the time it cost you two (you lost 1 rather than winning 1). 70% +1 vs 30% -2
(b) PLAY - The reverse applies, if the dealer qualifies you lose an extra one, if the dealer doesn't you win rather than lose. 70% -1 vs 30% +2.

Thus you are better to FOLD bad hands and take the -1 rather than have a 30% chance of winning 1 and 70% chance of losing 2.

fwiw In 5-card poker the percentages as much closer (except A K) and with AK you are risking +1 vs -3 at about 49% 51% rather than -1.

Actual values are about 30.4% 69.6%; and for 5-card close when have AK yourself, otherwise is nearly 45.7% and even worse if the dealer has A or K.

the only way to put the odds in yr favour in 3cp is to sit really low in seat one and find a weak dealer who exposes his/her bottom card......you adjust the proper strategy to the card you see and sit back and let your edge make you money.....some casinos now hide the bottom card because of this.

Wow.

Can't believe NO ONE can read.

Instead, they all complicate this situation with thinking of their own, so I wil start it again....let's see if ANYONE can follow along.

FOR THE SAKE OF ME KNOWING, AND NO OTHER REASON, Not for a strategy, not for profit, simply as 'what are the percentage odds', all I ask is.......

....and lets get ready for it....

.....only take these factors please. If a 52 card deck is played, and 3 cards are given to player A, and 3 cards are given to player B, what are the odds of player A winning (all I want to know, is the winning factor) if player B can not play if he holds a J high or lower?


Don't bother responding if you are NOT going to respond with the edge % of player A & player B. And don't bother explaining the payout , because that is not what this question is about.

Thanks, happy gamblin'.

I'm sure you'll get lots of great responses with that approach.

You say we can't read. Let me remind you of your first post, sir.

Quote: QikGT

\was wondering IF it is at all possible to shift the odds to the players advantage if always playing the bet (never folding).

So what if the player never folds, even with Q,6,4 or less?

Then throw in the rule that a dealer must qualify, does this not take the player from a 50/50 to a higher advantage as the dealer may not qualify?

What are the odds of a dealer qualifying? And from there, what are the odds of the dealer winning the hand.

So why not reverse the rules on the house. Player is always in, House now must decide (qualify) on playing on.

Regardless of te amount you make, the question remains, what are odds of winning if you always go in?

You say we can't read, yet you asked several questions OTHER than "what is the percentage of wins if you play blind" That led most of us to believe you wanted some help about why playing blind was a bad idea. But clearly you just want justification that your system will work. OK, here it is: You will win about 60% of the time. However, like the roulette bet of playing 2 out of 3 columns, you will win less on those 60% than you will lose on the 40%, making it better to fold the worst of your losers (Q64 and under). If you'd rather not fold, no problem. You'll win about 3 of every 5 hands, and you'll be giving the casino about 5 cents more of every dollar you bet than you would if you played smartly. But yes, you will win more hands.

Quote: QikGT

Don't bother responding if you are NOT going to respond with the edge % of player A & player B. And don't bother explaining the payout , because that is not what this question is about.

Uhoh, here I am responding without telling you the edge % of player A. Geez, lighten up.

Quote: SOOPOO

Im ok at math. Captain of my high school math team. ( I got to wear the coveted number pi). Perfect 800 on math achievement test. 4th place in NYC math competition. Sooooo.... if the 70% figure is correct.... the dealer wont qualify 30% of the time. So 30% of the time a hand will be j high or worse. So 9% of the time you will both have j high or worse (an approximation because if you know 3 cards are out and are j high or worse then the remaining 49 cards a re 'rich' in higher cards). And half of the time you both don't 'qualify' you would have had a worse hand than the dealer, but will now win because the dealer is forfeiting. So if 70% is correct, then you will win approximately 54.5% of the time.

Can't YOU read? This is the answer to your question. approximately 54.5%

But seriously, no one here works for you. You are asking people a FAVOR to help you out. I can assure you berating the forum members who do not answer exactly as you like will not engender future positive responses to your questions. I already told you, if you give us a clue as to WHY you are asking a question it is more likely we can help you out.

SOOPOO is right.

The dealer qualifies on 69.5% of hands. You will win about 54.49% of the time. That doesn't matter though because you are risking 2 units to win 1. That's where the house advantage comes in. On average you will lose 0.06639 units (HA 6.639%). Note that I am assuming two independent decks.

The fact is that when you raise blindly with a non qualified hand (J high or less), you will on average, lose 1.08778 units. That's because you win 1 unit 6,720 / 22,100 of the time but lose 2 units 15,380 22,100 of the time. When you throw in an unqualified hand, you lose 1 unit.

On average then, you will lose an extra unit about every twelve unqualified hands. On a 4 hour 3 card session, you will see about 120 hands. On average, you will have 36 unqualified hands which will cost you, on average 3 units by using this betting strategy. On a single session then, you are probably within the variance to believe that betting blind is helpful. There will be a few times when the dealer flops more than the average non-qualifiers leading you to believe that betting blind is the right way to go. And perhaps, for that session, it would have been. But hindsight is 20/20.