Is posting on Craigslist a good idea?

Someone post a request for investor of a new Blackjack side bet on Craigslist, Investor Wanted. Is it a good idea? I think by my posting it here, he will get a broader exposure. Well, why not we talk about his side bet? Betting on a Blackjack??

Serious investors do not look in such a place for ideas, they get ideas that come to them. Posting here might get you some leads and feedback.

There is a lot of information both here and on WoV about what a long process selling a game will be. Check it out before you proceed.

First, for reasons I won't go into in public, I doubt that bet will ever be patented. Second, the house edge is way too strong, and actually illegal in some jurisdictions. Third, the fact that the bet is being reviewed by gaming distributors means nothing. The only thing that matters is actually signing a distribution contract. Fourth, a bet that can only be made every 21 hands isn't going to be worth much to a casino. Even the Fire Bet on craps can be made every 8.5 rolls.

Asking for investors before any vetting has been done at all is an uninformed decision, in my opinion. The inventor should do his research first.

Quote: MathExtremist

First, for reasons I won't go into in public, I doubt that bet will ever be patented. Second, the house edge is way too strong, and actually illegal in some jurisdictions. Third, the fact that the bet is being reviewed by gaming distributors means nothing. The only thing that matters is actually signing a distribution contract. Fourth, a bet that can only be made every 21 hands isn't going to be worth much to a casino. Even the Fire Bet on craps can be made every 8.5 rolls.

Asking for investors before any vetting has been done at all is an uninformed decision, in my opinion. The inventor should do his research first.

What would you estimate the house edge is on that bet? I tried to do a back-of-the-envelope, but I don't have a lot of experience even though I have a degree in software engineering (d'oh).
You're basically betting that the next card is 10-valued, for a 1.5 payoff. Assuming an infinite deck, then.
4/13*1.5+9/13*-1 = -.23
23% house edge? Yeah, that would be pretty brutal, but I think I messed something up.

No, you didn't mess up. The vig is slightly worse than the infinite deck numbers because in order to even make the bet, at least one 10 has to be out of the deck already (the one in your natural), so that's one less 10 for you to win the bet. It's most noticeable in single deck games -- if you win with a natural vs. 6 showing, you have p(win) = 15/49 and an EV of -23.47%. That's not even legal in New Jersey.

Quote: UCivan

Someone post a request for investor of a new Blackjack side bet on Craigslist, Investor Wanted. Is it a good idea? I think by my posting it here, he will get a broader exposure. Well, why not we talk about his side bet? Betting on a Blackjack??

Regardless of HE or not, you want to look at the history of optional bets. To count this in the side bet category is kind of a misleading. There isn't an "extra bet" that can be made every hand; instead it is situational. Further, while the gambler is wagering their original amount plus their winnings, it's only a side bet in the fact that it is additional to the game.

Back to the history... "Casino Surrender" was a "game" where the house offered 1/2 of your bet to win when the player had 20 against a dealer face card. This prevented the whining of "20s always push or lose." Some houses advertised this heavily, so much that one time I wanted to surrender a 16 against a face, only to find out it was a totally different bet. In fact, most Caesars properties CURRENTLY OFFER THIS OPTION... guess what, they don't advertise it much, and players rarely take advantage of it.

I see Super 31 as the exact same thing. It's not going to be an install anywhere, as no casino in their right mind would pay for the rights for a table layout change. They might offer the rule, but it's not going to get much action, as other posters pointed out. I'd stay away from this as an "investment" opportunity and look at it as a "scam."

Quote: MathExtremist

No, you didn't mess up. The vig is slightly worse than the infinite deck numbers because in order to even make the bet, at least one 10 has to be out of the deck already (the one in your natural), so that's one less 10 for you to win the bet. It's most noticeable in single deck games -- if you win with a natural vs. 6 showing, you have p(win) = 15/49 and an EV of -23.47%. That's not even legal in New Jersey.

Seems pretty silly since the proprietor of this "side" bet clearly doesn't understand math or the house edge, and just used 3:2 as that is the already existing payout on a BJ. It would be easy enough to tweak the payout on the "Super 31" bet to arrive at something reasonable for a bonus bet.

As to the original question, given what this guy is trying to sell, posting on Craigslist might not be a bad idea; the kind of people looking for "investment" opportunities there might actually be sold on it.

Okay, I have used too many "quotes" in this post.

Quote: AcesAndEights

Seems pretty silly since the proprietor of this "side" bet clearly doesn't understand math or the house edge, and just used 3:2 as that is the already existing payout on a BJ. It would be easy enough to tweak the payout on the "Super 31" bet to arrive at something reasonable for a bonus bet.

Perhaps, but a higher payout and lower house edge would be fatal to potential revenue. Since you can only ever make the bet after a natural, you're looking at a side bet that can only be made maybe 3-6 times per hour per player. Attach a reasonable house edge and the bet can't make enough money.

Quote: AZDuffman

Serious investors do not look in such a place for ideas.

He's only asking for $1,000 from each investor.

I don't think he's looking for "serious" investors.

And because of THAT, I don't think it's such a bad idea to look for investors on CraigsList.

What happen to the adult entertainment ads on CraigsList?