Baccarat and card counting-is the Wizard wrong?

About card counting in Baccarat: There is an online casino where the cut card is put ahead last 7 cards in the eight-deck shoe. So in best scenario the last Baccarat hand will be played with only 7 cards remaining. Given that the player can get the precise odds real-time using a calc such as this, wouldn't there be an advantageous scenario here? What I would be interested to know is the ratio of all shoes that yield some kind of edge (either for player, banker or tie) on the last hand with 7-12 cards remaining, because if the ratio is low, then it is simply too much effort to track every card in a shoe accurately.

Quote: Jufo81

About card counting in Baccarat: There is an online casino where the cut card is put ahead last 7 cards in the eight-deck shoe. So in best scenario the last Baccarat hand will be played with only 7 cards remaining. Given that the player can get the precise odds real-time using a calc such as this, wouldn't there be an advantageous scenario here? What I would be interested to know is the ratio of all shoes that yield some kind of edge (either for player, banker or tie) on the last hand with 7-12 cards remaining, because if the ratio is low, then it is simply too much effort to track every card in a shoe accurately.

Seems like if all that were remaining were 10s and face cards, you would clean up betting on ties. So the edge has to be high even if there were one or maybe two other cards. The wizard's work on baccarat generally says don't bother counting, but you may be describing a situation where it would be worth it.

Quote: odiousgambit

Seems like if all that were remaining were 10s and face cards, you would clean up betting on ties. So the edge has to be high even if there were one or maybe two other cards. The wizard's work on baccarat generally says don't bother counting, but you may be describing a situation where it would be worth it.

Yes, you would have 900% return on the tie bet if the last seven cards were all tens. However, the odds for that is low and only a fraction of all shoes happen to end with seven cards remaining for the last hand. However, doing a little playing with the Baccarat calculator, one can get many combinations with a player edge. For example if the remaining shoe is 4 tens, 2 fives and 1 eight, then the tie bet has a 46% player edge as well as 3.5% player edge for the banker bet.

It's obvious that there exists player edge situations with this game. The only interesting question is whether these situations occur frequently enough for the exact tracking of cards to be worthvile. If 1% of all shoes yields an edge, it is not worth the effort, but if 10% of shoes does it, then it might be.

Between the deep penetration and the ability to use a computer, I do think that game is very countable. I'd need to run simulations to determine the ratio of positive bets, which I don't intend to do, but my educated guess is that at least 10% of shoes should have at least one good bet. As was mentioned already, most good bets will likely be on the tie.

Here's a seemingly good article about exploiting the Tie bet. Maybe the Wizard will comment about this on his Baccarat card counting page at WizardOfOdds.com.

Quote: MichaelBluejay

Here's a seemingly good article about exploiting the Tie bet. Maybe the Wizard will comment about this on his Baccarat card counting page at WizardOfOdds.com.

That article in part says, " Assuming we make our last wager having seen all but a generous 8-13 cards." It is my understanding that in baccarat the cut card is placed 16 cards from the end of the shoe. When it comes out, they finish that hand, and then play one more. If it comes out as the first card of a hand, they finish that hand, and then shuffle. So, the best case scenario is it comes out after one card, and five more cards come out that hand. That would leave 11 unseen cards. The worst case scenario is 16 more cards. The following table shows the probability of all even cards according to the number of cards remaining.

Cards Left	Probability
11	1 in 209
12	1 in 339
13	1 in 551
14	1 in 895
15	1 in 1455
16	1 in 2364

On average, you'll get a positive bet once every 509 shoes. Doesn't sound like a practical advantage play to me. I think Thorp, Griffin, and me are right in saying that baccarat is, for all practical purposes, not countable.

I've said this before, but if there were an angle counting baccarat, it would be on the pair bets.

Quote: WoO

At the start of a new shoe, the dealer will turn over one card. This will determine how many cards the dealer will burn, according to the baccarat value, except a 10 or face card will result in 10 cards burned.

This quote is from the Wiz of Odds site. Unless these burn cards are burned face up, it adds 1 to 10 unseen cards.

Quote: miplet

This quote is from the Wiz of Odds site. Unless these burn cards are burned face up, it adds 1 to 10 unseen cards.

You're referring to the front of the shoe. The first card refers to the number of burned cards, which are shown to the players.

Quote: Wizard

You're referring to the front of the shoe. The first card refers to the number of burned cards, which are shown to the players.

Ok, I assumed that burned cards were not shown to the player in baccarat as they are not shown blackjack.