Is the risk reward of this situation good enough to warrant going after this opportunity? Here are the details - it is a tribal casino( not in Michigan) that has some sloppy dealers. You can catch the first communal card every time and one hole card most of the time. I think the edge is in the double digits. AP heat has a few little things about ultimate Texas holecard strategy but I am not privy to Grosjeans book strategy. If this game was in Nevada It would be a no brainer to play. It is the fact it is a tribal that is giving me some doubt about whether the EV is worth it.
Do you need a tactical flashlight? When will people ever learn?
Table max bet is 50 bucks. Management seems oblivious. No flashlight required lol just good powers of observation
Different kinds of modifications to Basic Strategy will vary in "detectability." Think of it as 3 different categories of actions you might take depending upon the specifics of what you have seen:
1. Bet 4X on a pre-flop hand that you would normally check
- Betting 4X on any hand that is K-x, Q-x, J-x or T-x is very unlikely to attract attention
- (MOST PROVOCATIVE) Betting 4X on 32o, or really on any hand that is 5-x or lower.
2. Check a preflop hand that you normally would have Bet 4X on.
- Will usually be NOT PROVOCATIVE, except in the rare case when you might check a medium to high pair.
3 Deviate from normal strategy when making the postflop or river decisions (based on dealer HC.)
- NOT PROVOCATIVE
I can't imagine that #2 or #3 is ever going to attract any heat -and they will help your EV! The most provocative actions will almost always be on preflop plays, and on those preflop plays that yield the least advantage, relatively. For the sake of cover, you might wish to avoid the most provocative plays until you get a feel for the table and what you can reasonably get away with. There seems to be plenty of edge here - getting greedy might be counterproductive.