gordonm888
gordonm888
Joined: Feb 18, 2015
  • Threads: 20
  • Posts: 488
September 24th, 2016 at 10:27:00 AM permalink
The principle advantages of seeing the dealer's cards should be in two categories of player hands:

- 2-pair hands, for obvious reasons
- high one-pair hands, for less obvious reasons. Particularly AA/A-Jok with 5 singletons, which I estimate to have an average EV improvement of 0.13.

When you have an AA hand such as AA-xxxxx, the front hand, by definition, cannot have an ace and thus is weaker than usual. The AAxxx back hand will win some 70% of the time, but the dividing line between positive EV and negative EV for a one-pair AA hand is actually AA - QJ743. Weaker kickers than QJ743 result in a negative EV and stronger kickers result in a positive EV.

In face-up pai gow, when player sees that the dealer's back hand is better than AA, the player should split the Aces like this: AJ/AQ743 and have a front hand, AJ, that can beat a lot more hands than QJ. The improvement in EV for this specific hand will be about +0.12.

But there is another angle. When you have a One Pair A-A hand (or A-Joker) how often will the dealer show up with an AA-xxx in the backhand ?

- when you hold AA-xxxxx, dealer will play AA-xxx or A-Jok-xxx in the backhand 4.0% of the time
- when you hold AJok-xxxxx, dealer will play AA-xxx in the backhand 4.7% of the time.

Whenever these situations occur, you can improve the strength of your hand by splitting your aces, as mentioned earlier. But when dealer has another pair in the front hand or two unbeatable singletons, you can strengthen your backhand by playing your two weakest kickers in the front.

Example: Dealer: KQ/ AA-T93

If you have A-Jok- J7642 you would normally lose this hand, but can push by playing it as 42/A-Jok-J76.

I think this tactic will add another 0.011 in EV to an AA-xxxxx hand. So overall, I would expect that a face-up dealers hand will improve the average EV of a One Pair AA hand by about 0.12 + 0.01=0.13.
Paradigm
Paradigm
Joined: Feb 24, 2011
  • Threads: 40
  • Posts: 2011
September 24th, 2016 at 11:12:45 AM permalink
I think the key fact to consider here is not so much the exact HE behind the game change (assuming the HE is relatively close to normal PGP), but the appeal of the game change to the average PGP player. I think that perceived value in seeing the dealer's hand first will be a real novelty at first and should draw some nice action early on.

The question will be if there is long term perceived value in this game benefit. I think that will come down to how often the dealer hand information is useful to a player and changes a loss hand under normal hand setting strategy to a push or a winning hand due to the knowledge of the dealer's hand. Compare that with the frequency of not winning in on a dealer Ace High Pai Gow hand.

Ultimately if the house edge is reasonable compared to regular PGP (I don't like the commission piece of this game at Thunder Valley on top of the Ace High Pai Gow mechanism) and the players feel like they are getting real benefit in changing their strategy as a result of seeing the dealer's hand, this game would look very promising.

So for the math experts, here is the question: What is the frequency of changing the setting of your hand and pushing or winning as a result of the change? What is the frequency of an Ace High Pai Gow for the dealer that results in a push vs. a win? Therein lies the keys to player's perceived value of seeing the dealer's hand and will drive the long term success of this PGP variant...it looks very interesting.
Attempting to add value one post at a time
Paigowdan
Paigowdan
Joined: Apr 28, 2010
  • Threads: 115
  • Posts: 5692
September 24th, 2016 at 11:56:19 AM permalink
I think this is a fine version of double exposure PGP.
The use of the new feature ability or Humdinger should be 1 in 10 hands or so, or typically seen and used enough during an average session, and I believe this qualifies. To get the true number, a sim may be required. A sharp PGP notices how often that an alternate hand setting would have saved the hand or had won it, and yeah it seems to be often enough. Freebet BJ is hot because the feature is frequently enough seen and used. What answers this question is whether the game gets action and positive reviews by real players.
Beware of all enterprises that require new clothes - Henry David Thoreau. Like Dealers' uniforms - Dan.
SM777
SM777
Joined: Apr 8, 2016
  • Threads: 0
  • Posts: 187
September 24th, 2016 at 12:02:10 PM permalink
Why do people think seeing the dealer's hand in Pai Gow is such an advantage?

The occurrences in which you would set your a hand a different way then you would without having seen the dealers hand, and win is so minimal.
Paradigm
Paradigm
Joined: Feb 24, 2011
  • Threads: 40
  • Posts: 2011
September 24th, 2016 at 12:05:40 PM permalink
Agree on Free Bet as frequency of getting a Free Bet Lammer is right around 17% (one in six hands), that is a good frequency that players will notice.

Not sure 10% frequency (if that is correct %) of the feature mattering in the game is sufficient, IMHO, but as you said, player action will rule the day.

EZ PGP is hot because not paying that commission, while small in comparison to saving a bet, comes up a lot!!! Vs. the frequency of a Queen High Dealer Pai Gow is what, once in 43 hands?
Attempting to add value one post at a time
y2d2
y2d2
Joined: Jul 10, 2012
  • Threads: 2
  • Posts: 45
September 24th, 2016 at 12:20:42 PM permalink
Quote: SM777

Why do people think seeing the dealer's hand in Pai Gow is such an advantage?

The occurrences in which you would set your a hand a different way then you would without having seen the dealers hand, and win is so minimal.



I tend to disagree.

It is also much more enjoyable to me personally as there are no surprises/upsets/kicking myself. Like being dealt 88/KK and losing to 3-pair. Or pushing JJ/QQ vs xx/KK

Given the choice , I'd never play regular PGP over 7PGP.
gordonm888
gordonm888
Joined: Feb 18, 2015
  • Threads: 20
  • Posts: 488
September 24th, 2016 at 12:24:42 PM permalink
Quote: Paradigm

I think the key fact to consider here is not so much the exact HE behind the game change (assuming the HE is relatively close to normal PGP), but the appeal of the game change to the average PGP player. I think that perceived value in seeing the dealer's hand first will be a real novelty at first and should draw some nice action early on.

The question will be if there is long term perceived value in this game benefit. I think that will come down to how often the dealer hand information is useful to a player and changes a loss hand under normal hand setting strategy to a push or a winning hand due to the knowledge of the dealer's hand. Compare that with the frequency of not winning in on a dealer Ace High Pai Gow hand.

Ultimately if the house edge is reasonable compared to regular PGP (I don't like the commission piece of this game at Thunder Valley on top of the Ace High Pai Gow mechanism) and the players feel like they are getting real benefit in changing their strategy as a result of seeing the dealer's hand, this game would look very promising.

So for the math experts, here is the question: What is the frequency of changing the setting of your hand and pushing or winning as a result of the change? What is the frequency of an Ace High Pai Gow for the dealer that results in a push vs. a win? Therein lies the keys to player's perceived value of seeing the dealer's hand and will drive the long term success of this PGP variant...it looks very interesting.



I agree with your main points. Pai gow poker's popularity arises from these factors:
-it has a slower pace that allows for more socializing
- it requires decisions by the player and occasionally these decisions may be reasonably close calls
-its sidebets provide a potential "jackpot element" to the game
-and it is regarded by its loyal players as a "reasonable" casino game because its HE, loss per hour and volatility are reasonably small.

The rule changes in this variant must either add fun or make the player feel as if they are winning more often or losing more slowly.

But don't hold your breath waiting for "math guys" to provide the answers to your questions. Ignoring suit distributions when a hand does not have a flush, there are still over 230,000 distinct 7-card hands in PGP, and thus the number of "player vs. dealer combinations" exceeds 50 billion. Obviously there is a math report on this game so someone has made some kind of estimate of the HE - but I am betting it was a large effort and involved approximations. High-quality approximations using mathematical short-cuts would be challenging because the diversity of hands in PGP is quite high and the questions to be answered in this game analysis would often require evaluations of the kickers in the two hands.
y2d2
y2d2
Joined: Jul 10, 2012
  • Threads: 2
  • Posts: 45
September 24th, 2016 at 1:46:29 PM permalink
My general experience with casinos seems to be that Indian casinos are stingier than average, with worse odds, comps, promos, etc than "normal" casinos. So it comes as no surprise to see that they tacked on a commission, and/or just about anything they think they can get away with.

Goes all the way to drink orders: you have to pay for your drink at the time of order, because they dint trust you to not go broke between the time yiu order it and the time it arrives. Absolutely hilarious.

I would expect a commission-free game to be at a Horseshoe establishment or similar.
SOOPOO
SOOPOO
Joined: Aug 8, 2010
  • Threads: 89
  • Posts: 3920
September 24th, 2016 at 1:50:48 PM permalink
Everyone must realize that after the novelty wears off, the rule change makes this a NO DECISION game. If you are not able to set your hand properly after the dealer exposes his, then you do not belong in a casino. I know I would try it, and likely tire of it quickly.
y2d2
y2d2
Joined: Jul 10, 2012
  • Threads: 2
  • Posts: 45
September 24th, 2016 at 2:03:07 PM permalink
During tonight's 6+ hour session, it felt like I was getting more help from dealer card info than ace-high non-wins. Many 2pair hands that I would NEVER play unconventionally, but got saved from. Even one-pair was helped multiple times, namely splitting aces once (for a win) and a pair of queens (for a push). Seemed a lot more frequent than dealer ace high on my small sample size.

I've played Pai Gow for around 15 years, and each day I've played, feels like having dealer's card information would have noticeably impacted the day's results.

  • Jump to: