Baccarat betting strategy

Based on the fact that a banker having a 5x winning streak is 0.01649424, then its safe to say the banker having a 10x winning streak is 0.00055166. Its all in the math.

I wait to find a banker winning streak of 5, then I deploy the martingale theory on the player side.

This has proved to me to be quite a profitable strategy almost 100% of the time never getting past 7-9 times.

The odds of getting to 10x in a row as the banker is 0.00055166, who does not want to bet against that??

Have I just been lucky or have I found a strategy where the odds are really in my favor?

Please comment!

thanks

five bankers have already happended, so when you enter the probability of a total of 10 bankers is much higher, namely 2.0% (6 decks)

Plus, ties don't do you any good either, and the probability of an additional 5 bankers in a row ignoring ties is 3,3%

Still, with martingale you have a high chance of being a small winner, and a low chance of being a big loser. So, no, you haven't been particularly lucky, but eventually you WILL lose.

Quote: carolinajoe

Have I just been lucky or have I found a strategy where the odds are really in my favor?

Please comment!

thanks

Lucky obviously. Its a game with no real strategy that can give you an advantage. Its governed strictly by odds.
Only possible strategy is edge sorting.

Quote: carolinajoe

Based on the fact that a banker having a 5x winning streak is 0.01649424, then its safe to say the banker having a 10x winning streak is 0.00055166. Its all in the math.

I wait to find a banker winning streak of 5, then I deploy the martingale theory on the player side.

This has proved to me to be quite a profitable strategy almost 100% of the time never getting past 7-9 times.

The odds of getting to 10x in a row as the banker is 0.00055166, who does not want to bet against that??

Have I just been lucky or have I found a strategy where the odds are really in my favor?

You've been lucky.

Starting from zero wins, the probability of Banker winning five hands in a row is 0.33%.

Starting from zero wins, the probaility of Banker winning ten hands in a row is .001%.

If Banker has already won five hands in a row, the probability of Banker winning thw next hand is 50.7%, not 0.33%.

If Banker has already won ten hands in a row, the probability of Banker wining the next hand is 50.7%, not .001%.

I once saw Banker win twenty-two hands in a row.

You could lose it all on your next try.

Quote: carolinajoe

I wait to find a banker winning streak of 5, then I deploy the martingale theory on the player side.

Here we go again !

How many times must it be explained that watching any number of events before starting to bet has ZERO effect and is totally pointless. (OK. it makes you wager less often, but that's all)

You could watch me toss a fair coin until you saw me toss 8 heads in a row and the chances of it being heads or tails the next time would still be 50/50

How many times must it be pointed out that martingale does not inprove your odds of making meaningful gains?

Martingale adds excitement: That's it's only value unless your bankroll is worthless without a tiny win, such as when you need $1001 to get a flight out of a war zone and you only have $1000.

I have played pretty steady since 1979. Started in Atlantic City and played all the major jurisdictions. There is no rhyme or reason and doing what you say will always be a 50-50 of randomness. I have seen people get wiped out playing the cut and likewise get wiped out playing the streak or 2's or 3's or 1-2-3/3-2-1's, etc. Simply put, anything can work or not work. If you think you can't have 5 or 6 or 7 streaks of 7 or more Bankers and Players in a shoe, you have not played the game long enough.

Quote: carolinajoe

Based on the fact that a banker having a 5x winning streak is 0.01649424, then its safe to say the banker having a 10x winning streak is 0.00055166. Its all in the math.

I wait to find a banker winning streak of 5, then I deploy the martingale theory on the player side.

This has proved to me to be quite a profitable strategy almost 100% of the time never getting past 7-9 times.

The odds of getting to 10x in a row as the banker is 0.00055166, who does not want to bet against that??

Nobody. The problem is, the odds - er, probability - of getting 5 in a row as the banker and then any of the next five five results not be a banker win is not 1 - 0.00055166, but 0.01649424 x (1 - 0.01649424).

To put it another way; if you are tossing a fair coin, the probability of getting 10 heads in a row is 1/1024 - but the probability of getting 9 heads in a row followed by a tail is also 1/1024, and not 1023/1024.

Quote: ThatDonGuy

To put it another way; if you are tossing a fair coin, the probability of getting 10 heads in a row is 1/1024 - but the probability of getting 9 heads in a row followed by a tail is also 1/1024, and not 1023/1024.

^This is the best answer possible. The odds of HTTHTHHHTH or any other random combination is also 1/1024.

Before each hand is dealt, the cards/odds/gambling gods whatever you want to call them, have no memory of what t he last hand, last 5 hands or last million hands have been. They care about 1 thing, the odds and probability of the hand ready to be dealt.

Quote: OnceDear

Here we go again !

How many times must it be explained that watching any number of events before starting to bet has ZERO effect and is totally pointless. (OK. it makes you wager less often, but that's all)

You could watch me toss a fair coin until you saw me toss 8 heads in a row and the chances of it being heads or tails the next time would still be 50/50

How many times must it be pointed out that martingale does not inprove your odds of making meaningful gains?

Martingale adds excitement: That's it's only value unless your bankroll is worthless without a tiny win, such as when you need $1001 to get a flight out of a war zone and you only have $1000.

It does not improve your odds, and you will lose overall on Martingale. However, it does have some interesting aspects to it:

1) If you are normally a big bettor, it will lower your average bet, which means lower theoretical losses. A $1K/hand baccarat player might do a martingale starting at $100 units and spread up to $12,800 if they lose, which might result in a $400 (or lower) average bet over time. That player is saving 60% on their theoretical losses.

2) With the giant spread in bets, floormen often over-rate Martigale bettors, resulting in outsized comps. Further, if you get slammed on (in my example) a $12,800 hand and wind up down $25K, the casino will often do a quick-loss rebate (often termed as "airfare," whether you flew in or not), along with your regular comps. These scenarios can result in even more significant overcomping.

3) The player will be ahead most of the time (for their trip), and in fact will win on most trips. For a gambler looking to have a good time, winning much more often than losing is kind of the whole point. A few Vegas trips will be bad. Most trips will be fantastic - on a percentage basis, more than almost all other visitors to Vegas.

Martingale isn't a system that will give you an overall profit. No Baccarat system will. But it can completely change your Vegas gambling experience from a negative to a positive the majority of the time. There is value in that for the average non-AP.

Quote: thefish2010

It can completely change your Vegas gambling experience from a negative to a positive the majority of the time. There is value in that.

Thanks for the interesting read, but I have to conclude this is merely a different "style of play".

Trying to find "value" in gambling is a tough sell. Nobody's going to remember the so-called AP's either, except for the likes of Thorp.

As far as that goes, I like the Chinese philosophy of gambling... seeing who's lucky on a given day.

Quote: Kerkebet

Thanks for the interesting read, but I have to conclude this is merely a different "style of play".

Trying to find "value" in gambling is a tough sell. Nobody's going to remember the so-called AP's either, except for the likes of Thorp.

As far as that goes, I like the Chinese philosophy of gambling... seeing who's lucky on a given day.

Obviously I mean there is value in that for the normal gambler that gambles for fun. Overall, Martingale will deliver more fun because the player will spend nearly all of their time "winning". Value is in the eye of the beholder. As Steve Wynn likes to say, "gamblers like the game more than they like the money". From that point of view, Martingale is a success.

Quote: thefish2010

Obviously I mean there is value in that for the normal gambler that gambles for fun. Overall, Martingale will deliver more fun because the player will spend nearly all of their time "winning". Value is in the eye of the beholder. As Steve Wynn likes to say, "gamblers like the game more than they like the money". From that point of view, Martingale is a success.

Unless you get crushed on your first try. 20 years ago or so I thought I invented martingale. It worked out perfectly at home but the first first time I tried it for real money I lost my bankroll on the first series.

Quote: carolinajoe

I wait to find a banker winning streak of 5, then I deploy the martingale theory on the player side.

This has proved to me to be quite a profitable strategy almost 100% of the time never getting past 7-9 times.



Have I just been lucky or have I found a strategy where the odds are really in my favor?

Please comment!

thanks

Well, I won't touch the math on that one, but I will tell you I have played this game for about 30 years. If you play long enough you will see everything possible with every run/chop/streak/phenomenon, etc., that could or would ever happen.

1) To a certain point you are right.

2) To a certain point you are wrong.

All I will say, I have witnessed runs of 19-20-22-25 bankers or players out of the blue and with no rhyme or reason or pattern. I have seen it happen in repeated shoes and then I have seen shoes absent of anything over say 7 or 8 for lots and lots of shoes.

If you are looking for a one to two unit win there are lots of so-called trigger wagers that would be in favor of deploying the type of wagering you referred to. Good Luck.

Quote: thefish2010

Obviously I mean there is value in that for the normal gambler that gambles for fun.

Aside from getting back into the question of gambling being fun, I meant to spur you on to more of the Martingale. Yours was the best little bit I've ever read.

How about morphing it into further spreading blackjack? Round out the card counting edges in a speculative way, and continue to incorporate the other strategies, and overall ROR. Timing.

Or, work the chick magnet table image thing when you almost constantly pull the rabbit out of the hat while the entire casino staff "patiently" awaits your demise?

Furthermore, who knows what the best minds and players have forever self-conditioned themselves to leave in the hat. For sure nothing?

Don't feed the troll guys..

Brand new account, first post, doesn't respond, posts a BS martingale system.