FleaStiff
Joined: Oct 19, 2009
• Posts: 10469
May 24th, 2010 at 8:03:55 AM permalink
Quote: odiousgambit

there are folks here who are good at figuring "chance of ruin" , so I'm surprised we havent heard from one of them

Well, I'm certainly not one of those math types, unfortunately, but my view of this is that the offer is a marginal one and if the casino is making a marginal offer then I would be wary.

By marginal I mean that they will insist you play for five hours and that is certainly bringing the player to the point where a run of bad luck will have him tapped out prior to the five hours. They are not rewarding him for his action they are rewarding him for his committing himself to five hours with a bankroll that is not one with a comfortable margin. IF he bets at those levels and does very well, he gets the bonus. IF he bets at those levels and does anything less than very well, he is not likely to last. So its somewhat illusory irrespective of exactly where the risk of ruin figures are determined to be. What is it? 40 units for four hours? I don't recall.
rudeboyoi
Joined: Mar 28, 2010
• Posts: 1988
May 24th, 2010 at 9:13:21 AM permalink
make sure you completely understand the terms and conditions of the promotion. an example i have is the other week i was trying to take advantage of a \$10 free slotplay coupon which u got if u earned 300pts on that day. it was double points day so i figured i had to only earn 150pts making it much more attractive. only the base points counted to the promotion so i was forced to keep playing to earn the other half. since i was already half through meeting the requirements, i wasnt going to abandon the attempt going for it.

also while playing craps, im not sure how your average bet is calculated. if its based on whats your average wager per roll or if its based on average wager per passline bet resolved.

assuming its per roll and 100rolls/hr and \$60 per passline/comeline wager, your theoretical loss over 5hrs play should be \$420. you can easily have swings of +/- \$10,000/hr. \$4000 isnt going to last very long without some good fortune so i would forgo attempting to take advantage of this promotion unless you have \$30,000 or so to play with.
CFTCFT
Joined: May 22, 2010
• Posts: 21
May 25th, 2010 at 8:47:21 PM permalink
Quote: rudeboyoi

assuming its per roll and 100rolls/hr and \$60 per passline/comeline wager, your theoretical loss over 5hrs play should be \$420. you can easily have swings of +/- \$10,000/hr. \$4000 isnt going to last very long without some good fortune so i would forgo attempting to take advantage of this promotion unless you have \$30,000 or so to play with.

Interesting, thanks. I would be playing the don't which I understand does have a lower variance. The offer is also good for \$200 avg bet for \$500 promo chip or \$100 avg bet for \$250 promo chip.

So if I only lasted 1/4 of the 5 hours I should get the \$250.

I will confirm before playing with a hypothetical - I will ask if a \$50 pass line with \$50 odds counts as \$100 avg bet or \$50.

Ideally I would double up the bets while betting on the do and don't and play for half the time and give up approx \$250-300 in betting on the 12 on come outs.

Perhaps a better idea would be to start with 30 don't come with \$180 on the odds going for the \$500 and if I am winning often increase the bets and go for the \$1000.

Even with 60/360 on the don't pass the table would basically have to make almost every point to lose 10k/hour.

Maybe i'll dust off the old c++ skills and make a program to test it out.
rudeboyoi
Joined: Mar 28, 2010
• Posts: 1988
May 25th, 2010 at 9:01:12 PM permalink
i think you are missing my point. im not sure how they compute your average bet but i have my doubts that just making a \$60 passline bet and \$360 odds will count as \$420 average bet per hour. im guessing you would need to be continuously making pass/comeline or dontpass/dontcome bets per roll and not just one passline or dontpass bet at a time.
CFTCFT
Joined: May 22, 2010
• Posts: 21
May 25th, 2010 at 9:57:05 PM permalink
Ok, I will have to see and clarify that. I think the risk of ruin is much more than I thought so I'll probably just play for awhile and have fun and try to hit 100/hand for the \$250.
DrEntropy
Joined: Nov 13, 2009
• Posts: 198
May 27th, 2010 at 8:56:23 AM permalink
You could use WinCraps or something to do a simulation and figure out your risk of ruin, and figure your actual expected loss (including the promotion) given a certain starting bankroll. With a finite bankroll, there are cases where you go broke before the 5 hours are up, and can't get the bonus, whereas if you had a bigger bankroll you might have come back up.

A quick estimate of your risk of ruin for 5 hours, \$400 average bet, fair even money bet (Stddev per root bet = 1), 45 bets per hour:
(not your situation exactly, but I can calculate this case :)

StdDev for 5 hours = 1*Sqrt[45*5]*400 = 15*400 = \$6000

Risk of Ruin ~= Erfc[Bankroll/(StdDev*Sqrt[2])] ~ 50% (This is another approximation---> models the process as a continuous [Weiner] process)

If you want to reduce this to about 10%, you need about \$10000
"Mathematical expectation has nothing to do with results." (Sklansky, Theory of Poker).
rudeboyoi
Joined: Mar 28, 2010
• Posts: 1988
May 27th, 2010 at 10:08:45 AM permalink
dont pass is clearly the better option if they include your odds since you have to bet less on your flatbet.

betting \$20 on the passline and taking \$80 odds on average, \$100 bet.
betting \$40 on the passline and taking \$160 odds on average, \$200 bet.
betting \$80 on the passline and taking \$\$320 odds on average, \$400 bet.

betting \$15 on the dont pass and laying \$90 on each point, \$105 bet.
betting \$29 on the dont pass and laying \$174 on each point \$203 bet.
betting \$58 on the dont pass and laying \$348 on each point, \$406 bet.

so you have to find out if odds are included and if you bet these amounts will these numbers count as your average bet.

then you have to find out if you can make just one passline/dontpass wager waiting for a decision to be reached or if you have to continuously make pass/come or dont/dontcome bets per roll.

if you only have to make one pass/dontpass bet, go for the \$500 or \$1000 promo chip.
if you have to continously make bets, go for the \$250 or \$500 promo chip.

also try to play at a busy table so there will be less rolls per hour.
also betting \$29 on the dontpass/dontcome and laying \$174 or betting \$58 on the dontpass and laying \$348 will also slow the game down since it takes a little longer to figure out how much they have to pay you when you win.

so make sure you find out the answer for all these things before you pursue the promotion.
DrEntropy
Joined: Nov 13, 2009
• Posts: 198
May 27th, 2010 at 4:46:18 PM permalink
Quote: DrEntropy

A quick estimate of your risk of ruin for 5 hours, \$400 average bet, fair even money bet (Stddev per root bet = 1), 45 bets per hour:
(not your situation exactly, but I can calculate this case :)

StdDev for 5 hours = 1*Sqrt[45*5]*400 = 15*400 = \$6000

Since I got home I was able to look up that the standard deviation per 'don't pass' wager is 4.9 for 3,4,5 odds.
So if 60 dollars is your don't pass wager, your stddev for 5 hours is a bit smaller then my assumptions above:

StdDev for 5 hours = 4.9*Sqrt[45*5]*60 ~= \$4400
So for a \$4000 bankroll, your risk of ruin before 5 hours is more like 40%, and you can reduce this to about 10% with a \$7500 bankroll.
"Mathematical expectation has nothing to do with results." (Sklansky, Theory of Poker).
CrappedOut
Joined: May 9, 2010
• Posts: 62
May 27th, 2010 at 6:25:33 PM permalink
How about this idea - go on a busy Friday night when the table is full and there are a minimum of comeout rolls per hour. You bet \$400 on the pass line every time, no odds.

Your partner on the other end of the table bets \$400 on the don't, and for good measure throws \$15 on boxcars on the comeout.

I doubt you will get credit for free odds bets for such a promotion. Ask your host in advance by email; if you get a written reply saying that they will count free odds my advice might be a bit different.
SanchoPanza
Joined: May 10, 2010