Well, I'm certainly not one of those math types, unfortunately, but my view of this is that the offer is a marginal one and if the casino is making a marginal offer then I would be wary.Quote: odiousgambit
there are folks here who are good at figuring "chance of ruin" , so I'm surprised we havent heard from one of them
assuming its per roll and 100rolls/hr and $60 per passline/comeline wager, your theoretical loss over 5hrs play should be $420. you can easily have swings of +/- $10,000/hr. $4000 isnt going to last very long without some good fortune so i would forgo attempting to take advantage of this promotion unless you have $30,000 or so to play with.
A quick estimate of your risk of ruin for 5 hours, $400 average bet, fair even money bet (Stddev per root bet = 1), 45 bets per hour:
(not your situation exactly, but I can calculate this case :)
StdDev for 5 hours = 1*Sqrt[45*5]*400 = 15*400 = $6000
35 on pass and 35 on don't pass with max odds would be 420 total bet on a 5/9. Would be slightly under $400 on 4/10 and over even more on 6/8 which should qualify as an "average" bet of 400$