Baccarat URE Tie Bet 150-1 Calculation

Hi There Guys, this is my first time on the forum. I wasn't sure which forum to place this in, Table Games or Maths? I'm not trying to spam, and if an Admin could correct it I would appreciate it, thanks

Let me start by saying I'm a big fan of the blog, loads of really interesting information availible

I'm not especially good at maths and I had an idea about an occurance in Baccarat which I've not seen mentioned before, even by Thorpe etc. I suspect it is so extremely rare as to be unusable, but without knowing the maths I cannot be sure by how much, and I was hoping you could help me out.

For a standard 8-deck shoe, by having seen every card delt, from the start of the shoe up to the final hand, in theory a situation could arise where every card A-9 across all suits, across all 8 decks has been delt out. At that point one would know with 100% certainty that the remaining cards will produce a 0 Tie [since they are all face cards and 10s], paying 150-1 on the UR WAY Egalite sidebet

How would one go about working out the probablility of all the cards A-9 having been played [ie so they can be visbly recorded] before the end of the shoe. I realise this is an unlikely situation since it also means the burn card and entire cut section must also be 10/J/Q/K, but is there a way to work out the probability? And if so, how many games would you theorhetically have to play before you expected to see this situation arise

Any Help would be really appreciated, Thanks

Here is a link to Teliot's analysis of card-counting the Baccarat Tie Bet:

http://apheat.net/2013/05/25/baccarat-tie-bet-flimflam/

The probability has already been done, all you have to do is apply it to the 150-1 payout.

You want to look for the very last chart on the page, and focus on where it says hands per tie bet. You would go 1/(hands per tie bet) * 150 * Max Bet to get your expectation from counting that. For example, with a cut card placement at 12 cards:

1/2866173 * 150 * 100 (Assuming Max Bet is 100 on Side Bet) = 0.005233459389925172

If I'm not mistaken, that's how much you would stand to make, per hand played, betting only when the deck is all 10's.

EDIT

He already did UR Way Egalite:


http://apheat.net/2013/07/19/card-counting-the-ur-way-egalite-baccarat-side-bet/

"Extreme vulnerability."

Pay attention to the Tie-7 bet, though, it's actually the best.

Plenty more ways to beat it than all-10's left in the deck, unless you don't mind sitting through 35K+ shoes before making a bet!

Mission,

Same post, different title, FWIW, this other thread's more fun.

GuyfromM