Baccarat calculator

Please try out my new Baccarat Calculator by our own JB. I welcome all corrections, comments and questions before I announce this on the Odds site.

LOL.

You better have it default to already calculate for 8 decks.

Seriously.

I changed the number of decks, and saw the composition chart change, and was thinking, "You're kidding, right?"

I then, just for shits and giggles, hit the 'calculate' button. OH! I get it now...



Not being a Baccarat player, but knowing there is no strategy involved, I wonder just how useful all that info is.

Would it be more helpful if the user could enter the values that they have seen dealt, rather than what they estimate remain in the shoe? For example, instead of entering 112 as the estimate of the number of 0 values left in an 8-deck shoe, why not let the player enter 16, and let the calculator do the work?

pretty nice.

What type of baccarat player would use this and what would they be trying to find out especially?

Why not add a shoe to the top of the page,
the user hits shuffle and can play out the shoe one hand at a time
and the table does the rest, removing the cards from the table
and updating the results ready for the next hand.

Maybe more than what JavaScript can do but should be easy with Java


If you go that far, why not make an app for Bac.
Users can play a shuffled shoe or an imputed shoe or shoe results (B,P,T)
They could set triggers to make bets, etc.
Yes, that Baccarat world.
Now that puts you into the casino game simulation program market, and why stop with just a few small games.
What QFIT has done for the Blackjack sim market, JB can do for ALL the games.
More products to sell.
Fun to imagine.

deleted

Quote: sodawater

Just checked this calculator out, so I am not sure if it's been changed since your post, but you can do that now.

I don't think so. The table calls for the "shoe composition", which I interpret as, "how many of each are left in the shoe". What I am asking is that the table be set up so that I can enter the count of each value I have seen dealt without having to subtract that count from the starting total.

Quote: odiousgambit

pretty nice.

What type of baccarat player would use this and what would they be trying to find out especially?

This can be used to find favourable shoe compositions when playing at an online casino where the the shoe is not reshuffled after every hand (like in a live dealer online casino).
Favourable shoe compositions happen vert rarely. But check out what happens when you remove all cards except 10s. The advantage on the Tie bet is 800% for the player. At the end of a shoe (when baccarat is dealt to say 7 cards penetration which happens in land casinos) on the last hand huge advantages can come up on the Tie bet when most of the cards are 10.
Also you can bet more often at a disadvantage but a smaller disadvantage that the normal HE to take advantage of online casinos bonuses.

This program with the addition of a tool that each time you press the specific card button one card is removed, can be used for such action.
This is not theoretical. I have done such a program in excel a long time ago and tried it on online casinos. But found it to be to tedious and not worth my time waiting for the favourable Tie bet.

Thanks for the comments. I agree that there isn't much practical use for this, unless you can use this calculator at the table. As was mentioned, with Internet casinos, especially those with live dealers, you could. For whatever reason I've been asked to do something like this off and on for years.

By the way, JB is working on a baccarat game for the site, which should be ready in early October.

It's not clear on the site that you can change the numbers in the table.

Quote: dwheatley

It's not clear on the site that you can change the numbers in the table.

As a matter of fact, I was convinced you couldn't until your reply indicated you could!!! Just the appearance of it seemed to say you couldnt. I can't believe I was that dumb, I want to say I tried that and it didnt work, but surely it's just a case of "duh"

PS: perhaps the text indicating this should be put in bold.

I added text at the top to clarify how to use it. Thanks for the suggestion.

Quote: Wizard

Thanks for the comments. I agree that there isn't much practical use for this, unless you can use this calculator at the table. As was mentioned, with Internet casinos, especially those with live dealers, you could. For whatever reason I've been asked to do something like this off and on for years.

By the way, JB is working on a baccarat game for the site, which should be ready in early October.

There is a LOT of practical use for this for game designers developing Baccarat side bets - like yours truly. It gives good indications to countibility factors, very strong app, actually....

This does seem mildly useless to me, since unlike blackjack, baccarat rules don't change much from place to place, and what changes there are don't really affect the house edge as much as in blackjack.

Quote: 24Bingo

This does seem mildly useless to me, since unlike blackjack, baccarat rules don't change much from place to place, and what changes there are don't really affect the house edge as much as in blackjack.

So, basically, the calculator and this discussion reveals that the game of Baccarat is:
1. More stable and consistent, in terms of its house edge, and is less subject to the shoe's composition changing its house edge;
2. More standardized in terms of its game-play rules, in comparison to Blackjack.

And this is a bad thing? Hmm...

If we wanted proof that Baccarat is less countable, and is more naturally resistant to AP play, then this calculator is actually very useful in revealing the game's robustness.

And the calculator is very useful in designing Baccarat side bets that are AP play resistant. It's VERY useful for that.

Wow, that's awesome. What a fun toy. Thanks greatly!

Quote: AceTwo

This can be used to find favourable shoe compositions when playing at an online casino where the the shoe is not reshuffled after every hand (like in a live dealer online casino).
Favourable shoe compositions happen vert rarely. But check out what happens when you remove all cards except 10s. The advantage on the Tie bet is 800% for the player. At the end of a shoe (when baccarat is dealt to say 7 cards penetration which happens in land casinos) on the last hand huge advantages can come up on the Tie bet when most of the cards are 10.
Also you can bet more often at a disadvantage but a smaller disadvantage that the normal HE to take advantage of online casinos bonuses.

This program with the addition of a tool that each time you press the specific card button one card is removed, can be used for such action.
This is not theoretical. I have done such a program in excel a long time ago and tried it on online casinos. But found it to be to tedious and not worth my time waiting for the favourable Tie bet.

You could get $10K sterling ($15,000 or something) down in places in a 100%+ edge situation. I'd have to get seriously bored to pass that type of profit up. The bonuses were all 20-40x also, so you were essentially given a freeroll to shoot at big money. And, you didn't even have to be there. Some could bot that play, but you didn't have to have that skill, just leave a freeware clicker on at the start of the shoe, come back after eating sushi or whatever, check through your hand history for the current hand composition, bet the farm or go off for dessert.

All in all probably the best advantage play opportunity around in the last few years. I know of at least one team (not one I was on sadly) that cleared seven figures, six at William Hill alone.

I have to thank the Wizard and others for perpetuating the myth that baccarat can't be counted, it sorted me out financially for life.

Quote: GBV

I have to thank the Wizard and others for perpetuating the myth that baccarat can't be counted, it sorted me out financially for life.

You can thank me by spending $10 on my iPhone app. However, what I have always said is that baccarat is not countable without the aid of a computer. With a computer -- you bet it is countable.

Quote: Wizard

You can thank me by spending $10 on my iPhone app. However, what I have always said is that baccarat is not countable without the aid of a computer. With a computer -- you bet it is countable.

https://wizardofodds.com/games/baccarat/appendix/2/
Last Update: Jan 16, 2008

"I hope this section shows that for all practical purposes baccarat is not a countable game"

I know I have read somewhere in Ask the Wizard about using a computer, and you kind of hint about it at your page.
Maybe time to be very specific.

That poster says "the myth that baccarat can't be counted"
Most that have commented on counting Bac
do not say that ,
they say it is not worth the effort for the small gains in a B&M casino.

Quote: Wizard

You can thank me by spending $10 on my iPhone app. However, what I have always said is that baccarat is not countable without the aid of a computer. With a computer -- you bet it is countable.

It kind of amazes me that someone smart enough to program an app like the baccarat calculator doesn't have the intellectual curiousity to pursue the subject to its intellectual limitations-that's the "easy" bit for most people. I'd have thought that the main point of developing a calc is to create a useable human strategy that captures most of the gain.

Mess about with a CA calculator like this one, and you find that it is pretty easy to eliminate most of the highly favourable subsets and identify the highly favourable ones. Any end-deck subset that resembles an average deck isn't going to have an advantage on any wager. Any end-deck subset that is completely stripped of a significant number of ranks, is going to have a very significant edge. Any subset composed of even-ranks is going to have a nice edge.

It may not be apparent to the casual gambler how good these opportunities are, when they do eventually occur. With the classic tie bet advantage remainder where all the cards to be dealt are even, your average gain betting Kelly will be 8% of your entire bankroll, roughly equivalent to the yearly return from the stock market. By contrast the blackjack card counter making a bet at a TC of +5 gains only 0.03% of his bankroll on average.

The difficult part is identifying subsets in the middle-ground of advantage between the two extremes. With some practice, you can get very close to a computer in determining whether a given subset is or is not highly advantageous. You'll miss out on some marginal opportunities but they are worth almost nothing anyway. Bet-sizing is also a non-trivial problem.

When the penetration is excellent, a human can certainly identify positive expectation situations with enough accuracy to obtain a viable edge. It is not "easy" like counting at blackjack is, but it is easier than becoming a high-stakes poker player, or a chess or bridge professional.

Of course, most baccarat games are not beatable, as most blackjack and most poker games are not beatable to any significant extent. However, the difference between a game that is "usually not beatable" and a game that cannot be beaten is like night and day.

(I don't even own a mobile phone, let alone an iphone, but I'll sign-up to bodog at some point and be sure to use your link. )

Quote: 7craps

https://wizardofodds.com/games/baccarat/appendix/2/
Last Update: Jan 16, 2008

"That poster says "the myth that baccarat can't be counted"
Most that have commented on counting Bac
do not say that ,
they say it is not worth the effort for the small gains in a B&M casino.

Most are commenting on linear count systems like those developed by Thorp
and Griffin. These use a statistical approximation which works well for
blackjack, but very badly for baccarat. Computers use precise analysis.

Quote: Wizard

You can thank me by spending $10 on my iPhone app. However, what I have always said is that baccarat is not countable without the aid of a computer. With a computer -- you bet it is countable.

This could lead to baccarat with no mid-shoe entry!

Quote: GBV

Most are commenting on linear count systems like those developed by Thorp
and Griffin. These use a statistical approximation which works well for
blackjack, but very badly for baccarat. Computers use precise analysis.

That is what I did for baccarat. If there is some other way to humanly count baccarat effectively I haven't thought of it. Maybe smarter minds than mine have.

Can you explain to me how I can use card counting with your iphone app at a land-based table game of baccarat. You say it can be very effective to use the app so I would like to attempt making some money off it. If it can be done easily and effectively using your tool, I will gladly purchase it.

For the record, my local casino allows use of computers at the table(although I probably would be a little discreet, par for the course) and allows for sitting through a hundred or so hands without playing.

Note that I am not joking. What is offered specifically is baccarat, through completely electronic means(no live dealer, a physical shoe of eight decks is shuffled and dealt by a mechanical arm while you are seated at a electronic table. Usually there are about fifty seats and rarely does any human pass by. And I have sat at the table for many hours without betting(long as my money is in the machine)

One more thing. The table is multi-game. That is there are actually two physical games concurrent. You can choose to watch the physical dealing of the cards at either of two tables. The results for both ongoing games are displayed in front of you on two large screens and you can switch games from your console depending on which you prefer to bet at any given moment. So in effect, you could count at two different shoes simultaneously and double your chances for catching that opportune moment using card counting.

Quote: Wizard

You can thank me by spending $10 on my iPhone app. However, what I have always said is that baccarat is not countable without the aid of a computer. With a computer -- you bet it is countable.

If it's countable with a computer, I see no reason to think it isn't without. In particular, the tie bet - the familiar system of betting big on the tie bet if every last odd card has come out of the shoe is clearly unworkable, but I'm putting in a number of even/odd unbalanced distributions that seem to have a positive yield with many odds left in the deck, and for which the linear card removal function shows a massive edge. Makes me wonder...

Hmm... 40,960 possible counts... how many possible compositions to each count? I think I can set an upper bound at 2^40... inviable.

Quote: 24Bingo

If it's countable with a computer, I see no reason to think it isn't without.

Wow, that's a quote.
"If it's easy to do on a modern computer (and a modern cell phone is a supercomputer from the 1970's), then it must be a cinch to do this AP thing perfectly on our fingertips, when at the casino in live play - with floormen and surveillance watching! Makes sense to me!"

Of course. Great idea. Counting down Baccarat for untold riches, just like counting down Blackjack. Counting cards, what a Fresh idea.... Why didn't I think of it sooner? Actually, what I recommend is developing and selling casino games to casino operators to make a living, - because I actually found THAT to be a much more realistic and lucrative avenue. And that, too, is a cinch to carry off.

Well I disagree. Successfully counting Blackjack is ridiculously hard. Forget about Baccarat. If you WANT to look for AP play suggestions, then try Steve How's AP site for avenues of opportunity.

One of the biggest problems I have with AP counting play it is more unrealistic than it appears to the eye, and that counting is clung to like an oxygen mask in a gas chamber - at least in this gas chamber. Spending the same effort on one's personal life, education, work, or even a life outside of this counting effort - is considered a waste. I spent the same time learning to deal, then later game design, - and I found it was the only thing that paid off in this industry. Call me crazy, and tell me that I am wrong.

Ten years ago I read Bringing Down the House, where brilliant MIT undergraduates - all with 1600 SATs and computer-fast brains - went through Heaven and Hell and eventually lost with the allure of card counting, in a way that mere mortals seriously inquiring the possibility on this site cannot understand. Many abandoned engineering and medical degrees that would have set them up for life in productive lives, or lost massive amounts of time on this side car effort. They lived a large fantasy life for a couple of years.

Eliot J. has a Ph. D in math, and he couldn't make it as a card counter - and he tried.
If you have between a GED and a masters, you should abandon all hope. In fact, if you spend any time at this board chatting, instead of practicing your camoflage, and your Hi-Lo counting abilities - then you've lost.

For gods sake give it a rest.
So tiresome to hear this speech every three days or so.

I would bet that even the most casually involved members have heard it.
Newsflash...you are farting into the wind.
Spend more time on your inventions and leave it alone.
How long a life do you think this is anyway?

My friend calls you DAN QUIJOTE....

Quote: WongBo

For gods sake give it a rest.
So tiresome to hear this speech every three days or so.

So am I, - hearing of the fantasy of the riches to come - from counting. That's the old G-ddamn sh]t at this point.

Gotta call the losing plan as it really is.

So guys, can we learn some tricks?:

1. The NEW AP areas - Best play on UTH? New approaches to UTH?
2. Best Pai Gow Poker strategy - and why?
3. New games designs - what do you guys have to show?
4. Interesting prop bets that you guys have made recently - and the bet's conditions?
5. Experiences in dealer school versus the first week on the job?
6. How to resurrect Horse racing - any ideas to create new bets for that - there are People at Santa Anita who WOULD be interested!
7. Do you create your own sports bets pool - how to do?

And the like...think of something new...

These are some ideas - aside from "I'm gonna get RICH by counting - what a new idea! who's gonna know or back me off in the casino? It's FOOLPROOF, I tell you!"

Now THIS is all that is hear at this point, - and I am fighting this.

New people come to this board, to fart into the wind that card counting as "the new thing that'll work, that'll 'get fixed' " - which it isn't - and when I shoot them down - you defend them as "doable AP." It is no longer.

I put up a post saying the counting door is closing, and to loose it - and it is. You are wasting your own, as that avenue is closed, and I told you why.

You show something new.

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Duplicate

It may not occur to you
That some people just enjpy rhe challenge of playing their strongest game.
Perhaps the reason we all learn how to play every game optimally.
For me counting is the same thing.
A challenge to my ability to remember what the best move is.
Like chess. Like backgammon. Like life
Yes I have made money. No never a backoff in 27 years.
So I am sorry to pop the balloon but pennsylvania houses are currently financing my manhattam condo.
If their cameras and computers can't figure out how to stop doing that then they dont belong in business. Period.
I'm just a guy who loves games and cash.
I still think you tried and failed and now you are carving out a position on the eaay side of the street.

If you guys want to show something new at this point - aside from card counting fantasies of riches, see the thread https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/other-games/11994-your-ideas-we-need-new-gambling-stuff/#post196961

I can list my winnings by year for you if you would like.
Hardly riches but certainly enough to make it all seem worthwhile.
I'm not going to argue anymore and I have no animosity toward you.
But its been a long night and I made 4000 so the irony just got to me.

Quote: WongBo

I can list my winnings by year for you if you would like.
Hardly riches but certainly enough to make it all seem worthwhile.
I'm not going to argue anymore and I have no animosity toward you.
But its been a long nigjt and I made 4000 so the irony just got to me.

Yes, please do so.
You might be one of the few who got some cheese out of it. My suspicion is that few really do.
Also - question - have you reported this income to the IRS, and if so, how did you explain it?

deleted

Of course.
Good for you guys, I salute you.
I file on my own jackpot winnings.

Quote: Paigowdan

Wow, that's a quote.
"If it's easy to do on a modern computer (and a modern cell phone is a supercomputer from the 1970's), then it must be a cinch to do this AP thing perfectly on our fingertips, when at the casino in live play - with floormen and surveillance watching! Makes sense to me!"

Wow, that's pretty blatantly taken out of context.

The "computer" in this specific instance is essentially nothing more than a table too freakishly massive to express other than concisely. If it's possible with a massive table to identify which bets are +EV, there's probably a way for a human (with pen and paper, no less) to identify them imperfectly well enough to come out ahead.

Quote: Paigowdan

Well I disagree. Successfully counting Blackjack is ridiculously hard. Forget about Baccarat. If you WANT to look for AP play suggestions, then try Steve How's AP site for avenues of opportunity.

Don't give them more ammunition for their "persecuted enlightened" act. It's not some astounding feat to recognize cards quickly, nor to increment or decrement in one's head, nor even the daunting task of legend of dividing by eight. The only reason people screw it up is the heat it generates.

Quote: Paigowdan

Ten years ago I read Bringing Down the House, where brilliant MIT undergraduates - all with 1600 SATs and computer-fast brains - went through Heaven and Hell and eventually lost with the allure of card counting, in a way that mere mortals seriously inquiring the possibility on this site cannot understand. Many abandoned engineering and medical degrees that would have set them up for life in productive lives, or lost massive amounts of time on this side car effort. They lived a large fantasy life for a couple of years.

Eliot J. has a Ph. D in math, and he couldn't make it as a card counter - and he tried.
If you have between a GED and a masters, you should abandon all hope. In fact, if you spend any time at this board chatting, instead of practicing your camoflage, and your Hi-Lo counting abilities - then you've lost.

In both cases, it's not the math that screwed them up, but, as you say, the "camoflage." A 1600 SAT score and a math degree are hardly relevant to that, or needed for the simple arithmetic required. (The second one isn't even primarily about blackjack!)