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15-6 NFL Moneyline Picks... From a Camel
| February 9th, 2012 at 12:09:50 PM permalink | |
| Ayecarumba Member since: Nov 17, 2009 Threads: 113 Posts: 2030 | According to an AP article on the ESPN website, a camel in New Jersey went 15-6 this year, including a correct pick of the Giants over the Pats in the Superbowl. With that win, the camel is now 89-51 lifetime. Would a proper analysis of whether the camel is better than a coin flip need to include the spreads on each game picked? Or is it enought that the expected random results should be divided 50/50? If the expected result is 50/50, is the camel's record significantly better than random? |
| February 9th, 2012 at 12:27:08 PM permalink | |
| Wizard Administrator Member since: Oct 14, 2009 Threads: 312 Posts: 6751 | According to my math, the odds of luck this good or better are 1 in 931. That is using the binary distribution, not a Gaussian estimate. As long as he was randomly picking then his odds wouldn't matter whether it was against the spread or straight up. If I ran a zoo I would have every single animal make such picks. One of them would probably finish with a record this good and give the zoo some good free publicity. It's not whether you win or lose; it's whether or not you had a good bet. |
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