Value of a Safety

Somebody must have figured out the value of a safety, on average, in the NFL. I havent tried to look this up, but the rule of course is that you kick by punt to the other team after being penalized the two points. That team gets fairly good field position and must score at least a field goal close to half the time, and of course a touchdown often. I am going to guess the ultimate value of a safety is about 5.5 points, you can vote too.

Anyway I figure the Pats basically spotted the Giants about 5 points in the beginning of the game.

Quote: odiousgambit

Anyway I figure the Pats basically spotted the Giants about 5 points in the beginning of the game.

And the Giants ended up winning by 4. Hmmm....

The NYG scored 46 offensive TDs in the regular season and 19 FGs = 379 Points.

They returned 80 kicks and punts and 31 turnovers, plus 21 fair catches. I don't have stats for drives started from the 20 by the Giants in 2011. lets say it's 16 (1 per game seems low). Thus 148 drives (9.25 per game). Each drive is thus worth 2.56 points. Thus a safety is worth about 4.5 points to the Giants.

I do ignore field position in there, but this seems a reasonable enough way to draw out a rough idea for that team.

damn :

http://footballoutsiders.com/stats/drivestats

Gives me a better number : Points/Drive for NYG was 1.98. A safety is worth 4 points to them (4.8 to the Pats, 2.9 to the Rams...).

I did always wonder if you'd rather sack the QB in the endzone for two and the ball (say on 3rd down), or if it would be better to force the punt from the back of the endzone (giving you much better field position - about 40 yards better on average, plus a chance at a block for 6+1.

Teams in the CFL will often give up the Safety instead of the horrible punt, and they have a much deeper end zone (but also slightly different kicking rules).

This is an (almost) impossible question to answer. It depends entirely on the situation. Down and distance, and time remaining.

Considering the safety occurred on 1st down, it was more valuable of a safety than if it had occurred on 3rd/4th down. But in general, if the safety is occurring on 3rd or 4th down, it will give the team that gives up the safety about 25-30 yards of field possession. That might be worth about 1-2 points to the team that lost the 2 points. Punting from your own 1, or a free kick from your own 20?

Sorry, this answer didn't help much.

Quote: thecesspit

Gives me a better number : Points/Drive for NYG was 1.98. A safety is worth 4 points to them (4.8 to the Pats, 2.9 to the Rams...).

makes sense it differs between teams. I should have noted, as played out, the Pats spotted the Giants a full 9 pts is the fact of the matter this time.

Quote: odiousgambit

makes sense it differs between teams. I should have noted, as played out, the Pats spotted the Giants a full 9 pts is the fact of the matter this time.

I looked at it this way, safety = 2 pts. Field position after the punt is probably the Giant's 35 if fair-catch, and Giant's 45 if returned.
From these positions (I'll even allow anywhere from the G35 to the 50) it seems rather easy to score a field-goal, but still less than 50-50 for a TD.
I have considered a 45YD FG indoors as probable make. This places the ball at the Pats 35. Presuming these things, the Giants need to move at "worst" 30 yds from the G35 to the P35. Natch, driving 65 YDs for a TD is less than even chance, and may be considered small fraction-wise.

For example it may be that the chances of a FG are say 2/5 but TD 1/10. Thats a 50-50 chance of scoring 4 points, call it 2 points allowed. That puts this example at a 4.0 value.

MHO is that a safety is worth 5 in the scheme of things. Even a 3-and-out pins the Pats back inside to 10 (especially the way the punts were going for the Giants). In short, a repeat attempt at good field position if failing to score the 1st time. I know there's several angles to be considered... none of them were good for the Pats /MHO