Safety bets a winner in XLVI

Quote: Wizard

I never bet with my heart -- always my head.

It also took some balls to bet on Kansas City beating the undefeated Green Bay Packers. CONGRATS!

Quote: Ibeatyouraces

This is why 99.999999% of gamblers are losing gamblers.

Is that .999 repeating? Because that would make it 100%

Quote: buzzpaff

It also took some balls to bet on Kansas City beating the undefeated Green Bay Packers. CONGRATS!

Thanks. I think I had 6 to 1 on that. However, I lost a lot more betting against the safety, laying 9 to 1. I show it fair laying about 20 to 1. 13.5% of my Super Bowl bankroll was on the no safety. I might add that 4.2% was on first score to be a touchdown, which the safety also ruined.

Quote: Wizard

I lost BIG TIME on that. I don't even want to say how much.

Just remember this " It's not whether you win or lose; it's whether or not you had a good bet."
ROFLMAO

Quote: buzzpaff

Just remember this " It's not whether you win or lose; it's whether or not you had a good bet."

That's true. I may have lost this year, but I'm still up a lot of money since I started betting props about eight years ago. Whether a good gambler or bad, in the short run your money will go up and down like a roller coaster.

Quote: Wizard

I never bet with my heart -- always my head.

This is wise, but I'm not always wise.

The superbowl props bets are mostly head, but there's a couple I do for the entertainment value I get from them.

I skipped the over/under on the anthem time, as my research said she'd be right around the 1m35s mark. And she was.

I did take "the number of times Peyton Manning would be mentioned during the game" for the under (<3). That was a good one I thought, as my experience says the commentators rarely mention players who aren't playing, keeping the story on the game, and the players on the field. BoDog I think scored it as one (there was a mention to the "house that Peyton Built" with regards to the stadium).

I lost on not having a defensive or special teams TD (marginal bet at best), first team to get a first down, and number of field goals, and who the winning MVP would thank... I was sure it'd be the team mates, but the way the interview and MVP was announced didn't lead in, so I'd skip that one in the future.

So I'd have taken a loss if it was not for the safety. I suspect the bookies made out alright on it, as for every $20,000 winner on the first score being a safety, there'd have been plenty of action of the first score being a TD from team X.

The FGs would have hit had Bradshaw been able to stop on the 1 yard line. Spikes might have had to do the strange move of shoving his opponent in for a score. The "unimpeded to the end zone" that Belichick called was genius. Very smooth move, might have worked if his receivers hadn't put on the iron gloves for the last drive of the game.

Quote: s2dbaker

Is that .999 repeating? Because that would make it 100%

No decimal points to confuse anyone so no its not repeating and in my book, even if it did, its still not 100%.

Quote: Wizard

13.5% of my Super Bowl bankroll was on the no safety. I might add that 4.2% was on first score to be a touchdown, which the safety also ruined.

These are pretty silly high percentages, isn't it? There are so many different bets to be made on the game, couldn't you have spread your money out on other good bets too? I'm disappointed.

Quote: hhhccc

These are pretty silly high percentages, isn't it? There are so many different bets to be made on the game, couldn't you have spread your money out on other good bets too? I'm disappointed.

Heretic ;)

There have been very few safeties in the Super Bowl, becasue there have been few safeties overall. It's a rare occurence, after all. So it's a good bet to wager on no safeties. And hindsight is 20/20.

As for a TD to open the score, that's reasonable. Given two highly defensive teams, I'd tend to favor a field goal. Otherwise the first score is often a TD.

Question: what's more unusual, ie what happens less often, a game with a safety or a game without any TDs?

From 2000 to 2010 the probability of a safety was 5.8%. That makes it fair laying 1633 against a safety. The fact that there were safeties in Super Bowls 2008 and 2012 will not deter me from making the same bet next year. It isn't whether you win or lose, it's whether or not you had a good bet.