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Average field goals per game

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January 3rd, 2012 at 3:44:14 PM permalink
cclub79
Member since: Dec 16, 2009
Threads: 26
Posts: 939
Quote: Face
Cor blimey! 0.o The Canadian by way of UK gets it! =D C'mon guys, it's FUTBOL AMERICANO! Bad enough we suck at geography.... ;)

Just to elaborate, once a team takes a fair catch they have the option of kicking a field goal from the spot of the catch. A holder is implemented same as a regular field goal, but there is no snap. The kicker lines up 10yards back same as he would a kickoff, runs up and gives it das boot. The defense cannot rush him on this play. Imagine a windy weather kickoff with no tee... that's basically what it looks like.

The last one was relatively recently, say within 5-7 years. ARZ vs NYG. With 5 seconds left in the half, ARZ attempted a 68 yarder by this method. After a whole bunch of lining it up, making sure the holder held it just right, licking a finger and testing the wind, the kicker booted a line drive that shanked left, bouncing at about the 30yd line ><


Here's the video:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kCBBUMnRqbo

All that drama and pffft....



Quote: Nareed
It's not that bad. That's an esoteric rule rarely invoked. What are the chances of getting a fair catch about 40-50 yards from the uprights?

What surprised me was a few seasons back a game ended in a tie, and some of the players were surprised to learn such things existed in the NFL. It seems they thought they'd keep playing after 15 minutes of OT ran out. Now, granted ties are rare in Football, they're not unheard of.


It was Donovan McNabb, in the Eagles tie in 2008 (which was the last one in the NFL). He's tried to say he was just joking since then. But it wasn't "some" of the players, just him.
January 3rd, 2012 at 5:12:47 PM permalink
Wizard
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Member since: Oct 14, 2009
Threads: 310
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Quote: MathExtremist
Can you correlate starting drive position with drive result? And then map that to the distribution of this year's starting drive position (which should be much heavier on the 20 yard line)?


I can't. The theory that makes the most sense to me the one that kickers are just getting better. Somebody linked to a good article about it several posts back.


Quote: cclub79
Here's the video


Please forgive my ignorance, but why did they even get to do a field goal attempt without having to snap the ball? You can hear the announcers call it a "free kick," but what is a "free kick"? I've never seen a field goal attempt done like a kickoff before.
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January 3rd, 2012 at 5:34:53 PM permalink
thecesspit
Member since: Apr 19, 2010
Threads: 38
Posts: 3105
Quote: Wizard
I can't. The theory that makes the most sense to me the one that kickers are just getting better. Somebody linked to a good article about it several posts back.


Quote: cclub79
Here's the video


Please forgive my ignorance, but why did they even get to do a field goal attempt without having to snap the ball? You can hear the announcers call it a "free kick," but what is a "free kick"? I've never seen a field goal attempt done like a kickoff before.


See a previous post made by me. After a fair catch, the team may elect to take a free kick. A free kick is exactly that... it cannot be interrupted, charged or blocked. The kicking team gets an attempt to hit it between the uprights, with as much time as they like.

It's very rare it's attempted. Most fair catches are far too deep to be worth attempting the kick for, you give up possession if you miss (or if you make it). I suspect it's a hold over rule from the early days of American Football when it had a lot more kicking and rugby like aspects.
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January 3rd, 2012 at 8:00:44 PM permalink
Toes14
Member since: May 6, 2010
Threads: 11
Posts: 350
Do you have yearly averages? I'd expect to see a definite uptick year by year over your 10-11 year time frame. I believe these factors are all in play here:

1. The shift towards passing dominance versus the running game - If you compare numbers over time, I think you'll see more 4000 yard passers relative to 1000 yard rushers each year.

2. Stronger legged kickers - It used to be that a 50 yard field goal was something special. Today, if you can't consistently hit half of your 50+ yard attempts, it's likely that you won't be on the roster very long.

3. More attempts (overall and long distance) - Coaches are giving kickers more tries in general and specifically more 50-60 yard tries, because they see a higher success rate on them than in the past.

4. Closer games in general - More parity leads to closer games, and an extra 3 points never hurts. Coaches seem to have given up on throwing Hail Mary's in favor of trying long field goal when circumstances dictate.
"Oh Gravity, thou art a heartless bitch!" - Dr. Sheldon Lee Cooper
January 3rd, 2012 at 8:27:22 PM permalink
Wizard
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Quote: Toes14
Do you have yearly averages? I'd expect to see a definite uptick year by year over your 10-11 year time frame. I believe these factors are all in play here:


Ask and ye shall receive. Sorry but I'm missing 2010.

Year Avg. FG
2000 2.92
2001 2.97
2002 2.89
2003 2.97
2004 2.74
2005 3.03
2006 3.04
2007 3.07
2008 3.28
2009 2.92


Where I do agree is that lopsided games tend to have fewer field goals. That is a correlation I can prove, but I think it is intuitive why.

Yes, we can see a general trend upward. 2008 was another high year.

Quote:
Closer games in general - More parity leads to closer games, and an extra 3 points never hurts. Coaches seem to have given up on throwing Hail Mary's in favor of trying long field goal when circumstances dictate.


I have to disagree here. This table shows the average margin of victory by season. The last three years in the table are the three highest, but it isn't a huge increase.

Year Avg. MOV
2000 12.05
2001 11.14
2002 11.39
2003 11.78
2004 11.45
2005 11.79
2006 11.33
2007 12.33
2008 12.13
2009 13.06
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January 3rd, 2012 at 9:18:37 PM permalink
guido111
Member since: Sep 16, 2010
Threads: 5
Posts: 477
Quote: Wizard
Here is an update to this topic. Naturally, as soon as I quit betting first score to be a touchdown and under 3.5 field goals the number of field goals came down per game came down. Here are the totals for the regular season.

Team Made Attempted
Ariz 19 24
Atl 27 29
Bal 30 39
Buf 23 31
Car 22 28
Chic 28 32
Cin 24 29
Clev 24 29
Dal 32 37
Den 19 25
Det 24 29
GB 24 28
Hou 32 38
Ind 23 27
Jac 23 25
KC 24 30
Mia 33 39
Min 22 28
NE 28 33
NO 28 34
NYG 19 24
NYJ 19 25
Oak 31 35
Phil 24 27
Pitt 23 31
SD 28 35
SF 44 52
Sea 25 30
StL 21 28
TB 26 28
Ten 29 32
Wash 31 41
Total 829 1002
Average 25.91 31.31
Average per game 1.62 1.96




While crossing my Ts and dotting my Is with my NFL stats,

Wiz you need to double check your data.

Cincinnati made 33 of 38 in my log. I do not know if that is the only error, it seems to be.

Covers, ESPN and CBS Sports also shows 33/38. (I have found a few errors over at Covers in the past)

For 2011
CBS Sports at 838/1011= 0.828882295
ESPN the same

Covers at 832/1004= 0.828685259. ? Do not know what their problem is. Maybe they have not updated their data base?
I was lazy this year and have not updated my weekly data either.

As you might already know ESPN shows...
2010 794/964= 0.823651452
2009 756/930= 0.812903226
2008 845/1000= 0.845 (NFL Record says Elias Sports Bureau)
2007 795/960= 0.828125
2006 767/942= 0.814225053
January 3rd, 2012 at 9:56:34 PM permalink
Wizard
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Member since: Oct 14, 2009
Threads: 310
Posts: 6735
You're right, I had the wrong number for the Bengals. My notes, from NFL.com were right, but in entering the data into Excel I must have entered the Bear's data twice.

Now that I correct that I also get 838 and 1011.

Thanks for the correction. This makes the field goal glut even more pronounced.
It's not whether you win or lose; it's whether or not you had a good bet.
January 3rd, 2012 at 10:28:04 PM permalink
BrockWindsor
Member since: Jun 10, 2010
Threads: 1
Posts: 10
Quote: thecesspit
The free kick is an option given to a recieving team who take a fair catch. The kick is an option even if time has expired. I have no idea who last even attempted one. Flutie, a CFL hall of famer, was the last man to kick a drop goal in the NFL. Its more common in the cfl due to the rules on when the bal is live. And because on side players can recover a kick. The 2nd down trick punt is used every season it seems.
I don't think there has been an actual drop kick attempt in the CFL since at least the 70's. When Flutie kicked one in the nfl I think the myth spread that he used to do it in the CFL, the truth is his coaches in the cfl never let him try it. You will see cfl players (rarely) punt the ball out of their endzone or punt after receiving the ball downfield because of the rouge rule and because onside players may recover a punt or kick. There is no free kick rule in the cfl.
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