Average field goals per game

The free kick would only be taken in the final seconds of a half. It might happen if a team took a penalty applied to a kick off, so they kick from the 20 (or punted from deep, but why a team would be punting with seconds left, I'm not sure, when taking a knee should un off the clock), and then on the ensuing kick off, there was a unsportsmanlike conduct, adding 15 yards to the fair catch marker.

This is pretty much the situation I first heard about it, though the catch was made at teams own ~ 30, with the 15 yards penalty assessed for a intentional face mask (I think), making a kick from the 45... a 65 yarder. Wasn't attempted. Which seemed odd to me... why wouldn't you? The ball isn't dead after the kick, so i guess if it fails you have to play coverage, but if it's last gasp anyways, any team not recovering and taking a knee is not thinking (see the Iggle Tied game, as Nareed mentioned).

I can think of other times it might occur, but they are much like a retiring QB kicking a drop goal with his last play of his professional career (which I still think was an awesome thing for the Pats to let him do).

Back to the increase in FG's: Not mentioned yet was the shortened offseason due to the labor dispute. Less off season workouts, shorter training camps, etc. But now the defenses are catching up and the yards/scores being posted are going down.

Here is an update to this topic. Naturally, as soon as I quit betting first score to be a touchdown and under 3.5 field goals the number of field goals came down per game came down. Here are the totals for the regular season.

Team	Made	Attempted
Ariz	19	24
Atl	27	29
Bal	30	39
Buf	23	31
Car	22	28
Chic	28	32
Cin	33	38
Clev	24	29
Dal	32	37
Den	19	25
Det	24	29
GB	24	28
Hou	32	38
Ind	23	27
Jac	23	25
KC	24	30
Mia	33	39
Min	22	28
NE	28	33
NO	28	34
NYG	19	24
NYJ	19	25
Oak	31	35
Phil	24	27
Pitt	23	31
SD	28	35
SF	44	52
Sea	25	30
StL	21	28
TB	26	28
Ten	29	32
Wash	31	41
Total	838	1011
Average	26.19	31.59
Average per game	1.64	1.97

So, the average field goals per game was 3.27. Compare that to 2.98 for the previous 11 seasons. You may recall it was 3.34 in my mid-season post at the beginning of this thread.

If we assume that 2.98 is the fair average, the probability of having an average of 3.24 or higher for an entire regular season is 0.37%. Is it just chance or did something change about the game? The answer to that I just don't know. It may be a combination.

Also note the percentage of field goals made to attempts was 82.9%. That figure will come in handy on the missed field goal prop on the Super Bowl.

Quote: Wizard

If we assume that 2.98 is the fair average, the probability of having an average of 3.24 or higher for an entire regular season is 0.93%. Is it just chance or did something change about the game? The answer to that I just don't know. It may be a combination.

Well, kickoffs were moved up 5 yards, leading to more touchbacks and therefore more drives starting on the 20yd line vs. further upfield. At first blush that would seem to increase the number of drives ending in field goals vs. punts.

A couple of comments.

First, i think that over time, field goal kickers are getting better. 5 of the 9 field goals made over 60 yards occured in the last 6 years. This year is especially notable. I have two stories:

(ESPN: David Akers reigns as kicking king)
(LA Times: In the NFL, 50 (yards) is new 40).

Secondly, an anemic offense and strong defences will lead to more field goal attempts. With the absence of Favre and Manning, you might be able to argue that offenses are less potent.

Except there was three QBs who passed for over 5000 yards this season.... I think offences where in general MORE potent this year (was their more points in total scored this year?), which would lead to in general more scoring, both FG and TDs.

Quote: MathExtremist

Well, kickoffs were moved up 5 yards, leading to more touchbacks and therefore more drives starting on the 20yd line vs. further upfield. At first blush that would seem to increase the number of drives ending in field goals vs. punts.

It would seem the opposite to me. Drives are starting further back. Given the same yards advanced either way, what before might have been a field goal attempt would turn into a punt.

Quote: Wizard

It would seem the opposite to me. Drives are starting further back. Given the same yards advanced either way, what before might have been a field goal attempt would turn into a punt.

By the same token, many touchdowns would turn into field goal attempts. Clearly it's not sound to reason precisely that way because offense changes based on field location, but I'm not sure which effect is more prevalent.

Can you correlate starting drive position with drive result? And then map that to the distribution of this year's starting drive position (which should be much heavier on the 20 yard line)?

I didn't read the thread...so someone may have covered this BUT....Here is my 2 cents. Scoring in general will continue to increase. Thats what the NFL wants. More scoring means more excitement which means more fans. Rule changes on the defensive side of the ball have made scoring easier. Then add on top of that a real emphasis on protecting players, like WR's and QB's has also make the game easier for the offense. This makes it easier to throw across the middle. Because of these rule changes more teams have switched to a "west coast" style of "spread" style offense. This depends heavily on the pass. This means teams are drafting a different type of running back and different type of offensive lineman. The "3 yards and a cloud of dust" type of NFL is really coming to an end. As an offense moves the ball into the "red zone" it become easier for the defense becasue the field is smaller. And with a less effective running game it becasue harder for the offense to score. This means more field goals. Although this model doesn't always hold true. Like for example the 49ers....who have an excellent running game with Gore and a sub par passing game with Alex Smith. and their Field goal kicker David Akers broke the NFL record this year for field goals made.

it would also be interesting to see data on number of possessions...to see it that has increased as well.....with less running and more passing the drives are shorter. and even a "3 and out" by the offense with 2 or 3 passing plays takes less off the clock then 2 or 3 running plays. Meaning "in theory" more total possession per game. So maybe the total field goals have increased per game becasue the average number of possessions have increased per game. I'm not gonna try and find the data LOL....but it could be the reason!