Average field goals per game

From the 2000 to 2010 seasons the average field goals per game was 2.98. This season so far the average is 3.38. Who cares, you might ask? This is important for a lot of props I do, which tend to abhor field goals.

Assuming 2.98 is the expected mean, the 3.38 average this season is 2.6 standard deviations too high. The chances of that, assuming a true mean of 2.98, is 1 in 216.

I've been doing badly on prop bets this season, mainly due to this glut of field goals. My question is, have there been any changes in the rules of football, or just the way the game has been played this season, that is causing more field goals, or is just a fluke? I know about the rule kicking off 5 yards further down the field, but I don't see how that would have much of an effect. Maybe fewer special teams touchdowns, thus replacing some of them with field goals, but there were never that many special teams touchdowns begin with.

Quote: Wizard

My question is, have there been any changes in the rules of football, or just the way the game has been played this season, that is causing more field goals, or is just a fluke? I know about the rule kicking off 5 yards further down the field, but I don't see how that would have much of an effect. Maybe fewer special teams touchdowns, thus replacing some of them with field goals, but there were never that many special teams touchdowns begin with.

Has the trend been up, down or choppy? Are attempts way up, or are kickers making more FG's?

The lack of training and pre-season games to get the ground game in shape, may have put coaches in more 4th and long situations than before. Pure speculation on my part.

Also, the first half of the season has the better weather. Not only do kickers kick better, but also coaches are more willing to kick longer field goals. What is the average number of FGs through the first nine weeks of the average NFL season?

Quote: 7outlineaway

Also, the first half of the season has the better weather. Not only do kickers kick better, but also coaches are more willing to kick longer field goals. What is the average number of FGs through the first nine weeks of the average NFL season?

I'm afraid I didn't study it by week. I just looked at the team scoring summaries season to date at ESPN.com. However, I do seem to recall having this concern in a past year, but by the end of the year things averaged out. Then again, I am of the opinion that weather is generally overrated when it comes to football. Baseball too. Wind is important, but I have not noticed a correlation between total points scored and temperature. However, I have never studied the correlation between temperature and field goals.

On a related note, is there a ball warmer, so if there is an attempt on a cold day the kicker can grab a nice warm ball out of it?

Of practical concern, I'm showing the bet on first score to be a touchdown on Monday Night Football to be a good bet. However, given the deluge of field goals this season, I'm scared to bet it.

Follow up -- I just studied it. Here is the average number of field goals by week from 2000 to 2010.

Week	FG/game
1	2.91
2	3.20
3	3.01
4	2.99
5	3.14
6	3.00
7	2.80
8	3.02
9	3.06
10	3.08
11	2.96
12	3.01
13	3.03
14	2.91
15	3.00
16	2.70
17	2.95

If you graph it, you'll see a slight downward trend through the year. A least squared regression line goes from about 3.05 in week 1 to 2.90 in week 17. So, I think this might explain it a little bit, but the temperature effect alone doesn't explain an extra 0.4 field goals per game.

I bet the new kick off rules ARE a factor.... way more touchbacks than in the past, so more teams are starting drives at their 20 vs. further up the field, so more drives stall out in field goal range

I thought this year scoring has, in general, been higher?

I don't know what to tell you. I can't make heads or tails of this season, it just seems like a different game. Who would've bet we'd already see a 60+ point game, the 49ers and Lions leading divisions, the Colts 0-for... it's shook up for sure.

Quote: Wizard

On a related note, is there a ball warmer, so if there is an attempt on a cold day the kicker can grab a nice warm ball out of it?

I don't know about a warmer per se, but there are "kicking balls" that get subbed in for kickoffs and field goal tries. I would think they would improve kicking, whether it be just because they're new and clean, made warmer by the ball boy constanly holding it, or actually put in a warmer. But this has been practice for years, and wouldn't really explain this years increase in field goals.

If I had to wager a guess as to the cause, I would put it on the preseason issues. The practice season was shortened quite a bit, so the TD machine isn't really sharpened up like it has been in previous years.

I would have guessed that's it's purely that the average drive is a little bit longer this year... so there's more TDs and more FGs in general. I'd also believe that the punching it in in short yardage is being less effective this year (I've seen several 1st and short goals being defended this year to go for a FG or a turnover on downs).

Quote: thecesspit

I thought this year scoring has, in general, been higher?

Yes. I don't have an exact number average score, but can tell you this:

Total TDs=631
Total FGs=436
Games played=129

If we count all touchdowns as 7, and of course a field goal is 3, that would be 44.38 points per game. Before this season the average was about 41.

That would suggest more scoring in general, which fits with my hypothesis.

Looks like there's half a FG and 1/3 of TD more per game... do you have similar info on Turnover's as well?

Related Trivia Quiz : When was the last time an offence scored 2 points on a normal play? (Not a point after attempt/2-point conversion) in the NFL?