SONBP2
SONBP2
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October 25th, 2011 at 12:57:33 PM permalink
Can someone please do the math on the actual odds of hitting a 20 team parlay? To win the $1million, you have to hit a $5, 20-team parlay, which consists of a combination of against the spread games in college and pro football. I think $1,000,000 is actually a terrible pay out for this bet. Further, there are only a select number of games one can choose from on these million dollar cards, which to some degree may make it more difficult.

Thanks in advance for any comments.
rudeboyoi
rudeboyoi
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October 25th, 2011 at 1:53:46 PM permalink
assuming you have a 50% chance of winning on any game:

(1/2)^20 is the P(Winning) which is 1,048,575:1 so

P(L) = 1,048,575/1,048,576
P(W) = 1/1,048,576

$1,000,000(1/1,048,576) - $5(1,048,575/1,048,576) = -$4.0463

a truly terrible bet with over 80% HE.
SONBP2
SONBP2
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October 25th, 2011 at 2:16:27 PM permalink
I knew the house edge had to be high on this bet, but over 80% house edge that is crazy. Does that make this bet the worst possible bet in the casino?
Ayecarumba
Ayecarumba
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October 25th, 2011 at 2:42:29 PM permalink
Quote: SONBP2

I knew the house edge had to be high on this bet, but over 80% house edge that is crazy. Does that make this bet the worst possible bet in the casino?



In reality, there will be some games that a sharp punter might be able to predict 67/33 instead of 50/50. This knocks the HE down a bit. Keno is still probably the worst bet.
Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
Tiltpoul
Tiltpoul
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October 25th, 2011 at 4:32:07 PM permalink
Quote: SONBP2

I knew the house edge had to be high on this bet, but over 80% house edge that is crazy. Does that make this bet the worst possible bet in the casino?



I don't play parlay cards, but my guess is that with a bit of knowledge, you should be able to get at least 10 of those covered (unless of course they choose games with less than a 3 spread.) The NFL games are more challenging, as teams are usually evenly matched, while college games have a bit more intrigue depending on the line. Doing the coin flip, yes it's a terrible house edge, but with background information, my guess is you can cut that in half, and 40%, while super high still, would not be the worst bet by any means.
"One out of every four people are [morons]"- Kyle, South Park
dwheatley
dwheatley
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October 25th, 2011 at 5:38:37 PM permalink
You could manually parlay $2.42 into $1,000,000 over 20 games at -110 each.

Or $5 into $2,065,812.55

Boo on gimmicks.
Wisdom is the quality that keeps you out of situations where you would otherwise need it
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