Underdogs and Moneylines

I literally have put zero thought into this. I work grave shift, so I am about to sleep but I think some of you would like to fancy this idea. I will post later on... but here's where I am at.

Short Version:
How good of an idea would it be to bet an underdog ATS and also bet them moneyline.


Longer Version:

I have mainly bet ATS for football and basketball. Only during playoffs do I even considering betting MLB or NHL.. so I rarely use moneylines at all.

However, the Pitt/South Florida game on Thursday... the line was USF [-3] .. and I figured Pitt to be huge winners (which they were). So I bet the money line Pitt [+120]. Obviously a win like that made me feel good because it is very rare for me to bet moneyline.

Today I really liked the 49ers to beat Eagles. Eagles were [-10] and 49ers were [+390 money line].. I bet 49ers ATS.. 49ers won straight up.

What I am thinking is... Lets say I am willing to bet 100$ per game. How much value would I have in betting 50 ATS, 50 ML

The Wiz says, "thou shalt not hedge" but this is one of the few rules of his I disagree on. Might be a finance background of mine vs a math background on his part, or might just be personal philosiphy.

I say why not hedge to lock in a win if you are treating sprots-betting as a long-term deal. Or why not hedge to sort of "make your own line."

My advice would be to do it this way. Lets take a standard -110 spread bet. You have $200 to bet. Put $110 of it on the spread. Put the remaining $90 on the moneyline. Do this and if you cover the spread you have a "free" moneyline bet plus $10 for a few beers while you watch the game.

The disclaimer is do not use more than your budget to do this. IOW, don't jump from $100 to $200 bet levels just because AZD gave you an idea on a chat board. When you consider that even the best teams will lose 25% of their games (ie: go 12-4) and most teams should fall between 7-9 and 10-6 outright, there is some logic to trying this.

Good luck.

My motto is never bet what you can not afford to lose

I think I would find some stats on dogs winning outright. I am 23-4 picking ML favorites this year in CFB. 0-2 picking ML dogs. I haven't checked yet, but I think around 50% covered ATS. I will look into the numbers this afternoon if I can find the old spreads (I have the MLs and can probably get close).

Anyway, my opinion is that you would generally lose the profit from the spread bet.

Always bet your strongest bet. A hedge just guarantees you win win less when you win. SUCKER PLAY.

Joe:

This is pretty close based on the 29 bets I have placed this year. There were a couple of games that the hook could have gone either way, so my numbers ATS may be off by a game or two, but maybe not.

Underdogs win outright: 4-25
Underdogs cover: 12-17


The 12 covers obviously include the 4 outright wins. Also, these are just my bets, and in 27 of them, I was looking for the favorite to win outright so I didn't look or consider the spread.

I think I remember The Wizard having some more in depth stats about this. Of course we are polar opposites in our betting strategies. But his numbers will include a far greater number of games.

I will keep better stats for the remainder of the season for the dogs covering.

I had SF money line too today, which was sweet, but still didn't make up for an overall losing day, thanks to no other significant underdogs coming in.

I strongly feel that if you are an underdog bettor, and have the time and ability to shop around, you are better off betting the money line. It takes a stronger stomach, but the advantages are greater. For one thing, there is a lot more volatility in money lines from book to book. You are much more likely to find a soft number on a money line than the spread.

If you are more of a recreational bettor, and need the more frequent wins against the spread for emotional reasons, I would encourage you to at least divide your bet and put some of it on the money line, as long as you are getting a competitive number.

I have a database going back to 78 with ATS results. I know it can be formatted better and explained better but here is the abridged version.

I ran query at the start of the season and posted at another forum.

I'm a numbers guy, so here goes my research results.

Favorites of 3 points that win, cover about 90% of the time.

Favorites win 66% of the time, cover 48% of the time.

Did you know that since 1978-2010 there have been 7,704 regular season games? 7,689 wins 15 ties.
15 ties, home team is 5-10 ATS
S/U winner is 6,240-1,241-208 ATS (83.4%)

HOME TEAM 4,453-3,236-15 (57.9% wins)

Straight Up
Favorites 4,996 wins (66.08%) 4,996-2,564-15
HF S/U 3,467-1,646-10 (67.8%)
RF S/U 1,529-918-5 (62.48)
Pick'em 129 games
Dogs 2,564 wins (33.92%)

ATS
Favorites 3,547-3,820-208 (48.14%)
Home Favorites 2,417-2,566-140 (48.50%)
Road Favorites 1,130-1,254-68 (47.39%)

Point Spread S/U W S/U L S/U T ats W ATS L ATS P
A -23.5 1 0 0 100.00 0 1 0 0.00
A -18.5 1 0 0 100.00 0 1 0 0.00
A -17.5 1 0 0 100.00 0 1 0 0.00
A -16.5 0 1 0 0.00 0 1 0 0.00
A -16 2 0 0 100.00 2 0 0 100.00
A -15.5 2 0 0 100.00 2 0 0 100.00
A -15 2 0 0 100.00 0 2 0 0.00
A -14.5 6 0 0 100.00 4 2 0 66.67
A -14 11 1 0 91.67 5 7 0 41.67
A -13.5 8 0 0 100.00 3 5 0 37.50
A -13 8 4 0 66.67 5 7 0 41.67
A -12.5 6 1 0 85.71 3 4 0 42.86
A -12 6 2 0 75.00 2 5 1 28.57
A -11.5 2 2 0 50.00 1 3 0 25.00
A -11 14 3 0 82.35 8 9 0 47.06
A -10.5 17 6 0 73.91 11 12 0 47.83
A -10 32 11 0 74.42 14 27 2 34.15
A -9.5 28 8 1 77.78 16 21 0 43.24
A -9 29 16 1 64.44 18 28 0 39.13
A -8.5 22 5 0 81.48 13 14 0 48.15
A -8 31 11 0 73.81 20 21 1 48.78
A -7.5 31 14 0 68.89 17 28 0 37.78
A -7 109 37 1 74.66 72 69 6 51.06
A -6.5 80 33 0 70.80 56 57 0 49.56
A -6 90 40 0 69.23 60 67 3 47.24
A -5.5 59 25 0 70.24 42 42 0 50.00
A -5 52 29 0 64.20 31 48 2 39.24
A -4.5 63 25 0 71.59 51 37 0 57.95
A -4 98 53 0 64.90 68 76 7 47.22
A -3.5 125 79 1 61.27 94 111 0 45.85
A -3 271 199 1 57.66 211 223 37 48.62
A -2.5 104 105 0 49.76 96 113 0 45.93
A -2 76 60 0 55.88 67 63 6 51.54
A -1.5 45 59 0 43.27 44 60 0 42.31
A -1 97 89 0 52.15 94 89 3 51.37


H -24.5 1 0 0 100.00 0 1 0 0.00
H -24 1 0 0 100.00 0 1 0 0.00
H -22.5 1 0 0 100.00 0 1 0 0.00
H -21 1 0 0 100.00 0 1 0 0.00
H -20.5 1 0 0 100.00 0 1 0 0.00
H -20 2 0 0 100.00 1 1 0 50.00
H -19.5 1 0 0 100.00 0 1 0 0.00
H -19 3 0 0 100.00 1 2 0 33.33
H -18.5 1 0 0 100.00 1 0 0 100.00
H -18 7 0 0 100.00 2 5 0 28.57
H -17.5 4 1 0 80.00 2 3 0 40.00
H -17 15 2 0 88.24 7 7 3 50.00
H -16.5 3 0 0 100.00 2 1 0 66.67
H -16 16 1 0 94.12 7 10 0 41.18
H -15.5 13 0 0 100.00 9 4 0 69.23
H -15 16 0 0 100.00 7 9 0 43.75
H -14.5 22 5 0 81.48 9 18 0 33.33
H -14 47 12 0 79.66 23 32 4 41.82
H -13.5 52 17 0 75.36 29 40 0 42.03
H -13 65 8 0 89.04 41 31 1 56.94
H -12.5 30 5 0 85.71 17 18 0 48.57
H -12 47 8 0 85.45 23 32 0 41.82
H -11.5 29 5 0 85.29 16 18 0 47.06
H -11 67 14 0 82.72 31 47 3 39.74
H -10.5 65 20 0 76.47 38 47 0 44.71
H -10 144 34 0 80.90 86 84 8 50.59
H -9.5 96 24 0 80.00 64 56 0 53.33
H -9 146 34 0 81.11 90 90 0 50.00
H -8.5 79 16 0 83.16 43 52 0 45.26
H -8 98 33 1 74.81 66 65 1 50.38
H -7.5 122 33 0 78.71 79 76 0 50.97
H -7 266 108 1 71.12 165 196 14 45.71
H -6.5 175 104 0 62.72 119 160 0 42.65
H -6 213 95 1 69.16 158 139 12 53.20
H -5.5 120 55 3 68.57 83 95 0 46.63
H -5 120 50 0 70.59 86 78 6 52.44
H -4.5 122 63 1 65.95 89 97 0 47.85
H -4 181 112 0 61.77 146 143 4 50.52
H -3.5 240 150 1 61.54 178 213 0 45.52
H -3 393 273 0 59.01 286 306 74 48.31
H -2.5 142 116 1 55.04 127 132 0 49.03
H -2 123 100 1 55.16 113 105 6 51.83
H -1.5 61 63 0 49.19 61 63 0 49.19
H -1 116 85 0 57.71 112 85 4 56.85


ATS Breakdown
Dogs 2,564-0 (duh, S/U dogs win ATS all the time)
ROAD/HOME FAVORITES S/U ONLY ATS
Road Game Point Spread S/U W ats W ATS L ATS P %
A -23.5 1 0 1 0 0.00
A -18.5 1 0 1 0 0.00
A -17.5 1 0 1 0 0.00
A -16 2 2 0 0 100.00
A -15.5 2 2 0 0 100.00
A -15 2 0 2 0 0.00
A -14.5 6 4 2 0 66.67
A -14 11 5 6 0 45.45
A -13.5 8 3 5 0 37.50
A -13 8 5 3 0 62.50
A -12.5 6 3 3 0 50.00
A -12 6 2 3 1 40.00
A -11.5 2 1 1 0 50.00
A -11 14 8 6 0 57.14
A -10.5 17 11 6 0 64.71
A -10 32 14 16 2 46.67
A -9.5 28 16 12 0 57.14
A -9 29 18 11 0 62.07
A -8.5 22 13 9 0 59.09
A -8 31 20 10 1 66.67
A -7.5 31 17 14 0 54.84
A -7 109 72 31 6 69.90
A -6.5 80 56 24 0 70.00
A -6 90 60 27 3 68.97
A -5.5 59 42 17 0 71.19
A -5 52 31 19 2 62.00
A -4.5 63 51 12 0 80.95
A -4 98 68 23 7 74.73
A -3.5 125 94 31 0 75.20
A -3 271 211 23 37 90.17
A -2.5 104 96 8 0 92.31
A -2 76 67 3 6 95.71
A -1.5 45 44 1 0 97.78
A -1 97 94 0 3 100.00




H -24.5 1 0 1 0 0.00
H -24 1 0 1 0 0.00
H -22.5 1 0 1 0 0.00
H -21 1 0 1 0 0.00
H -20.5 1 0 1 0 0.00
H -20 2 1 1 0 50.00
H -19.5 1 0 1 0 0.00
H -19 3 1 2 0 33.33
H -18.5 1 1 0 0 100.00
H -18 7 2 5 0 28.57
H -17.5 4 2 2 0 50.00
H -17 15 7 5 3 58.33
H -16.5 3 2 1 0 66.67
H -16 16 7 9 0 43.75
H -15.5 13 9 4 0 69.23
H -15 16 7 9 0 43.75
H -14.5 22 9 13 0 40.91
H -14 47 23 20 4 53.49
H -13.5 52 29 23 0 55.77
H -13 65 41 23 1 64.06
H -12.5 30 17 13 0 56.67
H -12 47 23 24 0 48.94
H -11.5 29 16 13 0 55.17
H -11 67 31 33 3 48.44
H -10.5 65 38 27 0 58.46
H -10 144 86 50 8 63.24
H -9.5 96 64 32 0 66.67
H -9 146 90 56 0 61.64
H -8.5 79 43 36 0 54.43
H -8 98 66 31 1 68.04
H -7.5 122 79 43 0 64.75
H -7 266 165 87 14 65.48
H -6.5 175 119 56 0 68.00
H -6 213 158 43 12 78.61
H -5.5 120 83 37 0 69.17
H -5 120 86 28 6 75.44
H -4.5 122 89 33 0 72.95
H -4 181 146 31 4 82.49
H -3.5 240 178 62 0 74.17
H -3 393 286 33 74 89.66
H -2.5 142 127 15 0 89.44
H -2 123 113 4 6 96.58
H -1.5 61 61 0 0 100.00
H -1 116 112 0 4 100.00
Grand 4996 3547 1241 208 74.08

Quote: TaxmanCPA

Favorites win 66% of the time, cover 48% of the time.

If this is correct it seems you should bet underdogs on the spread and that will cover you to put money on the favorites for the moneyline?

Quote: AZDuffman

If this is correct it seems you should bet underdogs on the spread and that will cover you to put money on the favorites for the moneyline?

That is called an English middle. I can't respect any strategy betting favorites on the money line -- one of the worst strategies in sports betting.