Canyonero
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June 25th, 2017 at 3:46:57 PM permalink
So most guys on here would agree that -550 on Mayweather is a pretty good deal, right?

I am considering placing a sizeable bet on Mayweather, +EV through the roof...

Odds may continue to improve, Connor bets outnumber Floyd bets 3:2
billryan
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June 25th, 2017 at 5:07:38 PM permalink
I'd wait. Lots of stupid money being bet on Connor. Odds should drop more.
The difference between fiction and reality is that fiction is supposed to make sense.
Boz
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June 25th, 2017 at 8:19:33 PM permalink
Quote: billryan

I'd wait. Lots of stupid money being bet on Connor. Odds should drop more.



Insane how much money is coming in already on Connor. Will be interesting how much huge money is bet on Floyd late.
billryan
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June 25th, 2017 at 9:48:34 PM permalink
I imagine Floyd will be betting his entire purse. Wonder if Conner will?
The difference between fiction and reality is that fiction is supposed to make sense.
RogerKint
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June 25th, 2017 at 10:17:03 PM permalink
Quote: billryan

I imagine Floyd will be betting his entire purse.



On which fighter?

Never made a sports bet but I can't see how the odds are so even at this point. I heard that Vegas books didn't even accept action on Tyson v Douglas and those were two boxers.
100% risk of ruin
lilredrooster
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July 26th, 2017 at 3:08:24 AM permalink
from a new york times story today:

“The odds for this fight were first released in November 2016 when it was still just a rumor,” said Joe Osborne, content manager for OddsShark, a sports gambling information site. McGregor started out about 9½-1.The lure of winning $9 or $10 for a dollar bet on McGregor seemed to be much greater than betting a huge amount to win a little on Mayweather. The McGregor money started coming in, and drove down his price, eventually to as low as 3½-1.Dave Mason, a spokesman for the wagering site Betonline.ag, said 89 percent of his book’s bets have been on McGregor.The McGregor bandwagon seems to be driven largely by smaller stakes gamblers. “Due to the odds being so lopsided, you need to bet big to win big on Mayweather,” Bridge said. “So larger wagers are being placed on him. But more individual wagers of smaller amounts have been placed on Notorious.” Mason said he thought the true odds on the fight should be more like 20-1. “I think we’re going to see the sharper bettors come in later,” he said.


7/25 - bovada offers: Mayweather -550; Mcgregor +375. house edge - 6.01% per wizards straight bet calculator.

it's a classic example of many gamblers wrongly believing that a large payout must have "value" and that a small payout cannot have "value."

https://wizardofodds.com/games/sports-betting/straight-bet-calculator/


https://www.nytimes.com/2017/07/25/sports/conor-mcgregor-floyd-mayweather-jr-fight-odds.html?rref=collection%2Fsectioncollection%2Fsports&action=click&contentCollection=sports&region=rank&module=package&version=highlights&contentPlacement=4&pgtype=sectionfront
Last edited by: lilredrooster on Jul 26, 2017
Please don't feed the trolls
Romes
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July 26th, 2017 at 7:21:26 AM permalink
Straight handicapping wise... Mayweather should be -2000 or more. -500, or even now -550, is a steal on Mayweather. If you can find a place that let's you bet $50k to win $10k, like an actual sports book, I'd take that bet all day every day thanks for the free $10k.
Playing it correctly means you've already won.
Wizardofnothing
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July 26th, 2017 at 8:11:05 AM permalink
Anyone looking to bet on this fight?
Looking for some action on mcg.
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RS
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July 26th, 2017 at 9:01:43 AM permalink
Welcome all!

Sportsbook of RS is open to all. I am now taking bets on both McGreggor and Mayhweather. Money must be put up on collateral or whatever it's called. The odds* I'm offering are:

MayhWeather: -2000
McGreggor: -2000


Odds may change at any time.
Wizardofnothing
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July 26th, 2017 at 9:02:57 AM permalink
Um. Yea..... sounds great
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lilredrooster
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July 26th, 2017 at 9:21:46 AM permalink
Quote: RS

Welcome all!

Sportsbook of RS is open to all. I am now taking bets on both McGreggor and Mayhweather. Money must be put up on collateral or whatever it's called. The odds* I'm offering are:

MayhWeather: -2000
McGreggor: -2000


Odds may change at any time.



i don't know any fighter named Mayhweather. what's his record? i don't know any fighter named McGreggor either. there is a Conor McGregor with just one g. is that who you mean? do you accept credit wagering with ethereum the big competitor to bitcoin? i'm looking for EZ credit with no credit check and no late fees.
Please don't feed the trolls
RS
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July 26th, 2017 at 9:28:04 AM permalink
Quote: lilredrooster

Quote: RS

Welcome all!

Sportsbook of RS is open to all. I am now taking bets on both McGreggor and Mayhweather. Money must be put up on collateral or whatever it's called. The odds* I'm offering are:

MayhWeather: -2000
McGreggor: -2000


Odds may change at any time.



i don't know any fighter named Mayhweather. what's his record? i don't know any fighter named McGreggor either. there is a Conor McGregor with just one g. is that who you mean? do you accept credit wagering with ethereum the big competitor to bitcoin? i'm looking for EZ credit with no credit check and no late fees.


I don't know who this trashcan McGreggor dude is.

Mayhweather is how it's pronounced, with an emphasis on the H, even though it's properly spelled Mayweather (or so).
Ibeatyouraces
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July 26th, 2017 at 9:33:14 AM permalink
Quote: RS

Mayhweather is how it's pronounced, with an emphasis on the H, even though it's properly spelled Mayweather (or so).



Exactly...

https://youtu.be/K5lxcajZDFs
DUHHIIIIIIIII HEARD THAT!
DRich
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July 26th, 2017 at 11:19:25 AM permalink
Quote: RS



Mayhweather is how it's pronounced, with an emphasis on the H, even though it's properly spelled Mayweather (or so).



We that are close to him just call him Money.
At my age, a "Life In Prison" sentence is not much of a deterrent.
billryan
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July 26th, 2017 at 11:21:05 AM permalink
Quote: DRich

We that are close to him just call him Money.



Those who really know him refer to him as "broke".
The difference between fiction and reality is that fiction is supposed to make sense.
rxwine
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July 26th, 2017 at 11:52:39 AM permalink
Quote: MrV

Conor is tough, but being a great striker and grappler may lead to victory in the octagon, but you need boxing skills once you get in the ring.
.



It's more real than home field advantage. Essentially, Conner is tying a hand behind his back in skills. Overconfidence says you can beat someone at their own game, but often is not true unless you trained In their game.

However, there's always the lucky blow, or something weird happening like the other guy bleeds all over the place and the fight stops. But I wouldn't count on those sorts of things.
There's no secret. Just know what you're talking about before you open your mouth.
billryan
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July 26th, 2017 at 12:44:59 PM permalink
I'm thinking Connor reverts to an MMA move, gets disqualified and sets up a second match.
The difference between fiction and reality is that fiction is supposed to make sense.
Romes
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July 26th, 2017 at 1:29:03 PM permalink
Quote: billryan

I'm thinking Connor reverts to an MMA move, gets disqualified and sets up a second match.

He loses his purse money if he does that... so that won't happen. He's going to lose, horribly. Mayweather might say "mma next" but I'll bet anyone here right now that fight never happens. Mayweather wants a big payday with little risk for his 50-0 record which he'll "finally" retire on. Oh hi Connor, you're perfect... No downside for Connor either, as he'll make hundreds of millions just for showing up and NOT using MMA. I'd go get my a$$ beat by Mayweather for 1 million, let alone 100 million. Hell, I'd probably do it just to say I fought him without any money.
Playing it correctly means you've already won.
DRich
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July 26th, 2017 at 1:32:16 PM permalink
Quote: billryan

I'm thinking Connor reverts to an MMA move, gets disqualified and sets up a second match.



That was my initial concern but then I heard there is a clause in his contract where he loses a lot of money if that happens.

I am not usually a conspiracy theorist, but I think there is a real chance that Mayweather values the money he would make from two rematches more than the undefeated record. It won't shock me at all if he throws it or he ends up getting disqualified for something.
At my age, a "Life In Prison" sentence is not much of a deterrent.
Rigondeaux
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July 26th, 2017 at 1:58:05 PM permalink
Quote: Romes

Straight handicapping wise... Mayweather should be -2000 or more. -500, or even now -550, is a steal on Mayweather. If you can find a place that let's you bet $50k to win $10k, like an actual sports book, I'd take that bet all day every day thanks for the free $10k.



Pretty sure you'll be able to get 50 K down if you want. Might be at more like -650. But they say money is still coming in on Conner.

I thought you believed Connor would make a decent showing.
Romes
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July 26th, 2017 at 2:26:14 PM permalink
Quote: Rigondeaux

Pretty sure you'll be able to get 50 K down if you want. Might be at more like -650. But they say money is still coming in on Conner.

I thought you believed Connor would make a decent showing.

I've stated every step of the way that people keep inaccurately saying "connor has never boxed..." when in reality he boxes for 2 hour a day EVERY DAY, the difference is Mayweather boxes for 8 hours a day every day. People were saying connor wouldn't even know how to box, which is just inaccurate. He's a good boxer, but the level of difference from him to Mayweather will be quite evident.

My handicapping lines on what I believe is fair (not that I'm willing to book action on these):

Mayweather -2500
Connor +900

Thus why if you can get good money with Mayweather at -500 (which is what Bovada opened its lines at for Mayweather) that's just free money (in my opinion).
Playing it correctly means you've already won.
billryan
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July 26th, 2017 at 2:51:21 PM permalink
Quote: DRich

That was my initial concern but then I heard there is a clause in his contract where he loses a lot of money if that happens.

I am not usually a conspiracy theorist, but I think there is a real chance that Mayweather values the money he would make from two rematches more than the undefeated record. It won't shock me at all if he throws it or he ends up getting disqualified for something.



Even if he loses 90% of his purse, it's still his biggest payday and sets him up for another one. Floyd is in hock to everyone, I doubt even this purse puts him in the black.
IRS will end up with most of it, from taxes owed on the fight and all the back taxes and penalties that have been compounding.
Connors not any better. Last fight in Vegas he was paying $25,000 a night for rooms for him and his forty closest friends.
The difference between fiction and reality is that fiction is supposed to make sense.
djatc
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July 27th, 2017 at 1:59:22 AM permalink
The IRS is the only one that wins in this fight
"Man Babes" #AxelFabulous
SOOPOO
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July 27th, 2017 at 7:39:24 AM permalink
Quote: Wizardofnothing

Anyone looking to bet on this fight?
Looking for some action on mcg.



I would bet on Floyd if you want Connor. Make an offer.
Boz
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July 28th, 2017 at 6:23:13 PM permalink
http://www.vegasinsider.com/boxing/story.cfm/story/1869660

Lots of prop bet options.
billryan
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July 28th, 2017 at 6:25:37 PM permalink
How is this fight even sanctioned? In NY State, a boxer needs several three round fights before stepping up to six, then ten and finally 12 rounds.
Something shadey is going to occur, I truly believe it.
The difference between fiction and reality is that fiction is supposed to make sense.
Ibeatyouraces
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July 28th, 2017 at 6:29:56 PM permalink
Quote: billryan

How is this fight even sanctioned? In NY State, a boxer needs several three round fights before stepping up to six, then ten and finally 12 rounds.
Something shadey is going to occur, I truly believe it.


Maybe it's sanctioned by the WWE.
DUHHIIIIIIIII HEARD THAT!
Boz
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July 28th, 2017 at 6:34:03 PM permalink
Quote: billryan

How is this fight even sanctioned? In NY State, a boxer needs several three round fights before stepping up to six, then ten and finally 12 rounds.
Something shadey is going to occur, I truly believe it.



You could be proven right but I just see it as a money grab and Floyd walking away 50-0, something he has always wanted.

The fans will be feeling the same way they did after the Pacaquio fight, ripped off and saying they will never buy a fight again. And then they will line up like sheet for the next "big" fight.
billryan
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July 28th, 2017 at 7:16:07 PM permalink
Not me. I'm saving my money for Brock Lesner vs John Jones. That should be interesting.
The difference between fiction and reality is that fiction is supposed to make sense.
NokTang
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July 28th, 2017 at 10:45:05 PM permalink
Quote: billryan

Not me. I'm saving my money for Brock Lesner vs John Jones. That should be interesting.



John has to win tonight first. Certainly no lock.
NokTang
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July 28th, 2017 at 10:46:28 PM permalink
Quote: billryan

How is this fight even sanctioned? In NY State, a boxer needs several three round fights before stepping up to six, then ten and finally 12 rounds.
Something shadey is going to occur, I truly believe it.



Coner has his license. Never read about the stepping up in rounds. Whatever that issue really is, it has been resolved. I'm not sure any titles are on the line.
NokTang
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July 28th, 2017 at 10:48:47 PM permalink
Quote: billryan

Even if he loses 90% of his purse, it's still his biggest payday and sets him up for another one. Floyd is in hock to everyone, I doubt even this purse puts him in the black.
IRS will end up with most of it, from taxes owed on the fight and all the back taxes and penalties that have been compounding.
Connors not any better. Last fight in Vegas he was paying $25,000 a night for rooms for him and his forty closest friends.



Your information is alarming, if true....that's the big "if" for me.....Normally these folks don't pay for their rooms, the promoter does. If Floyd is indeed broke and in hock, well it's certainly big news. Any resources for that statement? Thanks.
NokTang
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July 28th, 2017 at 10:51:26 PM permalink
Quote: Romes


Thus why if you can get good money with Mayweather at -500 (which is what Bovada opened its lines at for Mayweather) that's just free money (in my opinion).



If it's free money, the odds should not matter to you. However, I think the windows are open at -500 up to -650 as we read....and, well, it's not free until after the fight but free is free so step up. Cheers mate.
Boz
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July 29th, 2017 at 8:08:06 AM permalink
Any thoughts on the O/U of 20 punches landed by CM? Is there value if you think it is going to be a short fight?

Berto landed 83 vs Floyd and Pac landed 81 in his last 2 fights that went the distance.
billryan
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July 29th, 2017 at 8:48:12 AM permalink
UFC doesn't pay for a fighters entourage, and Mayweathers tax trouble is public knowledge. His lawyers recently asked the IRS to hold off putting a tax lien for 2015 until he collects his money for this fight. Google it.
The difference between fiction and reality is that fiction is supposed to make sense.
Johnzimbo
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July 29th, 2017 at 9:28:17 AM permalink
Mayweather is a sure thing....like no safety in the Super Bowl right?
Wizardofnothing
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July 29th, 2017 at 9:31:15 AM permalink
I'm taking mcg. Any one interested in Floyd?
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Boz
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July 29th, 2017 at 11:32:54 AM permalink
Quote: Johnzimbo

Mayweather is a sure thing....like no safety in the Super Bowl right?



No such thing as a sure thing in gambling but you will miss a lot of opportunities with that attitude.
Wizardofnothing
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July 29th, 2017 at 11:35:02 AM permalink
I have 450 in action so far on mcg with soopoo. . Anyone else interested?
No longer hiring, don’t ask because I won’t hire you either
SOOPOO
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July 29th, 2017 at 3:00:59 PM permalink
Quote: Wizardofnothing

I have 450 in action so far on mcg with soopoo. . Anyone else interested?



I'm risking $450 to win $100. I think the phraseology for you (WON) would be you have $100 in action. I think the "in action" refers to the money you are risking.
Wizardofnothing
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July 29th, 2017 at 3:12:06 PM permalink
You are correct ,
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MrV
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August 12th, 2017 at 12:00:04 AM permalink
South Point just booked a $880,000.00 bet on Mayweather.
"What, me worry?"
RS
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ams288
August 12th, 2017 at 1:01:01 AM permalink
Damn, they sure reported a story on my bet pretty quickly.
SOOPOO
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August 12th, 2017 at 5:05:24 AM permalink
Quote: MrV

South Point just booked a $880,000.00 bet on Mayweather.



My bet was in Euros... 800,000.... That is not an accurate conversion rate.
lilredrooster
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August 12th, 2017 at 1:35:36 PM permalink
the got damned wussy assed sports book manager at caesars wouldn't take my $5 million bet on mayHweather

i'm headed over to borgata

i hope he takes it

this big ass bag is getting HEAVY!!!
Please don't feed the trolls
Wizardofnothing
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August 12th, 2017 at 2:09:14 PM permalink
Well I did get refused on a 25k bet on the fight at golden nugget so who knows
Then again they also turned down 3k bet on the second half of a preseason football game this week also
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ThatDonGuy
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August 12th, 2017 at 3:10:13 PM permalink
Quote: Johnzimbo

Mayweather is a sure thing....like no safety in the Super Bowl right?


Or Michael Moorer against George Foreman.
OOPS - that should be "George Foreman against Michael Moorer"

Or Buster Douglas against Mike Tyson.

Or Manny Pacquiao against Timothy Bradley (the first time). You never know what the judges are thinking.

Question: how far in advance do they announce who the judges will be? You would think this might affect the betting.
Last edited by: ThatDonGuy on Aug 12, 2017
lilredrooster
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August 12th, 2017 at 3:18:05 PM permalink
Quote: ThatDonGuy

Or Michael Moorer against George Foreman.

Or Buster Douglas against Mike Tyson.

Or Manny Pacquiao against Timothy Bradley (the first time).




the difference between Michael Moorer, Buster Douglas, Timothy Bradley and Conor McGregor is that they were boxers and spent years training as boxers. McGregor is not even a boxer. there isn't all that much similarity between what he does and what boxers do. the match is a publicity stunt, not a real boxing match. it's basically a joke. kind of like a great home run hitter who challenges dustin johnson to a golf match because he thinks he has a great swing.
Please don't feed the trolls
ThatDonGuy
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August 12th, 2017 at 3:35:23 PM permalink
Quote: lilredrooster

the difference between Michael Moorer, Buster Douglas, Timothy Bradley and Conor McGregor is that they were boxers and spent years training as boxers. McGregor is not even a boxer. there isn't all that much similarity between what he does and what boxers do. the match is a publicity stunt, not a real boxing match. it's basically a joke. kind of like a great home run hitter who challenges dustin johnson to a golf match because he thinks he has a great swing.


My mistake - that should be "George Foreman against Michael Moorer." And who realistically thought Foreman wasn't too old to beat Moorer?

True, McGregor is more likely to be like Michael Spinks than Buster Douglas, but that's the thing with an unknown quantity like McGregor's boxing skill; sometimes it takes just one lucky shot.
lilredrooster
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August 12th, 2017 at 4:07:18 PM permalink
anybody who thinks mcgregor has some kind of halfway decent chance to win is basically disrespecting the sport of boxing

it is a sport that requires a tremendous amount of skill

you cannot jump into a ring with no experience and match up competitively with one of the greatest boxers of all time

a lucky shot is not impossible. but very, very, very unlikely. mayweather has competed in 49 fights. he has already probably had somewhat more than 10,000 shots taken at him. and not one has taken him down.

imho you would be better off blindly picking out a 30/1 shot at the track and betting on him.
Please don't feed the trolls
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