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lilredrooster
lilredrooster
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June 1st, 2017 at 9:31:14 AM permalink
Romes: i'm not exactly sure what you are asking but this linked odds converter may be helpful. type in the money line odds and it will automatically provide you with this:

US Odds: Odds in US format (a negative number expresses the dollar amount that would need to be wagered in order to win $100, while a positive number expresses the dollar amount that would be won from a $100 wager)
Decimal Odds: Odds in decimal format (expresses the amount that would be returned from a $1 bet *inclusive* of original stake)
Fractional Odds: Odds in fractional format (expresses the fraction of a dollar that would be won from a $1 bet)
Implied Probability: The win probability that would imply zero vig on the offered line

you also might find the 2nd link helpful. this mathlete at sbr went through tons of data and provided a spread to money line converter but only for the nfl or nba or ncaaf or ncaab


https://www.sportsbookreview.com/picks/tools/odds-converter/

https://www.sportsbookreview.com/picks/tools/spread-ml-converter/

if the book is offering live odds on baseball and you bet on a team at -130 before the game started and in the fifth inning they were up 3-1 and the book then offers their opponents at +260 you could take that bet and construct your bet in a way to guarantee that you would win when considering the 2 bets as one bet. it doesn't necessarily mean that you had an edge immediately before or after you made your first bet though.
Last edited by: lilredrooster on Jun 1, 2017
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Romes
Romes
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June 1st, 2017 at 11:22:49 AM permalink
Thanks for the links rooster, I'll definitely check them out (I think DrawingDead posted the first one).

I'm not referring to hedging either, with a way to "guarantee" some kind of winnings by betting both sides after a game starts and the lines change. What I'm referring to is basically the Wizards Half Point Parlay "idea" on steroids. So let's say the fare line of a game has the favorite at -220. I find a shop that's willing to book my action on the favorite at +120. That has got to be a substantial edge. I'm looking for a way to quantify how much of an edge I have given the shop booking +120 is way off the actual line of -220 that "everyone" else has.
Playing it correctly means you've already won.
lilredrooster
lilredrooster
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June 1st, 2017 at 12:12:10 PM permalink
Quote: Romes

I'm not referring to hedging either, with a way to "guarantee" some kind of winnings by betting both sides after a game starts and the lines change. What I'm referring to is basically the Wizards Half Point Parlay "idea" on steroids. So let's say the fare line of a game has the favorite at -220. I find a shop that's willing to book my action on the favorite at +120. That has got to be a substantial edge. I'm looking for a way to quantify how much of an edge I have given the shop booking +120 is way off the actual line of -220 THAT EVERYONE ELSE HAS.


in the situation that you describe it sounds like the book offering the +120 has made a mistake. this happens sometimes. books will often refuse to pay when they catch the mistake which they usually do.
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Romes
Romes
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June 1st, 2017 at 12:31:13 PM permalink
Let's pretend that... Exactly that... Say the book made a big mistake, but they honored all bets made at the lines they offered. How would I go about calculating my % advantage given the "fair line" set by 99 other books is -220 for the favorite, yet I got my bet on the favorite at +120? That's what I'm trying to get at. What would my advantage be if I got it at -120? I'm looking for a way to get from -220 to -120 (100 "odds/points/etc/etc" difference). So what's that 100 difference worth?

i.e. correlation/conversion of "points/odds/whatever you want to call them" to advantage.
Playing it correctly means you've already won.
lilredrooster
lilredrooster
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June 1st, 2017 at 12:44:56 PM permalink
Quote: Romes

Let's pretend that... Exactly that... Say the book made a big mistake, but they honored all bets made at the lines they offered. How would I go about calculating my % advantage given the "fair line" set by 99 other books is -220 for the favorite, yet I got my bet on the favorite at +120? That's what I'm trying to get at. What would my advantage be if I got it at -120? I'm looking for a way to get from -220 to -120 (100 "odds/points/etc/etc" difference). So what's that 100 difference worth?

i.e. correlation/conversion of "points/odds/whatever you want to call them" to advantage.



my answer would be this according to the odds converter that i posted:

-220 implies a 68.75% chance team A will win - this is the correct implied odds not considering the takeout
+120 implies a 45.45% chance team A will win not considering the takeout

due to the mistake you gained 23.30% edge w/o considering the book takeout which is usually around 4.55% although often a little less on a big favorite on the money line

so your actual implied edge is about 18.75%

what often happens in this situation is some wiseguy sees the mistake and makes a huge bet and this tips the book off
Last edited by: lilredrooster on Jun 1, 2017
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Romes
Romes
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June 1st, 2017 at 1:27:31 PM permalink
So in the scenario above, the 140 "odds/points/whatever" they are separated by equates to an 18.75% (assuming the vig).

So 140 = 18.75% is the correlation I'm looking to make.

Assuming the math is relative...


Points/Odds Different Player Advantage
500
66.96%
200
26.79%
150
20.09%
100
13.39%
50
6.70%


Does that make sound sense then?
Playing it correctly means you've already won.
lilredrooster
lilredrooster
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June 1st, 2017 at 1:32:35 PM permalink
i wouldn't want to answer that definitively. we're getting into an area where i could easily make a wrong mathematical assumption. i'm not a mathlete. but anytime you see a similar edge it can easily be checked with the linked converter.
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Romes
Romes
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June 1st, 2017 at 1:36:43 PM permalink
Hmmm, Mike would probably know best. I need to bring this to his attention =P.

For some reason on the half point parlays I thought him finding the spread at even just a half point difference was worth a lot. I'm curious because I figured the difference in odds would be worth a lot more (not that they're bad edges at all, just figured with an educated guess form my readings they were worth a lot more).
Playing it correctly means you've already won.
bazooooka
bazooooka
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June 1st, 2017 at 1:41:10 PM permalink
Sure, "in game" live betting the odds will swing like that if someone scores a run or something. But pregame that would be very unusual and likely an injury. As far as "edge" the best bettors use historical databases and if they think a situation only occurs 40% of the time but you are getting 25% implied odds (use the odds converter) then I'd think that's an edge that over 100s of similar bets you could make a few bucks.

Quote: bazooooka

Romes,

Odds don't go from -260 to +140 unless an ace pitcher went down just before game time. But you really just need to do an odds converter and bet anytime you think you have an edge. Many times people will bet dogs when they approach +200 or more since it's said that even an all triple AAA replacement team would win 1/3rd of the time according to sabermetrics. I typically will play dogs that pay +240 or more when they show up on the rarest of occasions. An MLB team can beat any other MLB team over 30% of the time regardless of matchup according to long term data even factoring in the games best teams/pitchers vs MLB worst teams.

lilredrooster
lilredrooster
Joined: May 8, 2015
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June 1st, 2017 at 1:57:55 PM permalink
from my own betting experience i have found that for me re sports betting it is always best to consider that your true edge is significantly less than what you have calculated as in the example i used. for a variety of reasons i can't exactly pinpoint your edge never seems to be as large as you think. unlike blackjack where the question can be answered exactly right and with authority. kind of like when a store takes inventory and almost always finds that they have less than they're supposed to. shrink. also, the point you made, Romes, is well taken. i've heard from others that there are sometimes wide discrepancies in lines offered for live betting and not due to mistakes. it is something that can possibly be taken advantage of more so than in betting that is not live.
Last edited by: lilredrooster on Jun 1, 2017
everybody wants to go to heaven. but nobody wants to die.

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