Wizard
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Wizard
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September 18th, 2010 at 12:27:23 PM permalink
Please see my post below.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
Nareed
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September 18th, 2010 at 12:35:49 PM permalink
Quote: Wizard

I like the NO at -200. For those who don't know, there are 5 games played at 1PM EST.



According to the NFL's own site, there are 9 games played at 1 PM EST on week 2.
Donald Trump is a fucking criminal
Wizard
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Wizard
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September 18th, 2010 at 12:41:45 PM permalink
Quote: Nareed

According to the NFL's own site, there are 9 games played at 1 PM EST on week 2.



Dang! You're right, that is embarrassing. I was thinking of 1PM Pacific Time. NEVER MIND!!! Thanks for the correction.

Given so many games, I think it is safe to take an average in this situation. The overtime probability in the NFL is 6.4%. So the probability that at least one game will go into overtime out of 9 games is 1-(1-.064)^9 = 44.86%. That makes the fair line on the YES +123. Currently you get +160 on YES side, so I think that is a great bet.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
Nareed
Nareed
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September 18th, 2010 at 1:00:06 PM permalink
You're welcome.

Thank my many years of watching football. I'm used to having most games at noon CST. I plan my Sundays around that.
Donald Trump is a fucking criminal
AZDuffman
AZDuffman
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September 18th, 2010 at 1:02:51 PM permalink
Quote: Nareed

You're welcome.

Thank my many years of watching football. I'm used to having most games at noon CST. I plan my Sundays around that.



I miss living in the west where games came on at 10:00 or 11:00 AM. And I have yet to meat an easterner who lived there who disliked it.
All animals are equal, but some are more equal than others
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