I finished the calculations for the ATS results over the past two years. I analyzed and extrapolated the data, trying to find a correlation between my system picks and Vegas oddsmaker data. I currently pull oddsmaker data from every Vegas and every offshore book for every week of seasonal play. The goal is not to prove or disprove anything. The overall goal is to find an edge within the results that provides inherent value.
I personally did not do well last year. During previous years, I focused on ML values and was doing fine. However, the last two years I've been trying to shift to an ATS only format as the return value is greater. The results below show a great deal of promise for 2017. The data below is accurate.
In the topmost case, if the spread was an oddsmaker favorite between -31 and -37.5 and it was a also a system favorite on my site, picking the opponent to cover produced a 73.33% winning pct.
In the second and third cases, if the spread was an oddsmaker favorite between the ranges posted above and it was also a system favorite on my site, picking the favorite to cover produced 72.38% and 78.31% respectively. The majority of games were posted in the -1 to -9.5 bracket.
In the final case, if the spread was an oddsmaker underdog between +24 and +35 and the underdog was considered a system favorite on my site (contradicting the oddsmaker), picking the underdog to cover produced a 77.78% result.
The overall number of games for the past two years that fit the criteria was 548 games. 412 won, 125 lost, 11 pushed. The overall winpct was 76.72%. If using a $100 game wager per game as a flat bet per game, discounting the pushes (since no money would be won or lost), $53,700 would have been wagered. The total gains would be $37,080 and the total losses would be $12,500. The net gains would be $24,580.
The goal this year is to use a similar wagering structure and ATS criteria. However, I'm still working through all of the losses to find any correlating trends that worked against the system. My goal is to produce a 3-5% additive value to the current results.
The ATS calculations for all other markers showed little to no promise as providing an edge when comparing them against both systems. Therefore, those ATS markers are not posted.
These are for College Only. I'll post the NFL results by next weekend.