JoelDeze
JoelDeze
Joined: Apr 20, 2016
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March 11th, 2017 at 11:15:58 PM permalink
I finished the calculations for the ATS results over the past two years. I analyzed and extrapolated the data, trying to find a correlation between my system picks and Vegas oddsmaker data. I currently pull oddsmaker data from every Vegas and every offshore book for every week of seasonal play. The goal is not to prove or disprove anything. The overall goal is to find an edge within the results that provides inherent value.

I personally did not do well last year. During previous years, I focused on ML values and was doing fine. However, the last two years I've been trying to shift to an ATS only format as the return value is greater. The results below show a great deal of promise for 2017. The data below is accurate.



In the topmost case, if the spread was an oddsmaker favorite between -31 and -37.5 and it was a also a system favorite on my site, picking the opponent to cover produced a 73.33% winning pct.

In the second and third cases, if the spread was an oddsmaker favorite between the ranges posted above and it was also a system favorite on my site, picking the favorite to cover produced 72.38% and 78.31% respectively. The majority of games were posted in the -1 to -9.5 bracket.

In the final case, if the spread was an oddsmaker underdog between +24 and +35 and the underdog was considered a system favorite on my site (contradicting the oddsmaker), picking the underdog to cover produced a 77.78% result.

The overall number of games for the past two years that fit the criteria was 548 games. 412 won, 125 lost, 11 pushed. The overall winpct was 76.72%. If using a $100 game wager per game as a flat bet per game, discounting the pushes (since no money would be won or lost), $53,700 would have been wagered. The total gains would be $37,080 and the total losses would be $12,500. The net gains would be $24,580.

The goal this year is to use a similar wagering structure and ATS criteria. However, I'm still working through all of the losses to find any correlating trends that worked against the system. My goal is to produce a 3-5% additive value to the current results.

The ATS calculations for all other markers showed little to no promise as providing an edge when comparing them against both systems. Therefore, those ATS markers are not posted.

These are for College Only. I'll post the NFL results by next weekend.
“Know where to find information and how to use it; that is the secret of success.” – Albert Einstein
lilredrooster
lilredrooster
Joined: May 8, 2015
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March 12th, 2017 at 4:18:17 AM permalink
Quote: JoelDeze

The overall number of games for the past TWO YEARS that fit the criteria was 548 games. 412 won, 125 lost, 11 pushed. The overall winpct was 76.72%.


Congratulations Joel. That is a fairly large sample. I think you may have certified yourself as the greatest college football handicapper of all time. I can't wait to read about how you crushed with your NFL bets too.

Here's what you said about last year re college football: " I personally did not do well last year."


That means you may have hit on close to 90% in the year before that. Absolutely superb.
Last edited by: lilredrooster on Mar 12, 2017
everybody wants to go to heaven. but nobody wants to die.
LuckyPhow
LuckyPhow
Joined: May 19, 2016
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March 12th, 2017 at 5:55:26 AM permalink
Quote: JoelDeze

I finished the calculations for the ATS results



I don't bet on sports, but Joel apparently lives, eats, and breathes the stuff. So, if you're like me, you may be confused by his (undefined) reference to "ATS."

I was confused about why he would be referencing the All-Tall-Small craps bet. Possible, as Joel has previously indicated he sometimes plays craps. But, in this case, he was (almost certainly, I'm pretty durn sure) referring to "Against The Spread," something (probably) well-understood by those who bet on sports (and other various) contests.

Joel, please correct me if I am still confused. I'm no ATS expert.
SOOPOO
SOOPOO
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March 12th, 2017 at 7:33:18 AM permalink
Joel...... 412-125. Seriously, if I told you I had a system that achieved those results, and published a large table (GIVING NOT A SINGLE SPECIFIC) "proving" that I achieved those results, what would you think?

Do you think you have now found a 'system'that will repeatedly achieve the 77% results you say you got? If so, please buy me a Maserati after you get your Lamborghini.....
SM777
SM777
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March 12th, 2017 at 8:40:58 AM permalink
Quote: lilredrooster

Congratulations Joel. That is a fairly large sample. I think you may have certified yourself as the greatest college football handicapper of all time. I can't wait to read about how you crushed with your NFL bets too.

Here's what you said about last year re college football: " I personally did not do well last year."


That means you may have hit on close to 90% in the year before that. Absolutely superb.



Haha. Such a perfect response.
JoelDeze
JoelDeze
Joined: Apr 20, 2016
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March 12th, 2017 at 8:41:21 AM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO

Joel...... 412-125. Seriously, if I told you I had a system that achieved those results, and published a large table (GIVING NOT A SINGLE SPECIFIC) "proving" that I achieved those results, what would you think?

Do you think you have now found a 'system'that will repeatedly achieve the 77% results you say you got? If so, please buy me a Maserati after you get your Lamborghini.....



Two years of results is a very small sample size. All I said was that I'm "hopeful" for 2017 based on the discovery data.

I will put together a table summary for all of the data and post it today.
“Know where to find information and how to use it; that is the secret of success.” – Albert Einstein
SM777
SM777
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March 12th, 2017 at 8:41:37 AM permalink
Best of luck during March Madness, Joel. We look forward to hearing how you crushed the books and went 25-0 in hopes of gaining someone to sign up to your site.
JoelDeze
JoelDeze
Joined: Apr 20, 2016
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March 12th, 2017 at 11:07:44 AM permalink
Quote: SM777

Best of luck during March Madness, Joel. We look forward to hearing how you crushed the books and went 25-0 in hopes of gaining someone to sign up to your site.



I don't bet on basketball. I don't post links to my site or tout my site. Every bit of information I share has no reference, links, or pointers (direct or indirect) to my site. I did that "once" when I first joined as an intro and have never done so again.

I've never understood the hate when someone posts information. No where in the information I posted in this topic did I ever once said I crushed or won all of the picks. In fact, I stated very clearly, for anyone that read it, that I did not do well last year. My ATS picks were average at best last year.

As far as my site is concerned, it is mainly a "research site" filled with a ton of data for people to comb through. Most people have an idea of what they want to do as far as wagering. All I do is provide them the data so they can determine if they have an advantage on a game.

What I like about the Wizard and this site is that it contains a lot of easy to read data for many types of games. It's number 1 in my book. My site only focuses on football (college and pro). My goal is to provide as much data as possible on any team or game. I have more than 150 data models where I perform detailed regression analysis to help define and determine predictors.

Since we had a rough start last year SM777, I'll offer my apologies to you for anything negative that I said or implied in any conversation where we differed in opinion. I'm really tired of fighting. It's not productive.
“Know where to find information and how to use it; that is the secret of success.” – Albert Einstein
TomG
TomG
Joined: Sep 26, 2010
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Thanks for this post from:
RisingDough
March 12th, 2017 at 2:24:03 PM permalink
I can guarantee that next year there will be some angle that wins 400 out of 500 against the spread. I can also guarantee that the chance of it being the same angle as last year is near zero
SOOPOO
SOOPOO
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March 12th, 2017 at 2:31:19 PM permalink
Quote: JoelDeze

Two years of results is a very small sample size. All I said was that I'm "hopeful" for 2017 based on the discovery data.

I will put together a table summary for all of the data and post it today.




412-125 on even money bets is NOT a small sample size. The likelihood of that win % over 537 events randomly is 1 out of a number with LOTS of zeroes. Most distressing is a man who claims to know a lot about betting NOT realizing that a 412-125 record would likely be the best record over 537 even money bets in the history of human gambling.

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