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RS
RS
Joined: Feb 11, 2014
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February 4th, 2017 at 12:17:57 AM permalink
Stone cold lock of the century: Super double tease Falcons +28 at +210 odds.

You heard it here first.


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"should of played 'Go Fish' today ya peasant" -typoontrav
lilredrooster
lilredrooster
Joined: May 8, 2015
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onenickelmiracle
February 4th, 2017 at 2:07:52 PM permalink
The fascinating thing about sports betting is that it's so mysterious. You might have won betting NCAAB 2 seasons in a row and you might think you have an edge. But you might have made only a hundred or so bets so you can't really know if you had an edge. Your ego tells you that you have an edge but who knows. Things change. Trends reverse themselves. You lose confidence. You become less sharp. It's impossible to assign a true probability to a sports event. It can only be estimated. One time a book had a tout who sent me a newspaper with a giant front page headline saying Oregon was going to crush Oregon State in football many years ago. Oregon State beat Oregon by 48 points if I remember correctly.
everybody wants to go to heaven but nobody wants to die
TomG
TomG
Joined: Sep 26, 2010
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February 4th, 2017 at 3:18:36 PM permalink
Quote: lilredrooster

It's impossible to assign a true probability to a sports event. It can only be estimated.



The question then becomes how accurate can we make our estimates? The less accurate we are in our probabilities, the more susceptible the sportsbooks are to getting beat. The difficulty in beating the sportsbooks is what illustrates so well how good the estimates really are.

There are between 5,000 and 6,000 college basketball games available to bet every year. That's over 20,000 possible choices on side, total, moneyline, game and first half. If someone has won two years in a row, and been beating the closing lines, we can use that information to estimate what their edge is on each bet.
onenickelmiracle
onenickelmiracle
Joined: Jan 26, 2012
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February 4th, 2017 at 5:12:45 PM permalink
Seemed like Classic Empire was mentioned everywhere, the heavy favorite, but Irish War Cry was as well, 15-1, and it placed for a nice pay $13.60 place and $8 show. Are the racing shows and YouTube videos considered touts? I think they are in my opinion, because they give advice free in expectation their website or network will make money.

Correction: Irish War Cry was 15-1 morning line and won the race, approximately 4-1. The site I was looking at must have malfunctioned showing the wrong track or something. It paid $10.80, $4, $2.20.
Last edited by: onenickelmiracle on Feb 4, 2017
Looks like sh!t just got imaginary!
Rigondeaux
Rigondeaux 
Joined: Aug 18, 2014
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Thanks for this post from:
onenickelmiracle
February 5th, 2017 at 12:54:02 PM permalink
I think the horse people are considered touts. I think maybe the term was first applied to them. I wish I knew more about racing, but the paramutual aspect and the take out make it seem really hard to me.

Some people object to giving away picks for free with affiliate links, since you often only make money with an affiliate if your customers lose. I've done that myself, but I can see their argument. Gambling is kind of a dirty business so I think you're rarely going to pass the WWJD test if you are involved in it

I know at least two people who have tried to be honest touts. They offered all of their picks for a fairly modest monthly fee. In theory, this could be helpful to someone who bets pretty big.

In practice, you still have no real way of knowing if the tout is good. You'll also struggle to get the same bets as them, either because lines have moved or because they have 25 outs and you have 4. Also, I think if they care about winning for clients, it messes with their heads.

I think your strategy of listening to them and judging their reasoning for free is fine. It seems very unlikely to hurt. I listen to some guys, like Fezik, occasionally. I tailed one of his SB props this year. But I would not have if I didn't get a good price.
Rigondeaux
Rigondeaux 
Joined: Aug 18, 2014
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February 14th, 2017 at 1:59:47 PM permalink
Quote: onenickelmiracle

I can see a case if their advice is better than randomly picking bets.



On second thought, maybe just go with random picks.

Lando
Lando
Joined: Aug 14, 2014
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February 24th, 2017 at 8:14:02 AM permalink
Quote: Boz

Nothing like the old days of Mike (Lasky) Warren, Jim Feist, Stu Feiner and former Vice Presidential Candidate Wayne Allan Root. Somehow Root has made himself seem legitimate writing for the Review Journal and distancing himself from his time as a scamdicapper back in the days of 1-900 numbers.



College bball Saturdays with root are a fade fest. He goes 1-4 nearly every time I've seen his picks.

Genius.
Lando
Lando
Joined: Aug 14, 2014
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February 24th, 2017 at 8:16:24 AM permalink
Quote: lilredrooster

The fascinating thing about sports betting is that it's so mysterious. You might have won betting NCAAB 2 seasons in a row and you might think you have an edge. But you might have made only a hundred or so bets so you can't really know if you had an edge. Your ego tells you that you have an edge but who knows. Things change. Trends reverse themselves. You lose confidence. You become less sharp. It's impossible to assign a true probability to a sports event. It can only be estimated. One time a book had a tout who sent me a newspaper with a giant front page headline saying Oregon was going to crush Oregon State in football many years ago. Oregon State beat Oregon by 48 points if I remember correctly.



you are right on lil red

now though computers and models are so tight, long term they are on it, but even they have to be tweaked

What the real pros or syndicates do is get high volume and early lines, which increases their ROI by 2-5%

With enough and high amount bets this is how they win long term because they move the lines

But even they have wash or slightly down months.
Lando
Lando
Joined: Aug 14, 2014
  • Threads: 9
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February 24th, 2017 at 8:20:04 AM permalink
Quote: TomG

The question then becomes how accurate can we make our estimates? The less accurate we are in our probabilities, the more susceptible the sportsbooks are to getting beat. The difficulty in beating the sportsbooks is what illustrates so well how good the estimates really are.

There are between 5,000 and 6,000 college basketball games available to bet every year. That's over 20,000 possible choices on side, total, moneyline, game and first half. If someone has won two years in a row, and been beating the closing lines, we can use that information to estimate what their edge is on each bet.



Tom proving my point that the models are real good, or that at least they make it really hard to beat a 10% vig (maybe the most important fact).

Correcting the above, the models are good enough to have an error margin in 10% vig

Throw emotion and recreational play and the books always win, unless they are exposed in inefficient markets. It happens, but rarely. And they limit greatly.

I always said, the biggest myth is that "Vegas knows blah blah blah"

No they don't. They know quickly how off their early lines are, which means a lot their original numbers aren't very good. The market knows. They know the sharp bets and trends and adjust. Betting into closing lines is tough long term. Very tough. Vegas doesn't know, the market does.
onenickelmiracle
onenickelmiracle
Joined: Jan 26, 2012
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February 24th, 2017 at 8:40:39 AM permalink
Quote: Lando

you are right on lil red

now though computers and models are so tight, long term they are on it, but even they have to be tweaked

What the real pros or syndicates do is get high volume and early lines, which increases their ROI by 2-5%

With enough and high amount bets this is how they win long term because they move the lines

But even they have wash or slightly down months.

That's true. You'd think in horse racing, you're against real people betting, but there are massive organizations with computer programs betting millions based on their analysis and it's all set up with the tracks. The tracks still get their cut, so they don't really care.
Looks like sh!t just got imaginary!

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