Super Bowl LI (2017) prop betting
That said, Bob Dancer invited me to be a guest on the show to discuss my picks this year. This year, I declined. He put together a statement about why, which was accurate, but I preferred to write my own. That said, here it is. I'm posting it here because as long as I wrote a statement for Bob and Richard's show, I may as well post it here too, as I know I'll get asked eventually for my picks.
Quote: Wizard
After much thought and money lost, I have decided to retire from proposition bet making in the NFL. The primary reason for this is the game is played differently than it was in the early 2000's. The data on which my bets were made go back to 2000, when the rules were different. In an effort to make the game safer, the NFL has put a ball and chain on defenses, resulting in higher scoring games.
As evidence, between 2000 and 2005, the average total points scored per game was 41.92. In the regular season of 2016 it was 45.54. That may not sound like huge difference, but advantages have been slim lately, so an increase in points scored of 8.6% in points scored makes a difference in perceived advantages. Virtually all the props I like favored boring, uneventful, and low-scoring games. This should not come as a surprise, as the square bettors prefer prop bets that favor exactly the opposite.
Another change in the game is kickers are now much better than they were just ten years ago. In the 2000 season there were an average of 2.92 field goals per game. In the 2016 regular season there were 3.34. I figure this is partially due to the higher scoring nature of the game and also the kickers can simply kick further. In the entire 2000 season there were 37 field goals made of 50 yards or more, or 0.0714 per game. In the 2016 regular season there were 85, or 0.166 per game. I think it is very dangerous to use data from a period with few field goals to bet on a game played today.
Yet another factor is I think there is a lot more competition from other sharp prop bettors. No longer are the advantages over 20%, which were commonplace ten years ago. I don't know where all these competitors came from but I suspect I'm partially responsible for drawing attention to betting NFL prop bets. In other words, I'm a victim of my own success.
Finally, the Super Bowls of 2014 and 2016 were abject disasters for me. While, 2015 went well, I know the trend since I started doing this around 2005 would be a negative one. Four safeties in the last eight Super Bowls have not helped.
In conclusion, I am not saying that I will absolutely never make another prop bet. In fact, I made some on the AFC and NFC championship games, which went badly. I may make some small wagers that I have made every Super Bowl, just because old habits are hard to die, but I won't be betting thousands of dollars on each one like I used to do. More like in the low hundreds. Nor will I be promoting specific bets here or on the radio. Sorry, but for Super Bowl 2017, you're on your own.
1) There will be a safety. I won one year on the very last play of the game( Baltimore) and the next year on the very first play( Seattle).
2) Overtime. I haven't collected yet. Came damn close the one year as it was tied with under a minute to play.
However, every year I lose, I toss $5 more in the next year. When it eventually hits, I'll collect all my losses.
Enjoy.
However, I look forward to hearing about the successful evolution of your database, and receiving any timely crumbs off of your table.
How far does your data go, or is it up until now (ie: does it include 2010-2016)?
Quote: RSThanks for helping us with the prop bets in year(s) past.
How far does your data go, or is it up until now (ie: does it include 2010-2016)?
You're welcome. The data covers every game from the 2000 to 2014 seasons. I never bothered to update it for the 2015 or 2016 seasons, as it is rather time consuming to end enter every single score. Plus, there was a defensive two-point conversion on 12/6/15, between the Saints and Panthers, that my program is not set up to handle. I would probably have to just ignore that game to make things work, which I hate to do. Somehow, I'm more comfortable removing a whole season from the data than a single game.
Thanks for all the education and entertainment the last few years. Sorry to hear it's no longer lucrative.
Not that you should; but you could.
Meanwhile I'm betting no Safety, not only in the spirit of the Wiz but because I still think it is a good bet regardless of a few bad years. In fact I think the past failures only make it a better bet.
I do hope you look at the data out and come back with picks in the future. You may think, rightly, the game has changed, but I still believe there are good bets out there. I just may not be the guy to find them but you are.
Some hightlights:
Odds on Bill Belichick's hoodie color in the Super Bowl:
Blue: 3/4
Grey: 5/3
Red: 9/1
No hoodie: 9/1
Lady Gaga's hair color during halftime show
Blonde/Yellow -170
Brown +200
Green +1000
Pink +1500
White +1500
Blue +1500
Purple +2000
Orange +2000
How many commercials will Peyton Manning appear in during the Super Bowl broadcast?
Over 1.5 (+120)
Under 1.5 (-150
Quote: BozMeanwhile I'm betting no Safety, not only in the spirit of the Wiz but because I still think it is a good bet regardless of a few bad years. In fact I think the past failures only make it a better bet.
Let me get this straight. Past history gives us a better chance in the Super Bowl? Why doesn't this work on roulette or in craps? This advice sounds like my buddy playing Video Poker telling me that he can't leave now cause the machine is heating up!
Quote: monet0412Quote: BozMeanwhile I'm betting no Safety, not only in the spirit of the Wiz but because I still think it is a good bet regardless of a few bad years. In fact I think the past failures only make it a better bet.
Let me get this straight. Past history gives us a better chance in the Super Bowl? Why doesn't this work on roulette or in craps? This advice sounds like my buddy playing Video Poker telling me that he can't leave now cause the machine is heating up!
I talking about adjustments in the line, not the chances of it happening or not happening. I see it as a better value than in the past. I could be wrong and should have worded it better.
Quote: Ayecarumba
How many commercials will Peyton Manning appear in during the Super Bowl broadcast?
Over 1.5 (+120)
Under 1.5 (-150
I cannot believe you can get a bet down on this. I am sure there are dozens if not hundreds of TV/advertising agency employees that know the answer to this already.
Quote: SOOPOOI cannot believe you can get a bet down on this. I am sure there are dozens if not hundreds of TV/advertising agency employees that know the answer to this already.
Same with Lady Gaga's haircolor. The stylist, or even Lady G herself could cash in. I suspect the limits on these have to be pretty low, and the book could always suspend payment pending an "inquiry".
Quote: AyecarumbaSame with Lady Gaga's haircolor. The stylist, or even Lady G herself could cash in. I suspect the limits on these have to be pretty low, and the book could always suspend payment pending an "inquiry".
Imo, white is worth more than +1500. Best way for her to stand out from far away, and she's done it before.
Quote: AyecarumbaSame with Lady Gaga's haircolor. The stylist, or even Lady G herself could cash in. I suspect the limits on these have to be pretty low, and the book could always suspend payment pending an "inquiry".
Last year or the year before casinos (Vegas strip) stopped taking bets on the national anthem over-under a couple of hours before the game. I always suspected it was because someone heard the practice performance and leaked that it was short/long.
Turns out I have a coworker going to Vegas next week...
Quote: SOOPOOI cannot believe you can get a bet down on this. I am sure there are dozens if not hundreds of TV/advertising agency employees that know the answer to this already.
Here is part of the alphabet that would include Nationwide:
- M -
Mars
The candy brand returns with a Snickers Super Bowl 2017 ad and a Skittles Super Bowl 2017 ad.
Mercedes-Benz
German luxury carmaker Mercedes-Benz is coming back to the Big Game. The Mercedes Super Bowl 2017 Ad was confirmed at the NAIAS 2017.
Michelob Ultra
Mr. Clean
Procter & Gamble spent the reported $5 million on a Mr. Clean Super Bowl 2017 Ad.
- N -
- O -
- P -
http://www.i4u.com/2016/12/118621/super-bowl-2017-advertisers
This was supposedly done when ti was 90% sold...
All of your reasons for not wanting to post/publish anything this year make sense to me. Though, I could not help but notice a comparison...
Many players (not me) were upset because you released machine data on the tax day rebate downtown. They thought this directly affected their bottom line and income as players. It seemed in that thread that you felt you were doing your regular service to the community in releasing the information on the machines. Now that NFL betting has dried up a little due potentially to the same freedom of information, is there any part of you that doesn't want to do the bets because you don't want to be a victim of your own success?
Again, I've never held anything but the highest respect for you and your work Mike, just curious if you see the comparison here and if you have any reflections/thoughts on the comparison.
Quote: RonCHere is part of the alphabet that would include Nationwide:
- M -
Mars
The candy brand returns with a Snickers Super Bowl 2017 ad and a Skittles Super Bowl 2017 ad.
Mercedes-Benz
German luxury carmaker Mercedes-Benz is coming back to the Big Game. The Mercedes Super Bowl 2017 Ad was confirmed at the NAIAS 2017.
Michelob Ultra
Mr. Clean
Procter & Gamble spent the reported $5 million on a Mr. Clean Super Bowl 2017 Ad.
- N -
- O -
- P -
http://www.i4u.com/2016/12/118621/super-bowl-2017-advertisers
This was supposedly done when ti was 90% sold...
Peyton Manning also does Papa John's Pizza ads, but I note that it is not on your list either.
There are also local ads sold by each station. I wonder how that figures in the end?
1) Will the first Coaches Challenge overturn (-115) or will the play stand (-115)?
I don't get why these are the same number... Given coaches have a history and percentage attached to their challenges, and the fact that at the Super Bowl I'm sure each team will have a "team" up in the booth reviewing plays and asking for challenges, etc... I would think "overturn" would be a favorite?
2) Will a 2 point conversion be Successful (+130) or Not Successful (-200).
Also, right above this bet was "Will there be a 2 point conversion attempted" at -150... So "if" that's a fair line then for an extra -50 you can protect your bet with a second level of protection? Not only would one have to be attempted, but then successful to lose that bet?
*Disclaimer: I don't do very much NFL betting and don't have any kind of data like the Wizard always did... Just general conversation/discussion.
Quote: RomesI just put some small bets on the game... Anyone else have any opinions on this:
1) Will the first Coaches Challenge overturn (-115) or will the play stand (-115)?
I don't get why these are the same number... Given coaches have a history and percentage attached to their challenges, and the fact that at the Super Bowl I'm sure each team will have a "team" up in the booth reviewing plays and asking for challenges, etc... I would think "overturn" would be a favorite?
I think "overturn" too. There's got to be some stats on the coaches challenges in the playoffs. Also, I would think the fact that there are more cameras recording the action during the playoffs, and that the game will be indoors so the pictures will be clearer makes the outcome more likely. I don't know why there's no vig though.
Quote: Romes2) Will a 2 point conversion be Successful (+130) or Not Successful (-200)
Does this mean if no 2-pt conversion is attempted, the bet is a push?
Quote: RomesMany players (not me) were upset because you released machine data on the tax day rebate downtown. They thought this directly affected their bottom line and income as players. It seemed in that thread that you felt you were doing your regular service to the community in releasing the information on the machines. Now that NFL betting has dried up a little due potentially to the same freedom of information, is there any part of you that doesn't want to do the bets because you don't want to be a victim of your own success?
Thanks Romes for the kind words. Ultimately, my philosophy is the world would be a better place if there were open access to information. I understand that when somebody writes about an advantage play it benefits those who didn't know and may hurt those who already did. In some cases there is only so much pie to go around and revealing information doesn't have a net total gain to players. However, sometimes there is plenty of pie and revealing information allows more people to enjoy the pie.
In the case of the Plaza promotion, there were plenty of machines available and the Plaza never stopped it early or kicked people out (correct me if I'm wrong). So that somebody else, I think DarkOz, wrote about it only caused more people to benefit and didn't hurt those who already knew about it.
About being the victim of my own success -- I would be proud of that. It means I have helped players win, or lose less, which has been my mission for 20 years.
I took it as if there isn't a successful one you win. So if there isn't one, you win... I'd have to double check but that's the way it seemed to me.Quote: Ayecarumba...Does this mean if no 2-pt conversion is attempted, the bet is a push?
I would have to say already, mission success. I was just curious on your outlook now, and if that's changed at all because of this. Let's pretend you are a victim of your own success with NFL betting. Let's say you personally move on and find some great bets in other sports. Would you be more hesitant now to share that information knowing that it will lead to the opportunity ultimately drying up, like the NFL? Or do you still keep the same philosophy of the free information?Quote: Wizard...About being the victim of my own success -- I would proud of that. It means I have helped players win, or lose less, which has been my mission for 20 years.
Fun question: What is the monetary amount to you in which you would no longer share the information of a play/promotion/bet/etc/etc? As in, if you didn't share you personally would make $1,000,000... but if you share you personally would only make $500,000.... or again if you shared you wouldn't make anything (so costing you $1,000,000). At what amount of value to you would you deem it not worth sharing, or at what amount after you've won would you then share the information?
That's all you need to know.
Quote: RomesI would have to say already, mission success. I was just curious on your outlook now, and if that's changed at all because of this. Let's pretend you are a victim of your own success with NFL betting. Let's say you personally move on and find some great bets in other sports. Would you be more hesitant now to share that information knowing that it will lead to the opportunity ultimately drying up, like the NFL? Or do you still keep the same philosophy of the free information?
I would have to cross that bridge when I get to it. I'm not a total saint. I was doing NFL props for a while, and doing well, before I started sharing my picks.
Super Bowl 51 -- Proposition Bets
I plan to go downtown this afternoon so plan to add the Golden Nugget, William Hill, and Stations this evening.
Note these lines at the South Point casinos:
No safety: -700
No overtime: -750
Quote: Wizard...
Note these lines at the South Point casinos:
No safety: -700
No overtime: -750
They're practically giving the No Safety away. The two teams have smart QB's and just okay Defenses. I would not fault you for indulging.
All the other casinos I went to (MGM, Stations, WH) all only had the basic props.
Quote: AyecarumbaThey're practically giving the No Safety away. The two teams have smart QB's and just okay Defenses. I would not fault you for indulging.
I'm pretty sure one of the four safeties in the last eight years had Tom Brady at fault. Either he got sacked in the end zone or intentionally threw a pass to nobody from his own end zone.
Quote: WizardI'm pretty sure one of the four safeties in the last eight years had Tom Brady at fault. Either he got sacked in the end zone or intentionally threw a pass to nobody from his own end zone.
Yeah, it was five years ago against the Giants. He got pinched for intentional grounding in the end zone. However, the Giants had an elite defense that year. I don't think the Falcons will generate the same kind of mistake.
Quote: WizardI just posted some prop sheets at this new page:
Super Bowl 51 -- Proposition Bets
I plan to go downtown this afternoon so plan to add the Golden Nugget, William Hill, and Stations this evening.
Note these lines at the South Point casinos:
No safety: -700
No overtime: -750
You have Rampart posted as South Point
Quote: JohnzimboYou have Rampart posted as South Point
They have the same lines. Most people call them the South Point lines, because the South Point sets them and approves large bets.
Quote: megapixelsI'm a total practice squad rookie on injured reserve when it comes to sports betting, can you parlay multiple prop bets into one bet? I will be in Vegas that weekend so I figure I might as well throw a little money down for fun. Any other pages/guides on WOO you might recommend?
Most (all?) prop bets cannot be parlayed with each other.
Quote: ahiromuMost (all?) prop bets cannot be parlayed with each other.
Pretty much all. Sometimes books will put out parlay cards where you can pick whatever you want, but they usually take out a lot of juice and strive to make everything uncorrelated.
Quote: WizardJust put up a bunch more prop sheets here. Sorry for the blood on some of the pages. I got a paper cut taking the pictures.
"taking the pictures"
is that code for the mob flexing their muscles on you to not make bets this year?
Quote: WizardSorry for the blood on some of the pages. I got a paper cut taking the pictures.
No one can claim the Wizard is not committed to us players.
Quote: djatcis that code for the mob flexing their muscles on you to not make bets this year?
Ha! No. If they have any beef with me it would be over me stealing the moniker of Donald Angelini.
Leave it to me to get a paper cut flipping pages. This page got the worst of it, which wasn't bad.
$1000 bet per superbowl to win $100.
-$4000 and won $400.
net -$3600?
and how do you explain so many safeties in the superbowl lately?
Quote: 100xOddsQuote: WizardLeave it to me to get a paper cut flipping pages. This page got the worst of it, which wasn't bad.
9999 to 1 to score only 1 point?!
is that even possible?
Yes. A safety in the course of an extra point kick attempt is now worth 1 point instead of the ball being dead as soon as the defense touched it. This rule was changed when the extra point attempt got moved further back a few seasons ago.
Quote: 100xOddsQuote: WizardLeave it to me to get a paper cut flipping pages. This page got the worst of it, which wasn't bad.
9999 to 1 to score only 1 point?!
is that even possible?
Yes, it is possible now with the changes on an extra point attempt. The defense could score a 1-point safety.
EDIT: Nevermind that's not possible.
EDIT 2: I'll just parlay Falcons 4 against Patriots 2 for $1 to pay $50,000,000. If anyone is interested in such a wager, I'd like the money from both parties to be put up in escrow with someone I trust.
Already feels like I have more riding on that than I would like, but also probably going to keep doing it if that number is still around next week. Would like to buy off some at 58.5 next weekend, but might not be there. Could be a big high or low on game day.
There is good value on some of the quarter sides and total in Las Vegas. The Las Vegas sports books will move those numbers on action trying. But we can figure out what a fair line should be based on the game line. Best I've seen so far is 2q under 14.5 +120. Also: Falcons 2q +0.5 -120; 1h under 28.5 ev; Patriots under 31.5 -105
Player props will be the same way next week
Quote: RomesAll of your reasons for not wanting to post/publish anything this year make sense to me. Though, I could not help but notice a comparison...
Many players (not me) were upset because you released machine data on the tax day rebate downtown. They thought this directly affected their bottom line and income as players. It seemed in that thread that you felt you were doing your regular service to the community in releasing the information on the machines. Now that NFL betting has dried up a little due potentially to the same freedom of information, is there any part of you that doesn't want to do the bets because you don't want to be a victim of your own success?
Again, I've never held anything but the highest respect for you and your work Mike, just curious if you see the comparison here and if you have any reflections/thoughts on the comparison.
Quote: WizardThanks Romes for the kind words. Ultimately, my philosophy is the world would be a better place if there were open access to information. I understand that when somebody writes about an advantage play it benefits those who didn't know and may hurt those who already did. In some cases there is only so much pie to go around and revealing information doesn't have a net total gain to players. However, sometimes there is plenty of pie and revealing information allows more people to enjoy the pie.
In the case of the Plaza promotion, there were plenty of machines available and the Plaza never stopped it early or kicked people out (correct me if I'm wrong). So that somebody else, I think DarkOz, wrote about it only caused more people to benefit and didn't hurt those who already knew about it.
Well, they did disable the $5 VP shortly after you posting it on here (idk if posting here was the cause of it, IMO -- I think it's at least fair to say it very well could have been). I don't know of anyone from WOV that played it that wasn't already planning on playing it. The $5 VP being taken out not only hurt the APs financially (since we couldn't make money on it), but also hurt other non-APs who wouldn't been happy to sit on a machine for $10-20/hour leading up to the promo. Also wasted hours spent simming the game to come up with a bankroll required, other contingencies (what happens if they turn off the $5 machines mid-play after we're stuck $20k?), what kind of risk people want to take investing in the bankroll....then it gets muddied to all hell when the primary machines get taken out.
