Keeneone
Keeneone
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May 3rd, 2017 at 8:31:02 PM permalink

My guess for the "Wiseguy play" is going to be Hence (15/1 morning line). His Sunland Derby victory continues to be a "key" 3 year old race.

Sunland Derby:
Hence won.
Conquest Mo Money ran 2nd and then finished 2nd in the OAK Arkansas Derby.
Hedge Fund finished 3rd and has since finished 2nd in the HAW Illinois Derby.
Irap ran 4th and then came back to win the KEE Bluegrass Stakes.

Hence ran 2nd (by a neck) in a mile maiden event over the Churchill Downs main track last fall. He has completed 4 very good works (including one bullet) at Churchill Downs since the Sunland Derby. His trainer (S. Asmussen) continues to beam about his energy and the quality of his works. He received an excellent post position (#8) and a new rider (F Geroux). Cons would be a new rider for the Derby, last race was 6 weeks before Derby, and his closing style can result in traffic issues.

Any other Wiseguy derby chatter out there?
beachbumbabs
Administrator
beachbumbabs
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May 3rd, 2017 at 8:38:35 PM permalink
Quote: Keeneone


My guess for the "Wiseguy play" is going to be Hence (15/1 morning line). His Sunland Derby victory continues to be a "key" 3 year old race.

Sunland Derby:
Hence won.
Conquest Mo Money ran 2nd and then finished 2nd in the OAK Arkansas Derby.
Hedge Fund finished 3rd and has since finished 2nd in the HAW Illinois Derby.
Irap ran 4th and then came back to win the KEE Bluegrass Stakes.

Hence ran 2nd (by a neck) in a mile maiden event over the Churchill Downs main track last fall. He has completed 4 very good works (including one bullet) at Churchill Downs since the Sunland Derby. His trainer (S. Asmussen) continues to beam about his energy and the quality of his works. He received an excellent post position (#8) and a new rider (F Geroux). Cons would be a new rider for the Derby, last race was 6 weeks before Derby, and his closing style can result in traffic issues.

Any other Wiseguy derby chatter out there?



When did horses start to be tagged with ads like NASCAR racers? What a revoltin' development.
"If the house lost every hand, they wouldn't deal the game."
Keeneone
Keeneone
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May 3rd, 2017 at 9:19:49 PM permalink
Quote: beachbumbabs


When did horses start to be tagged with ads like NASCAR racers? What a revoltin' development.



Yum brands is the Corporate sponsor of the KD.

From this article:
https://www.kentuckyderby.com/horses/news/kentucky-derby,-oaks-workouts-to-be-streamed-live-on-twitter;-exclusive-830-845-a.m.-training-window-begins-saturday

"Training hours at Churchill Downs will be 5:45-10 a.m. daily through May 4 with an 8-8:30 a.m. break to renovate the racetrack. A special 15-minute session from 8:30-8:45 a.m. is exclusive to Kentucky Derby and Kentucky Oaks participants and any workmates. The specially-made Derby and Oaks saddle towels must be worn to gain access to the racetrack during that window."
Ibeatyouraces
Ibeatyouraces
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May 3rd, 2017 at 9:28:54 PM permalink
Quote: beachbumbabs

When did horses start to be tagged with ads like NASCAR racers? What a revoltin' development.


Everything is a commercial racket these days....

"And that's what Christmas is all about Charlie Brown."
"And that's the bottom lineeeee, cuz Stone Cold said so!"
JyBrd0403
JyBrd0403
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May 3rd, 2017 at 11:55:50 PM permalink
The rain forecast has messed me all up here. I have no idea how Always Dreaming will handle a sloppy track.

AD also has a potential post position problem. With Fast and Accurate going to the lead, and State of Honor heading out there too. AD will have to go out there with them (unless he wants to drop back, which I don't think is best).

If they squeeze him, like what happened to CE in the Arkansas Derby, his race is over right there IMO. I was looking at 2014 Derby, AD wants to do exactly what California Chrome did from the 5 spot, go to the lead then rate back IMO. I think JR Valezquez will be able to handle that, I just don't know if AD can handle the track conditions or not.

Hence broke his maiden on a sloppy track, so he looks like he can handle the weather. I don't know if he's as fast as CE and AD though.

Classic Empire also broke his maiden on a sloppy Churchill Downs track, but it was only a distance of 4 1/2 furlongs.

McCracken, and Irish War Cry also become interesting to me. Heck at 50-1 Fast and Accurate even becomes interesting.

Not very confident, CE looks the best to me, but waiting to see how the track looks Saturday.

Good Luck.
lilredrooster
lilredrooster
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May 4th, 2017 at 3:03:20 AM permalink
Here are the Tomlinson scores which some use to predict a horse's performance on a wet track. I've never used these. But I've heard others calling his projections brilliant. This is from turf writer Gene Kershner from Buffalonews.com. GLTA

This measure of a horse's ability on a wet track was the brainchild of Lee Tomlinson who studied past performances of a sample of horses based on how they performed on wet tracks and their pedigrees. A wet Tomlinson score ranges from 0 to 480 (a perfect score). Experts have noted that a score of 320 warrants consideration of a horse that should perform well on an off-track. Based on my annual Derby spreadsheet, the following horses have the top wet Tomlinson figures heading into the Derby:

PP Horse Wet ML

17 Irish War Cry 443 6-1
16 Tapwrit 441 20-1
15 McCraken 435 5-1
9 Irap 418 20-1
11 Battle of Midway 417 30-1
19 Practical Joke 413 20-1
AE21 Royal Mo 402 20-1
6 State of Honor 400 30-1
8 Hence 398 15-1
20 Patch 393 20-1

Two of the projected top five horses have wet Tomlinson figures that would suggest they will run well on an off track (Irish War Cry and McCraken). Two of Todd Pletcher's three entries also find themselves in the top 10 (Tapwrit and Patch).
Last edited by: lilredrooster on May 4, 2017
everybody wants to go to heaven but nobody wants to die
DrawingDead
DrawingDead
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May 4th, 2017 at 12:27:12 PM permalink
Since I know there's that law that says I'm required to come up with an opinion on this...

I'm picturing a "sloppy-sealed" track. Which would not be the same as muddy or sticky and a drying-out "cuppy" surface at all. Very much an "off" track, but one that can often be particularly advantageous to having at least tactical speed. I keep coming back to Graham Motion's colt, Irish War Cry, with a weighted average winning distance from his sire (x2) + damsire (x1) of 7.3f, and at least "route" speed.

I don't do Tomlinson numbers, not because I'm against them at all for anyone who has found them useful, but I just don't know anything about the Tomlinson methodology and haven't got any history with them myself giving me any feel for how to use them sensibly.

>> RANT: And I believe those poor sad infantile souls stumbling drunkenly through the world without adult supervision (not folks in this particular thread, so far as I'm aware) who could ever think of doing things like imagining it might somehow be a great idea to bet real money blind simply based on some third party "picks" (rather than using them to learn how to find their own assets with both hands & give momma evidence she actually had a child that lived) or primarily because "Mr. Z says X" about a pony, mindlessly without the bother of getting any understanding of how that "Mr. Z" brews his "X" about a horsey, while lacking any interest in learning whatever game their money is playing in, is someone who urgently needs to be gelded so they can't breed. /END-RANT <<

But the wet-track data I use, which I think may have only very limited utility here for a possible sloppy-sealed surface, also has Irish War Cry at an above average B+ implied by the progeny of his sire/damsire. So I guess I'm officially about to be DrawingDead on Irish War Cry, without any great confidence.

So there you go, in the unlikely event anyone is foolish enough to care.
Last edited by: DrawingDead on May 4, 2017
Nevermind.
Keeneone
Keeneone
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May 4th, 2017 at 3:31:25 PM permalink
So far 10 horses have already participated in a race over an "off" dirt surface.
#1 Lookin At Lee - Muddy track finished 2nd of 8 @ Churchill Downs.
#4 Untrapped - Muddy track finished 2nd of 11 @ Fairgrounds.
#8 Hence - Sloppy track finished 1st of 9 @ Oaklawn.
#9 Irap - Sloppy track finished 4th of 8 @ Santa Anita.
#10 Gunnevera - Sloppy track finished 2nd of 7 @ Gulfstream.
#11 Battle Of Midway - Wet Fast track finished 1st of 7 @ Santa Anita.
#12 Sonneteer - Good track finished 2nd of 7 @ Del Mar.
#14 Classic Empire - Sloppy track finished 1st of 8 @ Churchill Downs.
#16 Tapwrit - Sloppy track finished 1st of 7 @ Gulfstream.
#18 Gormley - Sloppy track finished 1st of 7 @ Santa Anita.

Most performed pretty well in the "off" going. The question (as already mentioned earlier in the thread) is how the others will perform if the track is not "fast" on race day. I think this is when some people will look at Tom #'s, pedigree, and mud percentages for some assistance. I will try and provide one Derby example:
Lets assume my 2 derby picks are McCraken and Always Dreaming (same morning line odds of 5/1). If the track is "fast" it is difficult to separate them. If the track comes up "off" McCraken becomes more appealing (after consulting the mud #s).
speedycrap
speedycrap
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May 4th, 2017 at 3:50:32 PM permalink
$50WPS on Hence(8). $20 EX Hence with Classic Empire. $5 Classic Empire with Hence. $5 Hence with ?.
Does it sound good? Any other suggestion?
speedycrap
speedycrap
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May 4th, 2017 at 4:17:51 PM permalink
Tri 8 14 with 8 14 with 1 2 10 15
Super 8 14 with 8 14 with 1 2 10 15 with 1 2 10 15.
?????

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