lilredrooster
lilredrooster
Joined: May 8, 2015
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March 25th, 2017 at 11:33:48 AM permalink
This is not about KY future betting but I didn't want to start another thread. Arrogate just won the Dubai World Classic at 1/9 coming back from dead last after breaking very poorly. The race caller referred to him as "the Man o' War of the 21st Century." 1/9 in field of 14 of the greatest racehorses in the world. His stretch run was electrifying.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ChoW7QAHfKA
Last edited by: lilredrooster on Mar 25, 2017
everybody wants to go to heaven. but nobody wants to die.
lilredrooster
lilredrooster
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onenickelmiracle
April 9th, 2017 at 3:08:48 AM permalink
All the faves were beaten yesterday in the big preps. McCraken and Tapwrit were beaten badly by Irap, a 30-1 shot in the Blue Grass who had lost all of his previous 7 races. It looks like the Derby will be wide open and whoever is the fave will probably go off at high odds, maybe 4/1 or something like that.
everybody wants to go to heaven. but nobody wants to die.
DrawingDead
DrawingDead
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onenickelmiracle
April 9th, 2017 at 5:31:57 AM permalink
The Santa Anita Derby was painfully, grass growing, paint drying, slower than slow. As opposed to the Wood and the Bluegrass, which were merely slow. The contestants will need significant improvement over the next four weeks to achieve mediocrity.

I was in LA this weekend. The weather was nice, and the main track surface in Arcadia was not cuppy or dull.
Nevermind.
Keeneone
Keeneone
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April 14th, 2017 at 5:01:00 PM permalink
Only ~ 3 weeks left until the Derby...
2 preps left to run tomorrow. Arkansas Derby and Lexington Stakes.
Arkansas Derby pps:
http://www1.drf.com/formulator-web/FreeRace.do?trackId=OP&country=USA&raceDate=20170415&dayEvening=D&raceNumber=11#past-performance-race/11
I am sticking with Untrapped in this one. Mike Smith jumps aboard for this race. Untrapped has done little wrong, but he has yet to really put up a big performance. The addition of blinkers for his 6th start is an interesting change. Malagacy's outside post (#12), possible distance limitations, and low odds make him a pass in this event for me (and the Derby for that matter). Classic Empire has the class but is questionable at this point (poor 2017 debut, month+ break in training). I also have a small interest in Lookin At Lee earning enough points to make the Derby field.
The Lexington Stakes will not produce a Derby runner this year but is a possible prep for the Preakness...GLTA
Last edited by: Keeneone on Apr 14, 2017
ronnief
ronnief
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April 14th, 2017 at 5:28:13 PM permalink
Classic Empire should win in class alone. Won 2 G1 races last year. Needed his first start this year. No horse here has ever won a Grade 3. Yes, there is a grade 2 winner. The Rebel. the horse who finished second is a 9 race maiden, 7 of those races MSW.
Untrapped was 3rd in that race, with no excuse.
Keeneone
Keeneone
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onenickelmiracle
April 14th, 2017 at 5:38:36 PM permalink
Quote: ronnief

Classic Empire should win in class alone. Won 2 G1 races last year. Needed his first start this year. No horse here has ever won a Grade 3. Yes, there is a grade 2 winner. The Rebel. the horse who finished second is a 9 race maiden, 7 of those races MSW.
Untrapped was 3rd in that race, with no excuse.


Classic Empire is the buzz horse for the Ark Derby...


"Untrapped was 3rd in that race, with no excuse."
FWIW, owner/trainer claimed the 3 weeks between Fairgrounds Risen Star and Oaklawn Rebel left Untrapped a little short.
onenickelmiracle
onenickelmiracle
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April 14th, 2017 at 6:00:04 PM permalink
I have not verified this myself, but have heard Classic Empire looks thin. Today I was going to bet $20 on Ever So Clever, but decided to not bet it so much, only bet $2 and won $33.60. Ouch I guess, but got something.

This article swayed me to take a chance after the favorites were nowhere last week.
Looks like sh!t just got imaginary!
Keeneone
Keeneone
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April 14th, 2017 at 6:29:24 PM permalink
Quote: onenickelmiracle

I have not verified this myself, but have heard Classic Empire looks thin. Today I was going to bet $20 on Ever So Clever, but decided to not bet it so much, only bet $2 and won $33.60. Ouch I guess, but got something.

This article swayed me to take a chance after the favorites were nowhere last week.


Congrats on the win. Last to first win collaring the front runner late. Her Fantasy running line looks like most of Lookin At Lee's past running lines. I certainly hope Steve A. pulls off a 3yo Oaklawn feature double.
onenickelmiracle
onenickelmiracle
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April 14th, 2017 at 11:13:53 PM permalink
The Arkansas derby, I can't make my mind up, but am ignoring Classic Empire and Malagacy until new evidence comes to light. Thinking of Petrov, maybe Sonneteer, not sure, my decision is going around in circles with many. Will have to do some more reading, maybe see what I see on TVG. Haven't been watching much the last few weeks, months really.
Looks like sh!t just got imaginary!
lilredrooster
lilredrooster
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onenickelmiracle
April 15th, 2017 at 1:44:51 AM permalink
I don't like the short odds or post position 12 for Malagacy. but I have to respect a horse who has done everything he's been asked in every race. jocks and trainers like horses fairly close to the lead in the early stages of a race and he's been there. they love horses that focus and draw clear in the stretch and he's done that every time. he could be the monster the derby field seems to be lacking so far. it will be very interesting. Sonneteer made a tremendous rally to go from 10th to 2nd in the Rebel but he didn't gain an inch on Malagacy in the stretch.
everybody wants to go to heaven. but nobody wants to die.

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