2017 KY Derby & Triple Crown contenders
April 30th, 2017 at 2:11:25 PM
permalink
I haven't been keeping up with racing, but Gunnevera has been my horse I've been wanting to play. Girvin, I haven't heard much about, can't recall him in a race I've seen or remember anything about him. I've heard a few people pushing Hence. I'm still confused about closers, deep closers, which are these this year or does anyone know.Quote: FinsRuleI'm off the McCracken bandwagon.
My picks are:
Gunnervera
Irish War Cry
Girvin
If I had to put a 4th in a super, Thunder Snow
I am a robot.
April 30th, 2017 at 2:44:51 PM
permalink
Quote: onenickelmiracleI haven't been keeping up with racing, but Gunnevera has been my horse I've been wanting to play. Girvin, I haven't heard much about, can't recall him in a race I've seen or remember anything about him. I've heard a few people pushing Hence. I'm still confused about closers, deep closers, which are these this year or does anyone know.
There is no strict definition of a closer or a deep closer but if a horse is 5 or more lengths back at the 2nd call I would call that horse a closer. The horse you like Gunnerva is definitely a closer and if you look at the free PPs that Keeneone provided you will see that he was 9 lengths back at the 2nd call in his last race and in another race as much as 15 lengths back. The closer tries to take advantage of front runners who have tired by expending more energy in the early stages of the race and because of this he can sometimes draw clear of them late in the race. He has the disadvantage of often being forced wide or getting blocked or having to check. Closers often tend to be plodders and they are rarely capable of the burst of speed that is the mark of a great horse. However there have been throughout racing history a few great closers. I just looked again at Gunnerva's PPs and I see that he is also capable of being closer to the lead as what I would call a stalker and in those races where he has stalked he has done well.
http://interactives.courier-journal.com/docs/derby2017/derby.pdf
Please don't feed the trolls
May 2nd, 2017 at 9:59:20 PM
permalink
These are the closers, according to horseracingnation, Gunnevera, Looking At Lee, Sonneteer, JBoys Echo, Hence.
I am a robot.
May 3rd, 2017 at 12:25:05 PM
permalink
May 3rd, 2017 at 12:36:53 PM
permalink
Quote: onenickelmiracleThese are the closers, according to horseracingnation, Gunnevera, Looking At Lee, Sonneteer, JBoys Echo, Hence.
Here are the likely pace setters:
Fast And Accurate - Owner has stated this horse will go for the lead.
State Of Honor
May find themselves on the lead:
Battle Of Midway
Irish War Cry
Irap
Royal Mo (if he draws in)
May 3rd, 2017 at 1:06:36 PM
permalink
Egads, now I really have to do something to get on the right side of that law that says I have to bet on THIS event, if I want to have anything to do with this game. I have somewhat fewer KY Derby future-book tickets this year than I have in the past. Zero is somewhat fewer.Quote: KeeneoneKentucky Derby 2017 Complete Past Performances:
http://www.brisnet.com/brisnet_promos/KYDerby17.pdf
Suck dope, watch TV, make up stuff, be somebody on the internet.
May 3rd, 2017 at 1:53:20 PM
permalink
Classic Empire looks like a very good SHOW bet.
May 3rd, 2017 at 2:52:46 PM
permalink
Always Dreaming is very inexperienced but very interesting. I'm not saying he will win. But he definitely looks like he has potential. Some horses are not going to like the stampede of 20 horses. And some are going to think it's fun. Impossible to predict this.
Last edited by: lilredrooster on May 3, 2017
Please don't feed the trolls
May 3rd, 2017 at 3:03:54 PM
permalink
Girvin will be running on a quarter crack, assuming he goes to post Saturday. For those not familiar, a quarter crack is basically a hoof that has cracked kind of like a split in a fingernail, except that a big powerful horse is running on that somewhat larger equivalent of a nail, and with the crack the force of running hard tends to force it to spread apart farther and deeper. At worst, if not properly cared for, potentially with fatal results. I don't bet on horses with quarter cracks. I just don't. At all. Ever.
There are things that can be done to sometimes allow some horses to run on some quarter cracks, including "bar shoes" that help hold the hoof together. In less publicized events, showing up with bar shoes and the like is the usual way of discovering that someone is trying to run on a quarter crack. I understand he's been staying in shape mostly by swimming, with some light work on a synthetic surface. The trainer says he's had a special custom bar-shoe made for him, he's recovered quickly from a quarter crack before, and he's been doing great, and he's confident he'll be able to run well. Personally I'm about as impressed by that kind of statement as an owner's assertion that he fed him a carrot yesterday and he had four legs and a tail attached while eating it.
Your money, your choice.
Normal horseshoe:
Examples of bar-shoes:
There are things that can be done to sometimes allow some horses to run on some quarter cracks, including "bar shoes" that help hold the hoof together. In less publicized events, showing up with bar shoes and the like is the usual way of discovering that someone is trying to run on a quarter crack. I understand he's been staying in shape mostly by swimming, with some light work on a synthetic surface. The trainer says he's had a special custom bar-shoe made for him, he's recovered quickly from a quarter crack before, and he's been doing great, and he's confident he'll be able to run well. Personally I'm about as impressed by that kind of statement as an owner's assertion that he fed him a carrot yesterday and he had four legs and a tail attached while eating it.
Your money, your choice.
Normal horseshoe:
Examples of bar-shoes:
Suck dope, watch TV, make up stuff, be somebody on the internet.
May 3rd, 2017 at 6:21:16 PM
permalink
Quote: speedycrapClassic Empire looks like a very good SHOW bet.
He is the one horse that is difficult to knock. I gave him little shot in the Arkansas Derby but he ran big. He is the classiest and most accomplished runner in the race. I guess one could make this argument: he had to run big @ Oaklawn to get points to make the Derby. Maybe he will bounce with only 3 weeks between races?
He is the logical favorite.
Quote: lilredroosterAlways Dreaming is very inexperienced but very interesting. I'm not saying he will win. But he definitely looks like he has potential. Some horses are not going to like the stampede of 20 horses. And some are going to think it's fun. Impossible to predict this.
Reports have been coming out about his rambunctiousness at Churchill. He has been so amped up they have used special reins (see photo) to calm and settle him down. Some will argue this means he is really cranked up to run a big one. While others will argue he is inexperienced and vulnerable to washing out or bolting on Derby day.
Quote: DrawingDeadGirvin will be running on a quarter crack, assuming he goes to post Saturday.
-snip-
Here is a picture similar to the shoe he has been wearing:
Girvin's trainer (J Sharp) had been reluctant to disclose the hoof issue information in the last few weeks. I personally thought Girvin might be scratched. Girvin has been swimming and he had a very good last workout (and follow-up cool down) at Keeneland. All systems are go according to the trainer at the moment. He does have a good post (#7) and jockey (M Smith). One last thought about Girvin's foot issue...
American Pharoah had a bruised hoof (frog) and missed the Breeder's Cup Juvenile. He did race with a bar shoe in the Arkansas Derby and Kentucky Derby after the injury.
I actually agree with what DD has posted. The foot issue combined with 2 OK dirt Stakes wins @ Fairgrounds over iffy fields does not scream "Derby Winner" IMO. He is a toss out for me.
May 3rd, 2017 at 8:31:02 PM
permalink
My guess for the "Wiseguy play" is going to be Hence (15/1 morning line). His Sunland Derby victory continues to be a "key" 3 year old race.
Sunland Derby:
Hence won.
Conquest Mo Money ran 2nd and then finished 2nd in the OAK Arkansas Derby.
Hedge Fund finished 3rd and has since finished 2nd in the HAW Illinois Derby.
Irap ran 4th and then came back to win the KEE Bluegrass Stakes.
Hence ran 2nd (by a neck) in a mile maiden event over the Churchill Downs main track last fall. He has completed 4 very good works (including one bullet) at Churchill Downs since the Sunland Derby. His trainer (S. Asmussen) continues to beam about his energy and the quality of his works. He received an excellent post position (#8) and a new rider (F Geroux). Cons would be a new rider for the Derby, last race was 6 weeks before Derby, and his closing style can result in traffic issues.
Any other Wiseguy derby chatter out there?
May 3rd, 2017 at 8:38:35 PM
permalink
Quote: Keeneone
My guess for the "Wiseguy play" is going to be Hence (15/1 morning line). His Sunland Derby victory continues to be a "key" 3 year old race.
Sunland Derby:
Hence won.
Conquest Mo Money ran 2nd and then finished 2nd in the OAK Arkansas Derby.
Hedge Fund finished 3rd and has since finished 2nd in the HAW Illinois Derby.
Irap ran 4th and then came back to win the KEE Bluegrass Stakes.
Hence ran 2nd (by a neck) in a mile maiden event over the Churchill Downs main track last fall. He has completed 4 very good works (including one bullet) at Churchill Downs since the Sunland Derby. His trainer (S. Asmussen) continues to beam about his energy and the quality of his works. He received an excellent post position (#8) and a new rider (F Geroux). Cons would be a new rider for the Derby, last race was 6 weeks before Derby, and his closing style can result in traffic issues.
Any other Wiseguy derby chatter out there?
When did horses start to be tagged with ads like NASCAR racers? What a revoltin' development.
If the House lost every hand, they wouldn't deal the game.
May 3rd, 2017 at 9:19:49 PM
permalink
Quote: beachbumbabs
When did horses start to be tagged with ads like NASCAR racers? What a revoltin' development.
Yum brands is the Corporate sponsor of the KD.
From this article:
https://www.kentuckyderby.com/horses/news/kentucky-derby,-oaks-workouts-to-be-streamed-live-on-twitter;-exclusive-830-845-a.m.-training-window-begins-saturday
"Training hours at Churchill Downs will be 5:45-10 a.m. daily through May 4 with an 8-8:30 a.m. break to renovate the racetrack. A special 15-minute session from 8:30-8:45 a.m. is exclusive to Kentucky Derby and Kentucky Oaks participants and any workmates. The specially-made Derby and Oaks saddle towels must be worn to gain access to the racetrack during that window."
May 3rd, 2017 at 9:28:54 PM
permalink
Quote: beachbumbabsWhen did horses start to be tagged with ads like NASCAR racers? What a revoltin' development.
Everything is a commercial racket these days....
"And that's what Christmas is all about Charlie Brown."
DUHHIIIIIIIII HEARD THAT!
May 3rd, 2017 at 11:55:50 PM
permalink
The rain forecast has messed me all up here. I have no idea how Always Dreaming will handle a sloppy track.
AD also has a potential post position problem. With Fast and Accurate going to the lead, and State of Honor heading out there too. AD will have to go out there with them (unless he wants to drop back, which I don't think is best).
If they squeeze him, like what happened to CE in the Arkansas Derby, his race is over right there IMO. I was looking at 2014 Derby, AD wants to do exactly what California Chrome did from the 5 spot, go to the lead then rate back IMO. I think JR Valezquez will be able to handle that, I just don't know if AD can handle the track conditions or not.
Hence broke his maiden on a sloppy track, so he looks like he can handle the weather. I don't know if he's as fast as CE and AD though.
Classic Empire also broke his maiden on a sloppy Churchill Downs track, but it was only a distance of 4 1/2 furlongs.
McCracken, and Irish War Cry also become interesting to me. Heck at 50-1 Fast and Accurate even becomes interesting.
Not very confident, CE looks the best to me, but waiting to see how the track looks Saturday.
Good Luck.
AD also has a potential post position problem. With Fast and Accurate going to the lead, and State of Honor heading out there too. AD will have to go out there with them (unless he wants to drop back, which I don't think is best).
If they squeeze him, like what happened to CE in the Arkansas Derby, his race is over right there IMO. I was looking at 2014 Derby, AD wants to do exactly what California Chrome did from the 5 spot, go to the lead then rate back IMO. I think JR Valezquez will be able to handle that, I just don't know if AD can handle the track conditions or not.
Hence broke his maiden on a sloppy track, so he looks like he can handle the weather. I don't know if he's as fast as CE and AD though.
Classic Empire also broke his maiden on a sloppy Churchill Downs track, but it was only a distance of 4 1/2 furlongs.
McCracken, and Irish War Cry also become interesting to me. Heck at 50-1 Fast and Accurate even becomes interesting.
Not very confident, CE looks the best to me, but waiting to see how the track looks Saturday.
Good Luck.
May 4th, 2017 at 3:03:20 AM
permalink
Here are the Tomlinson scores which some use to predict a horse's performance on a wet track. I've never used these. But I've heard others calling his projections brilliant. This is from turf writer Gene Kershner from Buffalonews.com. GLTA
This measure of a horse's ability on a wet track was the brainchild of Lee Tomlinson who studied past performances of a sample of horses based on how they performed on wet tracks and their pedigrees. A wet Tomlinson score ranges from 0 to 480 (a perfect score). Experts have noted that a score of 320 warrants consideration of a horse that should perform well on an off-track. Based on my annual Derby spreadsheet, the following horses have the top wet Tomlinson figures heading into the Derby:
PP Horse Wet ML
17 Irish War Cry 443 6-1
16 Tapwrit 441 20-1
15 McCraken 435 5-1
9 Irap 418 20-1
11 Battle of Midway 417 30-1
19 Practical Joke 413 20-1
AE21 Royal Mo 402 20-1
6 State of Honor 400 30-1
8 Hence 398 15-1
20 Patch 393 20-1
Two of the projected top five horses have wet Tomlinson figures that would suggest they will run well on an off track (Irish War Cry and McCraken). Two of Todd Pletcher's three entries also find themselves in the top 10 (Tapwrit and Patch).
This measure of a horse's ability on a wet track was the brainchild of Lee Tomlinson who studied past performances of a sample of horses based on how they performed on wet tracks and their pedigrees. A wet Tomlinson score ranges from 0 to 480 (a perfect score). Experts have noted that a score of 320 warrants consideration of a horse that should perform well on an off-track. Based on my annual Derby spreadsheet, the following horses have the top wet Tomlinson figures heading into the Derby:
PP Horse Wet ML
17 Irish War Cry 443 6-1
16 Tapwrit 441 20-1
15 McCraken 435 5-1
9 Irap 418 20-1
11 Battle of Midway 417 30-1
19 Practical Joke 413 20-1
AE21 Royal Mo 402 20-1
6 State of Honor 400 30-1
8 Hence 398 15-1
20 Patch 393 20-1
Two of the projected top five horses have wet Tomlinson figures that would suggest they will run well on an off track (Irish War Cry and McCraken). Two of Todd Pletcher's three entries also find themselves in the top 10 (Tapwrit and Patch).
Last edited by: lilredrooster on May 4, 2017
Please don't feed the trolls
May 4th, 2017 at 12:27:12 PM
permalink
Since I know there's that law that says I'm required to come up with an opinion on this...
I'm picturing a "sloppy-sealed" track. Which would not be the same as muddy or sticky and a drying-out "cuppy" surface at all. Very much an "off" track, but one that can often be particularly advantageous to having at least tactical speed. I keep coming back to Graham Motion's colt, Irish War Cry, with a weighted average winning distance from his sire (x2) + damsire (x1) of 7.3f, and at least "route" speed.
I don't do Tomlinson numbers, not because I'm against them at all for anyone who has found them useful, but I just don't know anything about the Tomlinson methodology and haven't got any history with them myself giving me any feel for how to use them sensibly.
>> RANT: And I believe those poor sad infantile souls stumbling drunkenly through the world without adult supervision (not folks in this particular thread, so far as I'm aware) who could ever think of doing things like imagining it might somehow be a great idea to bet real money blind simply based on some third party "picks" (rather than using them to learn how to find their own assets with both hands & give momma evidence she actually had a child that lived) or primarily because "Mr. Z says X" about a pony, mindlessly without the bother of getting any understanding of how that "Mr. Z" brews his "X" about a horsey, while lacking any interest in learning whatever game their money is playing in, is someone who urgently needs to be gelded so they can't breed. /END-RANT <<
But the wet-track data I use, which I think may have only very limited utility here for a possible sloppy-sealed surface, also has Irish War Cry at an above average B+ implied by the progeny of his sire/damsire. So I guess I'm officially about to be DrawingDead on Irish War Cry, without any great confidence.
So there you go, in the unlikely event anyone is foolish enough to care.
I'm picturing a "sloppy-sealed" track. Which would not be the same as muddy or sticky and a drying-out "cuppy" surface at all. Very much an "off" track, but one that can often be particularly advantageous to having at least tactical speed. I keep coming back to Graham Motion's colt, Irish War Cry, with a weighted average winning distance from his sire (x2) + damsire (x1) of 7.3f, and at least "route" speed.
I don't do Tomlinson numbers, not because I'm against them at all for anyone who has found them useful, but I just don't know anything about the Tomlinson methodology and haven't got any history with them myself giving me any feel for how to use them sensibly.
>> RANT: And I believe those poor sad infantile souls stumbling drunkenly through the world without adult supervision (not folks in this particular thread, so far as I'm aware) who could ever think of doing things like imagining it might somehow be a great idea to bet real money blind simply based on some third party "picks" (rather than using them to learn how to find their own assets with both hands & give momma evidence she actually had a child that lived) or primarily because "Mr. Z says X" about a pony, mindlessly without the bother of getting any understanding of how that "Mr. Z" brews his "X" about a horsey, while lacking any interest in learning whatever game their money is playing in, is someone who urgently needs to be gelded so they can't breed. /END-RANT <<
But the wet-track data I use, which I think may have only very limited utility here for a possible sloppy-sealed surface, also has Irish War Cry at an above average B+ implied by the progeny of his sire/damsire. So I guess I'm officially about to be DrawingDead on Irish War Cry, without any great confidence.
So there you go, in the unlikely event anyone is foolish enough to care.
Last edited by: DrawingDead on May 4, 2017
Suck dope, watch TV, make up stuff, be somebody on the internet.
May 4th, 2017 at 3:31:25 PM
permalink
So far 10 horses have already participated in a race over an "off" dirt surface.
#1 Lookin At Lee - Muddy track finished 2nd of 8 @ Churchill Downs.
#4 Untrapped - Muddy track finished 2nd of 11 @ Fairgrounds.
#8 Hence - Sloppy track finished 1st of 9 @ Oaklawn.
#9 Irap - Sloppy track finished 4th of 8 @ Santa Anita.
#10 Gunnevera - Sloppy track finished 2nd of 7 @ Gulfstream.
#11 Battle Of Midway - Wet Fast track finished 1st of 7 @ Santa Anita.
#12 Sonneteer - Good track finished 2nd of 7 @ Del Mar.
#14 Classic Empire - Sloppy track finished 1st of 8 @ Churchill Downs.
#16 Tapwrit - Sloppy track finished 1st of 7 @ Gulfstream.
#18 Gormley - Sloppy track finished 1st of 7 @ Santa Anita.
Most performed pretty well in the "off" going. The question (as already mentioned earlier in the thread) is how the others will perform if the track is not "fast" on race day. I think this is when some people will look at Tom #'s, pedigree, and mud percentages for some assistance. I will try and provide one Derby example:
Lets assume my 2 derby picks are McCraken and Always Dreaming (same morning line odds of 5/1). If the track is "fast" it is difficult to separate them. If the track comes up "off" McCraken becomes more appealing (after consulting the mud #s).
#1 Lookin At Lee - Muddy track finished 2nd of 8 @ Churchill Downs.
#4 Untrapped - Muddy track finished 2nd of 11 @ Fairgrounds.
#8 Hence - Sloppy track finished 1st of 9 @ Oaklawn.
#9 Irap - Sloppy track finished 4th of 8 @ Santa Anita.
#10 Gunnevera - Sloppy track finished 2nd of 7 @ Gulfstream.
#11 Battle Of Midway - Wet Fast track finished 1st of 7 @ Santa Anita.
#12 Sonneteer - Good track finished 2nd of 7 @ Del Mar.
#14 Classic Empire - Sloppy track finished 1st of 8 @ Churchill Downs.
#16 Tapwrit - Sloppy track finished 1st of 7 @ Gulfstream.
#18 Gormley - Sloppy track finished 1st of 7 @ Santa Anita.
Most performed pretty well in the "off" going. The question (as already mentioned earlier in the thread) is how the others will perform if the track is not "fast" on race day. I think this is when some people will look at Tom #'s, pedigree, and mud percentages for some assistance. I will try and provide one Derby example:
Lets assume my 2 derby picks are McCraken and Always Dreaming (same morning line odds of 5/1). If the track is "fast" it is difficult to separate them. If the track comes up "off" McCraken becomes more appealing (after consulting the mud #s).
May 4th, 2017 at 3:50:32 PM
permalink
$50WPS on Hence(8). $20 EX Hence with Classic Empire. $5 Classic Empire with Hence. $5 Hence with ?.
Does it sound good? Any other suggestion?
Does it sound good? Any other suggestion?
May 4th, 2017 at 4:17:51 PM
permalink
Tri 8 14 with 8 14 with 1 2 10 15
Super 8 14 with 8 14 with 1 2 10 15 with 1 2 10 15.
?????
Super 8 14 with 8 14 with 1 2 10 15 with 1 2 10 15.
?????
May 4th, 2017 at 4:48:01 PM
permalink
KEE1, leaving aside the difficulty I think you've mentioned yourself before, maybe last year in one of these threads, about wrongly assuming "this-mud" = "that-mud" = "other-mud" = "anything-wet" the reasoning in that decision tree seems perfectly sensible to me, or it would, if I thought I had some idea of what is being measured by the numerical output of a Tomlinson rating... which I don't. Some of the questions I'd want to be digging into, if I was looking into using that or adopting some other similar one for myself, would include:
I don't know the answers to any of these and other things cooked into the three digit "Wet" number published in the Form, so that's why that line in the corner of the DRF's (and some others') PPs remains a random ink blot for me. This has probably been the most difficult problem for me in the pedigree data that I do routinely use, mostly to good effect, but giving me a poor read on some newer sires, such as Pioneer of the Nile recently.
EDIT: The last sentence above ("This has probably been the most difficult...") belonged at the end of the last paragraph, but didn't stay where I told it to when I posted. Corrected.
- Is it attempting to quantify the extensive data on the collective performance of the progeny of a sire, or trying to use the race performances of the sire itself? I've found that in time, the progeny can provide significant data with a useful degree of predictive value for some purposes. Maybe more so for other things than this, but still a significant accumulation of data. But if instead of that, one is attempting to extrapolate traits directly from the actual race record of a sire, that will almost always end up being very flaky, based in large part on radically insufficient data, and also multiple factors in his individual life and unique race career that are not inheritable.
-
Does it include data from the female line, and if so, how? Obviously, the dam provides half the genetic material for creation of the foal, so including it is essential, though sometimes foolishly ignored by some who look at pedigrees. But a mare will never produce enough foals in her lifetime to make the performance of her progeny a useful metric at all. So does he then go to the sire of the dam, and if so how does he weight the data to account for the weaker effect of that damsire (and traits tending to be passed to his progeny) being an additional generation removed from the creation of this foal?
-
Then, and only then, assuming I've concluded the foregoing methodology may be sound for a given rating system, I start to get to the point of what type of progeny performance is made relevant, how much, under what circumstances. Simple win percent? Or otherwise further quantifying relatively "good" or "poor" performances? With any adjustment for competition class level and field size?
- What, if anything, is done to account for the difference between established sires with extensive progeny data versus younger sires with much more limited data that also tend to be bred to a very different kind of mare during the first several years their stud services are put on the market?
I don't know the answers to any of these and other things cooked into the three digit "Wet" number published in the Form, so that's why that line in the corner of the DRF's (and some others') PPs remains a random ink blot for me. This has probably been the most difficult problem for me in the pedigree data that I do routinely use, mostly to good effect, but giving me a poor read on some newer sires, such as Pioneer of the Nile recently.
EDIT: The last sentence above ("This has probably been the most difficult...") belonged at the end of the last paragraph, but didn't stay where I told it to when I posted. Corrected.
Quote: KeeneoneSo far 10 horses have already participated in a race over an "off" dirt surface.
#1 Lookin At Lee - Muddy track finished 2nd of 8 @ Churchill Downs.
#4 Untrapped - Muddy track finished 2nd of 11 @ Fairgrounds.
#8 Hence - Sloppy track finished 1st of 9 @ Oaklawn.
#9 Irap - Sloppy track finished 4th of 8 @ Santa Anita.
#10 Gunnevera - Sloppy track finished 2nd of 7 @ Gulfstream.
#11 Battle Of Midway - Wet Fast track finished 1st of 7 @ Santa Anita.
#12 Sonneteer - Good track finished 2nd of 7 @ Del Mar.
#14 Classic Empire - Sloppy track finished 1st of 8 @ Churchill Downs.
#16 Tapwrit - Sloppy track finished 1st of 7 @ Gulfstream.
#18 Gormley - Sloppy track finished 1st of 7 @ Santa Anita.
Most performed pretty well in the "off" going. The question (as already mentioned earlier in the thread) is how the others will perform if the track is not "fast" on race day. I think this is when some people will look at Tom #'s, pedigree, and mud percentages for some assistance. I will try and provide one Derby example:
Lets assume my 2 derby picks are McCraken and Always Dreaming (same morning line odds of 5/1). If the track is "fast" it is difficult to separate them. If the track comes up "off" McCraken becomes more appealing (after consulting the mud #s).
Last edited by: DrawingDead on May 4, 2017
Suck dope, watch TV, make up stuff, be somebody on the internet.
May 4th, 2017 at 6:58:45 PM
permalink
On a rainy day, bet the grey...
#3 Fast And Accurate
#16 Tapwrit
----------
The "off" track weather predictions has me rethinking the pace of the race. Jockeys/owners may look to be "in the clear" (and avoid kickback) by pushing/asking those with tactical speed early. This could enhance the pace of the race. Maybe IWCry/Battle Of Midway will look for the lead. Always Dreaming could also make a run for the front. Honest question:
Just how fast is Always Dreaming and could he make the lead in the Derby?
#3 Fast And Accurate
#16 Tapwrit
----------
The "off" track weather predictions has me rethinking the pace of the race. Jockeys/owners may look to be "in the clear" (and avoid kickback) by pushing/asking those with tactical speed early. This could enhance the pace of the race. Maybe IWCry/Battle Of Midway will look for the lead. Always Dreaming could also make a run for the front. Honest question:
Just how fast is Always Dreaming and could he make the lead in the Derby?
May 4th, 2017 at 9:10:15 PM
permalink
That's been a problem to me every year for the last several KY Derbys, and I think it is a major change from past editions of the same event. For decades, when qualifying was simply by total graded stakes earnings, there would generally be several in the gate that could absolutely be counted on to be going at it eyeball to eyeball setting a very hot pace for the distance for six, seven, eight furlongs before those who might truly belong in a mile and a quarter Grade 1 took over. But in recent years the pace has been a muddle to me. I think the biggest reason for the change, which I don't care for at all, might be Churchill's decision to cook up their very own heavy handed restrictive points qualifying system, eliminating many precocious "fast as I can far as I can" type colts (along with probably all fillies) who might otherwise have taken a shot, and given their owners a thrill for about a minute and a half of a two minute race.Quote: Keeneone...the pace of the race...
Cliffs Notes: Harrumph.
Suck dope, watch TV, make up stuff, be somebody on the internet.
May 4th, 2017 at 9:27:19 PM
permalink
Not that anyone asked for or should really care... My picks:
Kentucky Oaks(Fri): #12 - Daddys Lil Darling, #13 - Abel Tasman
Woodford Reserve Turf Classic (Sat): #8 - Beach Patrol, #11 - Can'thelpbelieving
Kentucky Derby(Sat): #1 - Lookin At Lee, #4 - Untrapped, #8 - Hence, #15 - McCraken, (#21 - Royal Mo)
-Lookin At Lee/Hence/Untrapped (the all Asmussen trio) are the Derby runners I have with live Futures bets. I also have Royal Mo, but he is not in the race at the moment. GLTA.
Kentucky Oaks(Fri): #12 - Daddys Lil Darling, #13 - Abel Tasman
Woodford Reserve Turf Classic (Sat): #8 - Beach Patrol, #11 - Can'thelpbelieving
Kentucky Derby(Sat): #1 - Lookin At Lee, #4 - Untrapped, #8 - Hence, #15 - McCraken, (#21 - Royal Mo)
-Lookin At Lee/Hence/Untrapped (the all Asmussen trio) are the Derby runners I have with live Futures bets. I also have Royal Mo, but he is not in the race at the moment. GLTA.
May 4th, 2017 at 9:47:32 PM
permalink
Quote: DrawingDeadThat's been a problem to me every year for the last several KY Derbys, and I think it is a major change from past editions of the same event. For decades, when qualifying was simply by total graded stakes earnings, there would generally be several in the gate that could absolutely be counted on to be going at it eyeball to eyeball setting a very hot pace for the distance for six, seven, eight furlongs before those who might truly belong in a mile and a quarter Grade 1 took over. But in recent years the pace has been a muddle to me. I think the biggest reason for the change, which I don't care for at all, might be Churchill's decision to cook up their very own heavy handed restrictive points qualifying system, eliminating many precocious "fast as I can far as I can" type colts (along with probably all fillies) who might otherwise have taken a shot, and given their owners a thrill for about a minute and a half of a two minute race.
Cliffs Notes: Harrumph.
I agree completely. The Trinniberg effect. In 2012 he pressured Bodemeister (who ran an incredible race to finish 2nd) and open the door for I'll Have Another.
The points earning change also has me believing a good fast horse (under the right conditions like an "off" track) could wire a Derby field in the near future. Possible plays to pull this off in 2017: IWC or BOM.
May 5th, 2017 at 2:18:13 AM
permalink
In this 1998 article by Beyer in the Washington Post he gives some explanation as to how the Tomlinson figures are made. It's not a complete explanation but it might be helpful. As to your question, Dead, about the use of stats from the Dam, this is directly from the article:
"Of course, every thoroughbred has two parents whose genes determine his ability, but there usually aren't enough data about a dam's offspring to draw meaningful conclusions. So Kaufman recommends this expedient: To calculate a horse's Tomlinson number, add his sire's rating to 50 percent of his maternal grandsire's rating. If a horse entered on a muddy track is by Waquoit out of a dam who is a daughter of Caveat (mud rating: 200), he gets 250 points from his sire and 100 from his female side for a total of 350. The ratings are supposed to predict the performance of horses with little or no grass or turf form. Once a horse has raced on a surface several times, of course, his record speaks for itself."
https://www.washingtonpost.com/archive/sports/1998/12/05/a-clearer-picture-in-the-mud-or-on-the-turf/2b907a6c-9817-4d20-be8b-96a43feabdcc/?utm_term=.6f3933c4bedf
"Of course, every thoroughbred has two parents whose genes determine his ability, but there usually aren't enough data about a dam's offspring to draw meaningful conclusions. So Kaufman recommends this expedient: To calculate a horse's Tomlinson number, add his sire's rating to 50 percent of his maternal grandsire's rating. If a horse entered on a muddy track is by Waquoit out of a dam who is a daughter of Caveat (mud rating: 200), he gets 250 points from his sire and 100 from his female side for a total of 350. The ratings are supposed to predict the performance of horses with little or no grass or turf form. Once a horse has raced on a surface several times, of course, his record speaks for itself."
https://www.washingtonpost.com/archive/sports/1998/12/05/a-clearer-picture-in-the-mud-or-on-the-turf/2b907a6c-9817-4d20-be8b-96a43feabdcc/?utm_term=.6f3933c4bedf
Please don't feed the trolls
May 5th, 2017 at 3:31:41 AM
permalink
Quote: KeeneoneAlways Dreaming could also make a run for the front. Honest question:
Just how fast is Always Dreaming and could he make the lead in the Derby?
That's a good question. As the old adage goes, "that's why the run the race".
They have things they can do besides heading for the lead, and the one thing I'm sure of is that Pletcher and Valazquez know way more then I do about where to place this horse, and I'm sure they will have that all worked out by Saturday. I won't be cursing out the jockey, whatever he decides to do.
I personally like to see this situation handled by going to the lead, rating back and dictating the race by placing yourself where you want to be. That, of course, can't be done with every horse -- not enough power from the gate, can't rate that well, in this case perhaps the mud, etc. etc. But, all things being equal, I'd prefer wasting the energy to gain the position you want, rather than having the race dictated to you. This all being for an E/P type horses, of course.
Looking at it again, you may be right, Keenone, AD may not have the power from the gate to get the lead. With Valazquez and Pletcher, I'm not too worried about them handling the situation, though, it's the mud I'm worried about. AD, is not going to get the ideal trip, whatever they decide to do, but the only real disaster would be to get squezzed, and have to check the horse while 15 other horses are coming down on you. IMO. Maybe, another good reason to not go for the lead.
Actually, reminds me of Rosie Napravnik, you didn't have to worry about jockey mistakes if she was riding. :)
Starting to get excited for Saturday. GLTA.
May 5th, 2017 at 7:47:53 PM
permalink
Not suggesting anyone follow my lead but I threw $20 across the board on Thunder Snow. I think he is as good as most in a field that doesn't impress me.
At 20-1, why not.
At 20-1, why not.
The difference between fiction and reality is that fiction is supposed to make sense.
May 5th, 2017 at 10:43:59 PM
permalink
Quote: JyBrd0403That's a good question. As the old adage goes, "that's why the run the race".
-snip-
Good stuff JyBrd0403, run the race and lets see what happens...
I wanted to like Always Dreaming but I am not sure he is fast enough. That thought combined with a wet track and I started looking elsewhere.
----------
In the Oaks/Derby Double, Irish War Cry is the lowest payout (ie. the favorite).
May 6th, 2017 at 1:02:38 AM
permalink
Right now, as I'm writing at 4 a.m. EST the forecast I saw for Louisville is for rain only between 10a.m. and 1p.m. If this is accurate the track will probably be pretty dry at 6:46 EST when the Derby goes off.
Please don't feed the trolls
May 6th, 2017 at 5:22:23 AM
permalink
Quote: KeeneoneNot that anyone asked for or should really care... My picks:
Kentucky Oaks(Fri): #12 - Daddys Lil Darling, #13 - Abel Tasman
I was looking through the posts here. GREAT CALL on the Kentucky Oaks race, Keeneone! Well done!
I took Paradise Woods ...umm...err...umm...yeah.
May 6th, 2017 at 5:37:18 AM
permalink
The race proceeding the Derbyshire is on the grass. That, combined with the unusual gap in between races on Derby Day means the crew will have close to two hours to work on what is one of the quickest drying tracks. Should be a solid track at post time.
The difference between fiction and reality is that fiction is supposed to make sense.
May 6th, 2017 at 7:23:22 AM
permalink
Quote: JyBrd0403I was looking through the posts here. GREAT CALL on the Kentucky Oaks race, Keeneone! Well done!
I took Paradise Woods ...umm...err...umm...yeah.
Thank you.
----------
This is the fun way to handicap the Derby...
McCracken is the pick!
May 6th, 2017 at 9:08:42 AM
permalink
I'm going to make a $10 win bet on Gunnevera, tri box $.50($12) Gunnevera, Hence, Irish War Cry and Thunder Snow, might go cheap kicking out either Irish War Cry or Thunder Snow. Not expecting I'll win, so take it with a grain of salt.
Might do 10,17/1,2,8,10,17/1,2,8,10,17? $12 bet also but out if 2,8 wins. Will probably bet this ticket.
Might do 10,17/1,2,8,10,17/1,2,8,10,17? $12 bet also but out if 2,8 wins. Will probably bet this ticket.
Last edited by: onenickelmiracle on May 6, 2017
I am a robot.
May 6th, 2017 at 1:33:32 PM
permalink
$8 win Gunnevera, $.50 trifecta 10/1,2,4,8,17/1,2,4,8,17 was the bet I sat on for $10.
I am a robot.
May 6th, 2017 at 1:45:13 PM
permalink
Forgive my ignorance, but are casinos part of the larger pari-mutual field or do they stand alone?
Does a last minute $5 million dollar bet in NY affect the odds in Vegas? Does a bet at the Hilton affect odds at SP?
Does a last minute $5 million dollar bet in NY affect the odds in Vegas? Does a bet at the Hilton affect odds at SP?
The difference between fiction and reality is that fiction is supposed to make sense.
May 6th, 2017 at 2:05:34 PM
permalink
All one pool, that's why you see the same odds everywhere.Quote: billryanForgive my ignorance, but are casinos part of the larger pari-mutual field or do they stand alone?
Does a last minute $5 million dollar bet in NY affect the odds in Vegas? Does a bet at the Hilton affect odds at SP?
I am a robot.
May 6th, 2017 at 2:36:42 PM
permalink
Yes, mostly no except sometimes yes, yes, and yes.Quote: billryanForgive my ignorance, but are casinos part of the larger pari-mutual field or do they stand alone?
Does a last minute $5 million dollar bet in NY affect the odds in Vegas? Does a bet at the Hilton affect odds at SP?
Nevada racebook wagers are transmitted directly into the host track parimutual pools, and payouts come from those pools and are determined by them, The casino books act as an off-site agent under a statewide master contract in processing those wagers. They are very much like other off-track betting contractors nationwide in that way, and the effect is just like someone sitting at Los Alamitos in California or at home in Buffalo with a NYRA telephone account, betting races at Churchill or Gulfstream.
There some exceptions to that, outside of the statewide contracts with the tracks, that are unique to Nevada books. For example separately from the Churchill Downs parimutual Derby future wager pools that are opened several times, there are fixed odds future wagers available from some books for some horseracing related things, including the future winner of the Derby, the Oaks, and some Breeders' Cup events, yes/no on whether there will be a Triple Crown winner, etc. And some casino books also offer a variety of their own prop wager gimmicks. These things are booked in-house, and are treated as sports wagers just like a prop on "who will be the Super Bowl MVP" and suchlike or the o/u line on how many games the Enormous State University Fighting Gerbils will lose. But those things amount to only a very small fraction of the much bigger wagering volume of their large share of participation in the same parimutual pools as every other licensed parimutual wagering outlet across the nation.
Suck dope, watch TV, make up stuff, be somebody on the internet.
May 6th, 2017 at 2:38:36 PM
permalink
Quote: onenickelmiracleAll one pool, that's why you see the same odds everywhere.
You see the same line on most NFL games, but each casino stands alone, or is part of a small group. Its certainly not one pool. What does South Point, as an example, make off a $5 bet? I just don't get the economics of having huge casino space devoted to sports and horse betting when a dozen kiosks could do the job.
The difference between fiction and reality is that fiction is supposed to make sense.
May 6th, 2017 at 2:41:31 PM
permalink
IN NY, as an example, the OTBs don't do field bets( or didn't in the past) so there have been big races where the winner paid one price at the track and another at OTB.
One race produced a rather small track price but $100 price in NY.
One race produced a rather small track price but $100 price in NY.
The difference between fiction and reality is that fiction is supposed to make sense.
May 6th, 2017 at 3:00:53 PM
permalink
A few kiosks could do the job of the pit, too.
Sports betting doesn't make squat for most casinos, and is generally a net loser when all the overhead is fully accounted for. In most casinos it is there mostly as an amenity attracting business for the overall casino/resort enterprise, like putting on several times daily small buy-in fast poker tournaments, or providing beverage service, or piano players in the lobby and fountains and pirate shows. Though beware: Many of the more serious sports bettors will get seriously pissed-off at the mention of this and refuse to believe that they are not VERRRRRY important, and angrily insist that they "know" that casinos are deathly afraid that they will bankrupt the joint with their brilliance.
Parimutual wagering handle is much larger, carries zero risk to the house as the neutral facilitator of the transactions among bettors wagering against each other, and therefore more than pays to keep the lights on for the entire overhead of the entire book operation in many casinos with the better book operations. A big share of that dollar volume is in fact being handled through the functional equivalent of "kiosks" rather than through live casino employees that are visible standing around at windows punching out tickets, but you will not see this or likely be aware of it and the volume it does if you are not participating in it.
Sports betting doesn't make squat for most casinos, and is generally a net loser when all the overhead is fully accounted for. In most casinos it is there mostly as an amenity attracting business for the overall casino/resort enterprise, like putting on several times daily small buy-in fast poker tournaments, or providing beverage service, or piano players in the lobby and fountains and pirate shows. Though beware: Many of the more serious sports bettors will get seriously pissed-off at the mention of this and refuse to believe that they are not VERRRRRY important, and angrily insist that they "know" that casinos are deathly afraid that they will bankrupt the joint with their brilliance.
Parimutual wagering handle is much larger, carries zero risk to the house as the neutral facilitator of the transactions among bettors wagering against each other, and therefore more than pays to keep the lights on for the entire overhead of the entire book operation in many casinos with the better book operations. A big share of that dollar volume is in fact being handled through the functional equivalent of "kiosks" rather than through live casino employees that are visible standing around at windows punching out tickets, but you will not see this or likely be aware of it and the volume it does if you are not participating in it.
Suck dope, watch TV, make up stuff, be somebody on the internet.
May 6th, 2017 at 3:52:12 PM
permalink
When? In this decade? Apparently in one of the *ahem* highly "unique" NY OTBs that were an artifact from the 1970s, started before the widespread existence of national simulcast wagering, created in an era before modern data technology and the consequent creation of co-mingled pools running through national hubs, and the federal law that now governs them. My understanding is that the last of those infamously bizarre sleazy New York OTBs trying to operate in their own *cough*cough* "different" way were shut down years ago, and have not existed since they were closed on December 8, 2010.Quote: billryanIN NY, as an example, the OTBs don't do field bets( or didn't in the past) so there have been big races where the winner paid one price at the track and another at OTB.
One race produced a rather small track price but $100 price in NY.
Something like what you describe could and sometimes did occur in some Nevada books, operating under very different circumstances, a long time ago. In the 1960s, 70s, and I think into the early 80s.
Does not happen in recent years. Can't. Unless you are in the back room of the Bada-Bing booking wagers with a guy named Silvio. In this century, Nevada books briefly booked their own wagers when there was a dispute in negotiations with LVDC (Las Vegas Dissemination Company) that caused a two day lapse in their contract with some tracks. For exactly one day, major NV books were not in the parimutual pools, but by their own (very sensible) chioice paid wagers at exactly the same amount as the track's parimutual payouts anyway. If anyone outside of Nevada did this today, trying to ignore the revisions to the federal Interstate Horseracing and Wagering Act related to national simulcast wagering that apply, they'd be getting into operating a sportsbook outside of the only state where such can be licensed to legally exist, and they'd be getting to know their FBI field office and eventually the staff of a federal prison.
Suck dope, watch TV, make up stuff, be somebody on the internet.
May 6th, 2017 at 4:02:46 PM
permalink
I didn't like the race at all. Billryan, Thundersnow really must have broke your heart seeing him limping from the start. Me personally, damn the favorites and how dare my favorite exacta 5/1 hit.
I am a robot.
May 6th, 2017 at 4:17:41 PM
permalink
Congrats to AD and anyone who won with him. The favorite wins again. How can the public be so smart? I will settle for another second place with my Derby futures for 2017. On to 2018...
----------
I just think Thunder Snow was rank, basically refused to run, and started bucking his rider. The jockey likely would have jumped off if he thought an injury occurred.
----------
Quote: onenickelmiracleI didn't like the race at all. Billryan, Thundersnow really must have broke your heart seeing him limping from the start. Me personally, damn the favorites and how dare my favorite exacta 5/1 hit.
I just think Thunder Snow was rank, basically refused to run, and started bucking his rider. The jockey likely would have jumped off if he thought an injury occurred.
May 6th, 2017 at 4:23:04 PM
permalink
Some of the firstest fastest remarks on the race I've heard seem to be saying that, besides Thunder Snow's problems, Classic Empire just had a trip where he got mugged in an alley, and robbed on the subway, then run over by a taxi, and lost all chance. Didn't catch the rough racing luck incident(s) they're chatting about myself. Did those here focusing on that one see it like that?
It appeared to me that my little flea-wager guess-horse IWC was in fine position to take over headed for the real test in the stretch, but what he had was largely used to that point & simply didn't have it to give when called upon.
It appeared to me that my little flea-wager guess-horse IWC was in fine position to take over headed for the real test in the stretch, but what he had was largely used to that point & simply didn't have it to give when called upon.
Suck dope, watch TV, make up stuff, be somebody on the internet.
May 6th, 2017 at 4:26:25 PM
permalink
I saw the replay on NBC, looked like pinball.Quote: DrawingDeadSome of the firstest fastest remarks on the race I've heard seem to be saying that, besides Thunder Snow's problems, Classic Empire just had a trip where he got mugged in an alley, and robbed on the subway, then run over by a taxi, and lost all chance. Didn't catch the rough racing luck incident(s) they're chatting about myself. Did those here focusing on that one see it like that?
I am a robot.
May 6th, 2017 at 4:28:00 PM
permalink
The only example I can think of by name is Cannonero11, who was in the Derby field but was a long shot at OTB. There were more recent ones but I'm drawing a blank.
It used to be that NY OTB only allowed an entree if the horse had the same owner and trainer so those horses would have different odds than at the track.
NYC OTB shut down, not NY OTB. In fact, Nassau and Suffolk are in the process of opening slot parlors( VLMs).
I lost interest in horse betting the year War Emblem won. I did attend a number of Belmont Stakes when the Triple Crown was on the line.
Made nice money off American Pharaoh. Bought 50 $2 tickets and sold them on eBay for around $15 that week.
It used to be that NY OTB only allowed an entree if the horse had the same owner and trainer so those horses would have different odds than at the track.
NYC OTB shut down, not NY OTB. In fact, Nassau and Suffolk are in the process of opening slot parlors( VLMs).
I lost interest in horse betting the year War Emblem won. I did attend a number of Belmont Stakes when the Triple Crown was on the line.
Made nice money off American Pharaoh. Bought 50 $2 tickets and sold them on eBay for around $15 that week.
The difference between fiction and reality is that fiction is supposed to make sense.
May 6th, 2017 at 4:42:17 PM
permalink
It was NYC OTB that I was thinking of in those comments. Never did have any experience or knowledge of the operation of different NY State OTBs distinct from NYC's. I'm not up to date at all on the status of intra-state New York parlors. Though I am very familiar with the national inter-state simulcast wagering, on both sides of the "counter" so to speak, which is conducted through a few licensed national hubs.
There's more New York somewhere past Bronx & Yonkers?
There's more New York somewhere past Bronx & Yonkers?
EDIT for an addendum: In the first couple of years that widespread simulcast wagering was really getting established, and the legal environment and contractural landscape for it was still in flux to some degree, I was able to establish out of state parimutual wagering accounts with the California tracks in their first version of creating internet access to their parimutual pools, and also an account from the USA with Woodbine in Canada which then had a separate parimutual pool for Canook parimutual wagering on Santa Anita and Hollywood Park's races. Creating some VERY interesting opportunities for arbitrage between the significantly different wagering paterns and resulting payouts. For a while. For those who caught on to that peculiar situation early enough to milk it in the bigger and therefore more liquid events. The lifespan of that particular "while" wasn't a real long one, I think maybe about 18 months or so, IIRC. Sigh.Quote: billryanThe only example I can think of by name is Cannonero11, who was in the Derby field but was a long shot at OTB. There were more recent ones but I'm drawing a blank.
It used to be that NY OTB only allowed an entree if the horse had the same owner and trainer so those horses would have different odds than at the track.
NYC OTB shut down, not NY OTB. In fact, Nassau and Suffolk are in the process of opening slot parlors( VLMs).
I lost interest in horse betting the year War Emblem won. I did attend a number of Belmont Stakes when the Triple Crown was on the line.
Made nice money off American Pharaoh. Bought 50 $2 tickets and sold them on eBay for around $15 that week.
Last edited by: DrawingDead on May 6, 2017
Suck dope, watch TV, make up stuff, be somebody on the internet.
May 6th, 2017 at 4:55:29 PM
permalink
Watching TVG now after the derby, noticeable depression, much relaxed enthusiasm from the hosts.
I am a robot.
May 6th, 2017 at 4:58:54 PM
permalink
Maybe next year, favorite/all/all.
I am a robot.
