lilredrooster
lilredrooster
Joined: May 8, 2015
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Thanks for this post from:
onenickelmiracle
May 20th, 2017 at 1:26:20 AM permalink
onenickelmiracle

How do these payoffs translate from to win odds? If Always Dreaming was 4/5, Gunnevera 15/1, realize it's pari-mutuel based, but the payoffs are not 19 times difference, the holds on doubles are more, seems off though.



the daily double payouts are often way off from what the actual (1st race) and morning line odds (2nd race) imply that they should be. the daily double IMO represents the best chance, far better than the exacta payouts, to try to get a purely mathematical edge at the track. i haven't followed it closely so i'm not sure now but when i did follow it it used to be difficult because the approximate payouts were not always there on the screens to see. maybe they are now i'm not sure. this kind of strategy is not for me but i can't knock it. this is one way to find a good bet in the double from somebody's blog. THE CALCULATION THEY MAKE IGNORES THE TRACK TAKEOUT ON THE WIN BETS PAYOUT SO IT IS NOT AS GREAT A BET AS IS IMPLIED. the calculation makes the assumption that the win pool is an efficient market and that the double pool is not. also, if this is going to be useful it will be useful at big tracks only because the estimated payouts are going to fluctuate wildly at small tracks and late betting will make it all but impossible to get an efficient bet down. and the big tracks offer much more efficient markets then the small tracks which will make finding an edge difficult. the best chance to find an edge will be where both races feature large fields which will increase variance. to summarize: this may be an occasionally useful strategy but there are many caveats to consider. but nonetheless it is a fair way to compare a double payout to win bets payouts:



"Double payoffs are, far more often than not, solid overlay wagers. We consider
the Double payoff to be an overlay if the payoff is higher than what you would
have received for a straight two race win bet parlay. For example, letís say the
winner of the first leg paid $10 to win and the winner of the second leg paid $8
to win. If you bet $2 on the winner of the first leg, you would receive a $10
payoff. In a parlay, you would then wager the $10 on the second race. If you bet
on the winner of the second race, you win the $8 payoff five times. Hence, the
parlay paid $40. If the Double combination on these two horses pays more than
$40, it is an overlay. If it pays $44, it is a 10% overlay. If it pays $50, it is a 25%
overlay."
Last edited by: lilredrooster on May 20, 2017
everybody wants to go to heaven. but nobody wants to die.
FinsRule
FinsRule
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Thanks for this post from:
onenickelmiracle
May 20th, 2017 at 4:27:08 AM permalink
The takeout on a double is more than a win, but less than a parlay would be. So a parlay should always pay worse than a double does.

To me, this means that Always Dreaming is going off at even money or 6/5, not 4/5. Classic Empire is going to be 2/1 or 5/2, not 3/1.

Gunnevera, Conquest, Lookin, Cloud Computing should all be closely bunched between 10/1 - 12/1.
lilredrooster
lilredrooster
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May 20th, 2017 at 5:22:55 AM permalink
Quote: FinsRule

The takeout on a double is more than a win, but less than a parlay would be.


less than a parlay but still huge. at churchill the takeout on the DD is 22%.
Last edited by: lilredrooster on May 20, 2017
everybody wants to go to heaven. but nobody wants to die.
FinsRule
FinsRule
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May 20th, 2017 at 6:40:01 AM permalink
22% is criminal. I'm guessing Pimlico is less.
lilredrooster
lilredrooster
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May 20th, 2017 at 7:09:25 AM permalink
Quote: FinsRule

22% is criminal. I'm guessing Pimlico is less.



you guessed right. only 21%.
everybody wants to go to heaven. but nobody wants to die.
onenickelmiracle
onenickelmiracle
Joined: Jan 26, 2012
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May 20th, 2017 at 10:08:19 AM permalink
Quote: Matt Bernier odds


1. Multiplier 24/1
2. Cloud Computing 6/1
3. Hence 24/1
4. Always Dreaming 5/2
5. Classic Empire 7/2
6. Gunnevera 13/1
7. Term of Art 49/1
8. Senior investment 49/1
9. Lookin at Lee 12/1
10. Conquest Mo Money 12/1


https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=UEmczczj0A0
Looks like sh!t just got imaginary!
billryan
billryan
Joined: Nov 2, 2009
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May 20th, 2017 at 1:15:54 PM permalink
Quote: lilredrooster

Here is the last verse to "Maryland my Maryland" which is sung just before the Preakness.

Maryland!
The Old Line's bugle, fife, and drum,
Maryland!
She is not dead, nor deaf, nor dumb-
Huzza! she spurns the NORTHERN SCUM!
She breathes! she burns! she'll come! she'll come!
Maryland! My Maryland!


sorry Yanks. No hard feelings.
anyway they omit singing that verse because of the controversy surrounding it.
love the 2nd to last line "She breathes! she burns! she'll come! she'll come!"

of course she'll come. Maryland boys know how to bada bada bing!




Seeing how Maryland never left the Union , that's a very curious verse.
It's what you do and not what you say If you're not part of the future then get out of the way
DrawingDead
DrawingDead
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May 20th, 2017 at 1:26:14 PM permalink
Yes, the tiny little rump of what's left of Pimlico pretending to put on a race meet, with a 12 day token schedule in order to hang on to the Preakness for the time being, has above average takeout rates overall to start with. And then generally the closer you get to the functional equivalent of buying lottery tickets, the less price-elastic the demand for them gets, and so with multi-race or multi-horse wagers the takeout generally gets higher as the number of events or entrants that must be selected increases. "Hey, if'n I hit dat sucker, I'll be stinkin' rich, so who cares? Gahmbooool, baby!"

But, there are anomalies here and there across the continent bucking that strong general propensity to be most price-conscious, with the lowest takeout rates, in the most straightforward wagering formats. For example, in the chart of takeout rates I have in front of me Sam Houston has a takeout of 12% on doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, and pick-5s, while having a high takeout of 18% up to 25% for less exotic wagers. Lone Star also has a strangely inverted, but different, scale of takeouts. Woodbine has a takeout on doubles of 15%, so on that they hold not much more than their sub-15% straight wager rate that also has lower "breakage" than many tracks. But they only do that for doubles while jacking it up to confiscatory rates for other multi-race wagers. The NYRA tracks are a little eccentric in having an exotic wager takeout of 15% only in their most massively multi-race options of pick-5 and pick-6, with higher rates for mere doubles and pick-3s. Of course everything connected with Churchill sucks eggs, as they shamelessly milk their control of their signature event. I'm waiting for those clowns to announce a resort fee for the standing-room crowd lining up to piss in the porta-potties in the infield on Derby weekend. And a Millinery Inspection Service Fee for the wearing of fruit salad buffets as headgear.

Quote: beachbumbabs

Amended title for you.

Thanks.

But on that other thing, I'm pretty sure you and that Santa Anita trifecta luckbox co-conspirator friend of yours with the impeccable dental hygiene in the gloating selfie at the '15 Breeders' Cup used up every last bit of your fair share of horsey luck, plus borrowing about another ten years worth. But good luck.

I am guaranteed to have results that "beat the rake" so to speak. Because I'm not betting in this thing in Baltimore. Me likey Belmont Park.
Last edited by: DrawingDead on May 20, 2017
Nevermind.
ronnief
ronnief
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May 20th, 2017 at 2:07:49 PM permalink
Looks straight om paper, but they run on the track Always Dreaming or Classic, nobody else figures to win. Coming on Lee to close for third. With odds should be CE,AD, COL in that order. Bet it straigt win exacta or Tri Screw all those combos Wht give the rake more than one bite if the apple Bet Win, Ex or Tri
DrawingDead
DrawingDead
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May 20th, 2017 at 2:19:54 PM permalink
Quote: billryan

Seeing how Maryland never left the Union , that's a very curious verse.

It just got curiouser and then downright odd when I Googled it. While it was sung as a battle cry by supporters of the Confederacy, the relatively innocuous (or perhaps just inscrutable) third verse of it is sung at the Preakness by the United States Naval Academy Glee Club. And the lyrics are set to the tune of "O Tannenbaum" of all things. So, avenge that vandal tyrant Lincoln, and Merry Christmas! Sir!
Nevermind.

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