Keeneone
Keeneone
Joined: Aug 16, 2014
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May 18th, 2017 at 4:32:02 PM permalink
It was fun getting to watch Timeline in the Peter Pan. When I saw him open at 1/9 I immediately left the sportsbook and went home to watch the race. He will definitely be one to consider in the Belmont stakes.
Great breakdown on the Man o' War by DD. Zhukova certainly has the look of a great turf runner. After the early scratches I also passed on the race.
Both runners were heavy favorites. But they were very logical favorites (after analysis) and the kind you do not try to beat. Hard to make any money on win bets...
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The Preakness Daily Racing Form pps are available here:
http://www1.drf.com/formulator-web/FreeRace.do?trackId=PIM&country=USA&raceDate=20170520&dayEvening=D&raceNumber=13#past-performance-race/13

Sad to have Royal Mo hurt in a training breeze. Looks like he will survive after surgery on his ankle. I am likely passing on the Pimlico races this weekend. I just have no strong opinion in the Pim Special, the Black Eyed Susan, or the Preakness. AD has the look of a favorite (like Timeline and Zhukova last weekend) you do not try and beat right now...
onenickelmiracle
onenickelmiracle
Joined: Jan 26, 2012
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May 18th, 2017 at 5:48:40 PM permalink
To the best of my knowledge, Time Line isn't even being considered to run in the Belmont. Pretty sure what I heard was the connections didn't feel he was suited to run a mile and a half.
Looks like sh!t just got imaginary!
Keeneone
Keeneone
Joined: Aug 16, 2014
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May 18th, 2017 at 6:05:01 PM permalink
Quote: onenickelmiracle

To the best of my knowledge, Time Line isn't even being considered to run in the Belmont. Pretty sure what I heard was the connections didn't feel he was suited to run a mile and a half.


I should have added "if he runs" in the Belmont Stakes. But based on DD's excellent breakdown of Timeline's pedigree I am just not buying his trainer's (C. Brown) recent comments. There are numerous reasons not to run him, but I am not buying distance limitations as an issue. The composition of the Belmont field (post Preakness) is likely a main reason to "wait and see".
DrawingDead
DrawingDead
Joined: Jun 13, 2014
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May 18th, 2017 at 6:54:33 PM permalink
After the Peter Pan, Chad Brown has been quoted as now targeting the Haskell for Timeline, with one race in either the Easy Goer, the Dwyer, or the Pegasus before then. He's talking about running Take Your Guns, who finished a distant 4th in the Peter Pan, in the Belmont Stakes. That's what the man was said to have said, according to some of the racing press a day after the race.

EDIT to add: Not really what I was expecting to hear, and I got the impression the racing writers asking him about it may have been mildly surprised by the tentative post-race plans too.

*shrug*

RE-EDIT: After winning the Man O' War the connections of Zhukova made it clear that part of their reason for shipping across the pond (before almost immediately returning with her to Ireland) was to punch her ticket for running in the Breeders' Cup.
Last edited by: DrawingDead on May 18, 2017
Nevermind.
onenickelmiracle
onenickelmiracle
Joined: Jan 26, 2012
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May 18th, 2017 at 10:46:51 PM permalink
Everywhere I seem to look, the people that have seen Gunnevera are saying physically he looks great. Might be the paddock pick.
Looks like sh!t just got imaginary!
onenickelmiracle
onenickelmiracle
Joined: Jan 26, 2012
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May 19th, 2017 at 2:21:19 AM permalink
I'm wondering about taking Lookin at Lee and Gunnevera, maybe Multiplier on top, putting as many horses underneath as you can. Term of art and Senior investment can be thrown out of the trifectas pretty confidently. BBB mentioned CMM, CE, GUNNEVERA, AD, and it's a very typical comment, enough to scare me that it can't be right because ive seen it at a few places. It could happen, just saying seems the obvious, the common knowledge is usually wrong. You have to figure out where the chinks in the armor are. I am a little less confident doubting AD and GUNNEVERA lately though. Just am not sure who'll disappoint.
Looks like sh!t just got imaginary!
JyBrd0403
JyBrd0403
Joined: Jan 25, 2010
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May 19th, 2017 at 2:45:19 AM permalink
Probably should start another thread, but since this one's still going I'll put this here.

I like Always Dreaming, haven't seen anything that would make the Preakness less favorable for him.

Classic Empire should improve but I don't think he will have enough to beat AD. I actually think CE and AD are equally matched, but I have to give the edge to Velazquez over Leparoux.

1. Always Dreaming
2. Classic Empire
3. Hence
4. Conquest Mo Money

That's my Superfecta, with Hence and CMM being boxed. GLTA.
onenickelmiracle
onenickelmiracle
Joined: Jan 26, 2012
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May 19th, 2017 at 3:00:57 AM permalink
Quote: JyBrd0403

Probably should start another thread, but since this one's still going I'll put this here.

I like Always Dreaming, haven't seen anything that would make the Preakness less favorable for him.

Classic Empire should improve but I don't think he will have enough to beat AD. I actually think CE and AD are equally matched, but I have to give the edge to Velazquez over Leparoux.

1. Always Dreaming
2. Classic Empire
3. Hence
4. Conquest Mo Money

That's my Superfecta, with Hence and CMM being boxed. GLTA.

It's all about the track at derby day and the way the collision affected so many horses. The new shooters aren't too shabby, at least a few, so that's going to impact the race. I'm not going to believe it if he wins and you wont believe it if he doesn't.
Looks like sh!t just got imaginary!
DrawingDead
DrawingDead
Joined: Jun 13, 2014
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May 19th, 2017 at 3:39:11 AM permalink
Quote: JyBrd0403

Probably should start another thread, but since this one's still going I'll put this here. ...<SNIP>...

Don't feel constrained by the title I gave the thread. I was too specific, and probably should have called it something broader like "2017 KY Derby & Triple Crown contenders." Since in the past these threads started out with some speculation in the Derby futures, through the preps and the race at Churchill, and naturally continued as far as the Belmont, with other racing chatter along the way usually also including some talk about the Oaks and the filly series, before conking out as the potential Breeders' Cup fields became a new topic for people with an interest in the sport.

The post-Derby/pre-Preakness odds I've seen on the Triple Crown prop bet were running about +300 to +350 for "yes" and -500 and up for "no." But that was as of last week, and I haven't yet been comparing lines at multiple venues for it this year.
Nevermind.
onenickelmiracle
onenickelmiracle
Joined: Jan 26, 2012
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May 19th, 2017 at 3:46:32 AM permalink
I have been thinking of a few threads for horseracing, one for general questions and observations, one for interesting stories or races, horses to watch, something like that.
Looks like sh!t just got imaginary!

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