Keeneone
Keeneone
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Thanks for this post from:
onenickelmiracle
May 12th, 2017 at 9:23:09 PM permalink
Thanks DD for the post. Great information.

I only capped the Peter Pan because it was mentioned here, and I am glad ONM mentioned it. I will likely have a smallish wager on Timeline with an exacta box including Lookin at Blessing. Lookin at Blessing deserves to be the longest odds in the race but there are things in the pps that say maybe to me...
He has run twice at Belmont and won once. He has run in some nice fields (including a well beaten 5th to Always Dreaming @ Gulfstream Park). He perked up in his recent Saratoga work throwing a bullet for 4 furlongs. And perhaps most interesting is Birdstone on the bottom with Nick Zito as his trainer. He is a true longshot (and likely outclassed) but it is a small field...
If that comes through I will parlay it to Zhukova in the Man 'O War. I like your analysis and I love when euro ladies run against the boys in the US on the turf. She is getting a 9 lb break to the favorite and the track may be good/soft/yielding which may enhance her chances. GLTA
lilredrooster
lilredrooster
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May 13th, 2017 at 2:05:28 AM permalink
Quote: FinsRule

Always Dreaming will probably be 4/5 for the Preakness. I might just wait for the Belmont to really take my shot at him.



that's a good thought. a lot of potential triple crown winners have failed to win the belmont stakes. if he wins the preakness he will surely be bet way down and his rivals will be served up at juicy odds. many do not like the extra quarter mile (compared to the longest distance they have ever run before). i don't know what his pedigree says about his stamina. maybe Dead can enlighten us there. he may have to go up against horses who have had more rest and are improving.
Last edited by: lilredrooster on May 13, 2017
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DrawingDead
DrawingDead
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May 13th, 2017 at 3:53:01 AM permalink
Quote: lilredrooster

that's a good thought. a lot of potential triple crown winners have failed to win the belmont stakes. if he wins the preakness he will surely be bet way down and his rivals will be served up at juicy odds. many do not like the extra quarter mile (compared to the longest distance they have ever run before). i don't know what his pedigree says about his stamina. maybe Dead can enlighten us there. he may have to go up against horses who have had more rest and are improving.


Cliffs: It doesn't say "mile and a half" to me at all. But it wouldn't have said "mile and a quarter" either, which is why I didn't consider him last week. Given a different pedigree with the same PPs, I would have.

Let's give him the benefit of ignoring the at-best mediocre (for the purpose of running at classic distances > 9f) AWD figures of Bodemeister's progeny, which come in at 7.1f to date. This is very defensible, given the extremely limited sample size of such a young sire, and the strong tendency in the industry to start out by breeding new sires to precocious type mares to get early 2 y/o sprint wins when first establishing a "book" for the first few seasons.

So, we then go back to the well established record of the progeny of both grandsires, the dads of both his pop and of his mom. In that case, their genetic influence on his physiological distance capacity should be weighted equally. Empire Maker's contribution is quite stout, exactly what you'd want to see at an AWD of 7.7f. But his damsire In Excess was a stone cold sprint sire, with his "get" producing an AWD of 6.1f in his prolific career of 18 seasons at stud, before he passed away several years ago at the ripe old horse age of 26. It is almost hard to produce such a short AWD among a large sample of thoroughbreds that includes their fully mature years beyond their collective juvenile seasons, and besides the effect on the distance figure as this colt's damsire, should also lead one to doubt how much improvement should really be expected with greater maturity, compared to others.

The net result of this attempt to make the most favorable interpretation of his pedigree results in an AWD figure of 6.9f. On average, I'd expect that could be a late developing sprinter or possibly a nice speedy miler. I'd definitely be looking to bet against him getting 12 furlongs at Belmont if he's there. But, he's already significantly outrun his pedigree.
Nevermind.
onenickelmiracle
onenickelmiracle
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May 13th, 2017 at 12:11:35 PM permalink
Timeline won pretty good, seemed for a second Meantime might have a chance, but nope. The trifecta was 2/3/4, didn't play at all, no big deal it paid $8 and Timeline was 2/5.

The Man o war, many scratched due to rain, not going to play either. Obviously will not be on the turf. Will probably not bother betting there either.
Looks like sh!t just got imaginary!
FinsRule
FinsRule
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May 13th, 2017 at 12:58:16 PM permalink
The rain has kinda ruined a good day of racing. I'm in a contest to try to get to the Wynn Handicapping Challenge on August 4. I missed the 1st race, 11 left.
onenickelmiracle
onenickelmiracle
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May 13th, 2017 at 7:47:34 PM permalink
I assumed that race would be off the turf, but it stayed. Didn't bet there, but glad to see the horse won people were betting on. The scratched horses drove down the odds quite a bit, but for only five horses, to be expected.
Looks like sh!t just got imaginary!
onenickelmiracle
onenickelmiracle
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May 13th, 2017 at 9:19:48 PM permalink
Pletcher interview I understand I may be looking for evidence to not want to back Always Dreaming, but I'm not gaining confidence seeing him interviewed. There is a lot of stress wanting to continue on the path towards the Triple Crown, and I think he is feeling it. Him not having true confidence doesn't mean the horse won't win, but it tells me deep down, he is scared Always Dreaming will not win. Nonverbal cues don't support the words, he seems to be relieved not talking about Always Dreaming when another horse is brought up, and chirps up the rest of the interview.

He brought the horse early, a mistake he felt was made with Super Saver waiting. The other horses mostly are not there, where it's been raining at Pimlico, hampering efforts.

Just my personal opinion, dont like what I see with Royal Mo in this video, but I'm not an expert or know the horse well.

Even if I think Always Dreaming will not win the Preakness, it's still a difficult decision. Conquest Mo Money would be my number one horse because he skipped the derby and ran well in the Arkansas derby, beaten by Classic Empire. Lookin at Lee did well in the derby, but was helped by Thunder Snow, in a difficult post, ridden by Corey Lanerie who is very experienced at Churchill, the best there. I'm really not thinking about Gunnevera. Mike Smith scares me to give up on the horse.
Last edited by: onenickelmiracle on May 13, 2017
Looks like sh!t just got imaginary!
DrawingDead
DrawingDead
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Thanks for this post from:
onenickelmiracle
May 13th, 2017 at 9:46:02 PM permalink
Because of an all-day commitment I had to play them in advance early wagering long before announcement of scratches and seeing the money flow. Don't like to do that, but I did. Straight-up Win & Place in the Peter Pan, and across the board WPS in the Man O' War.





So you could say nailed it twice. On a 2/5 winner and a 4/5 winner; so brilliant handicapping, NOT. Apparently everyone from the parking lot attendant to sheepherders in Mongolia emptied their pockets to get down on these. Nice to have it right in a purely sporting sense, compared to the alternative, and hope those who went along enjoy the bag of potato chips their winnings have now paid for. All things considered, I don't mind the relatively decent payout for Place on Zhukova, though.
Nevermind.
lilredrooster
lilredrooster
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May 14th, 2017 at 1:01:49 AM permalink
Quote: DrawingDead

All things considered, I don't mind the relatively decent payout for Place on Zhukova, though.



I'm sure you know the Dr. Z idea of scoping out the place and show pools to get an outsize payout there. I have not considered it to be very useful except at very small tracks where you can only make a small bet or you shoot yourself in the foot. But it looks like it would have been useful in this race, especially if Zhukova had come in 2nd instead of 1st. Maybe a great deal of place money was on Wake Forest.
everybody wants to go to heaven but nobody wants to die
DrawingDead
DrawingDead
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May 14th, 2017 at 2:00:11 AM permalink
Quote: lilredrooster

I'm sure you know the Dr. Z idea of scoping out the place and show pools to get an outsize payout there. I have not considered it to be very useful except at very small tracks where you can only make a small bet or you shoot yourself in the foot. But it looks like it would have been useful in this race, especially if Zhukova had come in 2nd instead of 1st. Maybe a great deal of place money was on Wake Forest.

Yes, I read his book carefully and enthusiastically (in spite of the cheesey title) and used the concept to good effect back in the day. Now, at major tracks if isn't unusual for me to see a pattern of money flow something like these proportions of the pools wagered on a favorite...

At > 5 min to post

WIN: 28%
PLC: 23%
SHW: 17%

At < 1 min to post

WIN: 29%
PLC: 27%
SHW: 28%

...at a track doing about 8 freaking million $ in daily handle. Phooey.

I think you might be the first person I've 'heard' mention Ziemba & Hausch in this century. I see the copyright date on mine is 1987, revised from the 1st edition in 1984. I think the obvious simplest straightforward direct applications of the contents were pretty much toast by about 1992-ish or thereabouts. Maybe you could still do the original "Z" thing at Portland Meadows today, betting into a $200 pool.
Nevermind.

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