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how much is half a point worth in college football?

September 2nd, 2010 at 9:43:53 AM permalink
rudeboyoi
Member since: Mar 28, 2010
Threads: 16
Posts: 530
+/- .5 especially around 3, 7, 10, and 14.
September 2nd, 2010 at 10:41:57 AM permalink
Wizard
Administrator
Member since: Oct 14, 2009
Threads: 256
Posts: 5776
I've been meaning to analyze that. I recently did just that for buying a half point off the total in baseball.
It's not whether you win or lose; it's whether or not you had a good bet.
September 2nd, 2010 at 3:55:25 PM permalink
Wizard
Administrator
Member since: Oct 14, 2009
Threads: 256
Posts: 5776
Okay, I spent all day on this, not on college football, but the NFL. Please have a look at my fair prices for buying a half point in the NFL. I'd be interested in your comments. I may work on college next.
It's not whether you win or lose; it's whether or not you had a good bet.
September 2nd, 2010 at 4:34:06 PM permalink
mkl654321
Member since: Aug 8, 2010
Threads: 65
Posts: 3412
Quote: Wizard
If they are based on the OVERALL frequency of a given spread number or a given posted total, then they wouldn't have that much meaning.


Of course I thought of that. Give me a little credit. It is rather involved to explain the details.
The fact that a believer is happier than a skeptic is no more to the point than the fact that a drunken man is happier than a sober one. The happiness of credulity is a cheap and dangerous quality.---George Bernard Shaw
September 2nd, 2010 at 5:56:26 PM permalink
rudeboyoi
Member since: Mar 28, 2010
Threads: 16
Posts: 530
nice work. its good to know now how huge the 3 is when looking at lines changing. im googling some stuff and it seems commonplace that most places wont let you buy onto the 3 but some places will let you buy onto the 7 so thats good to know. or if there are any online sites that charge less for buying points, maybe you can buy onto the 10. as for college football, my guess is a half point wont be worth nearly as much in college as it is in the NFL. maybe 3 points will be worth 15 and 7 pts will be worth 8.
September 2nd, 2010 at 5:59:55 PM permalink
mkl654321
Member since: Aug 8, 2010
Threads: 65
Posts: 3412
Quote: mkl654321
Of course I thought of that. Give me a little credit. It is rather involved to explain the details.


OK, OK, but why get so peeved that you delete my post? I acknowledge your expertise (bowing low enough that forehead touches floor).

Neither the numbers themselves nor the attendant explanation gave any indication that this nuance had been taken into account.
The fact that a believer is happier than a skeptic is no more to the point than the fact that a drunken man is happier than a sober one. The happiness of credulity is a cheap and dangerous quality.---George Bernard Shaw

 

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