One lousy bet

Who'd you bet on, right now, to win the Superbowl come February 2011?

I want to place such a bet, mostly for kicks and for around $10. My brother advised me to pick the 4 likeliest and bet on all of them. Rigth now that's, in no particular order: Indianapolis, Minnesota, Pittsburgh and New England.

So, who do you think will win? Multiple choices of up to 4 or 5 teams are ok. I'd have made it a poll, but writing down al 31 teams is a lot of work (yes, I said thirty one (three-one) teams; it's not a mistake or a typo, just sarcasm).

PS this gives an excuse to at long last visit a sports book here in Mex City.

Good idea. I hope you don't mind if I steal it, and make it an official contest.

Go right ahead.

What are the odds on those four favorites?
What are the odds on the less favorite but also decent-chance teams?
I'll go look up exactly how the super bowl is defined and be back later. I know alot of money rides on it but it seems most of the money is bet only after the contenders are known.

Quote: Nareed

Who'd you bet on, right now, to win the Superbowl come February 2011?

I want to place such a bet, mostly for kicks and for around $10. My brother advised me to pick the 4 likeliest and bet on all of them. Rigth now that's, in no particular order: Indianapolis, Minnesota, Pittsburgh and New England.

So, who do you think will win? Multiple choices of up to 4 or 5 teams are ok. I'd have made it a poll, but writing down al 31 teams is a lot of work (yes, I said thirty one (three-one) teams; it's not a mistake or a typo, just sarcasm).

PS this gives an excuse to at long last visit a sports book here in Mex City.

PIT and NE are too highly rated, in my book, and the Saints too lowly. Minnesota are in a bubble effect around Favre, but this is a 40 year old who tosses up a lot of Interceptions trying to win games himself.

I'd say the top four are the Saints, Jets, Packers and Colts.

Quote: thecesspit

PIT and NE are too highly rated, in my book, and the Saints too lowly.

I'm a Steelers fan. I have to pick them.

I think the Pats are through, but brady's healthy and Bellichick seems to remain sane. And my brother thinks they'll do well. he follows football a lot more closely than I do, so I tend to take his advice seriously.

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Minnesota are in a bubble effect around Favre, but this is a 40 year old who tosses up a lot of Interceptions trying to win games himself.

Favre's always thrown a lot of itnerceptions. He's a gunslinger, it's what he does. I think he threw on average less interceptions last year with the Vikings than his average with the Packers.

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I'd say the top four are the Saints, Jets, Packers and Colts.

I'm sure the Saints will do what the Giants, the Ravens/Browns and Bill Cowher did when they finally won the big one after so many years of trying: they'll go down because they ahve nothing left to strive for. They may correct it next year, but not this year.

The Packers don't really have a team yet. They wasted Favre's talents for nearly a decade, too. Rodgers is good, but a fair Qb does not a team make.

As for the Jets, they're institutionally incapable of winning. They are the league's most promising team: they've been promising to win the Superbowl since 1971.

The Colts have a good chance, especially if they go in as a wildcard team.

Quote: Nareed

I'm a Steelers fan. I have to pick them.

I can't love the Steelers, though I should for the blue-collar hard nosed defence. Their "stolen"(*) superbowl left a sour taste in my mouth (I'd watched the 'hawks for the first time that year, in Seattle). And Big-Ben annoys me.

(*) In the cold light of day, there was only one blown call in my book (**), and the Seahawks didn't do enough to win themselves.

(**) The illegal block by Hasselbeck on the Interception return that set up the broken-ladder gadget play. Not a valid penalty on interception return, and hardly a block when you come across a player to make a tackle on the ball carrier... which he did.

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I think the Pats are through, but brady's healthy and Bellichick seems to remain sane. And my brother thinks they'll do well. he follows football a lot more closely than I do, so I tend to take his advice seriously.

I always discount the Pats. I probably do so at my own loss.

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Favre's always thrown a lot of itnerceptions. He's a gunslinger, it's what he does. I think he threw on average less interceptions last year with the Vikings than his average with the Packers.

Indeed that is what he does. Except he does it when he shouldn't. He's good. He's fun to watch. He has Purple Jesus. I just don't see it.

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I'm sure the Saints will do what the Giants, the Ravens/Browns and Bill Cowher did when they finally won the big one after so many years of trying: they'll go down because they ahve nothing left to strive for. They may correct it next year, but not this year.

I'm not sure. The Saints have a lot more character in their locker room than the Giants, and they are keeping a lot of the old crowd together.

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The Packers don't really have a team yet. They wasted Favre's talents for nearly a decade, too. Rodgers is good, but a fair Qb does not a team make.

They have a solid defence and enough on the offence to win games and the division.

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As for the Jets, they're institutionally incapable of winning. They are the league's most promising team: they've been promising to win the Superbowl since 1971.

I probably over-rate the jets as much as under-rate the Pats, but after last years season, they've stepped it up. I really didn't like them until the play offs, as I thought they over-achieved with a decidely average team, but watching them on the road to the Superbowl, I started to like them a lot more.

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The Colts have a good chance, especially if they go in as a wildcard team.

One day the Colts will be the basement boys again. It'll just not be while Peyton Manning takes snaps and has a defence that can ball hawk. So we agree on something...

BTW, was the 32nd team the boys in Honolulu Blue?

Just two notes:

1) Bad calls by the officials are part and parcel of the game. they can happen in any game. Replay minimizes some, but nothing will ever eliminate them entirely.

2) No QB ever should throw an interception. They all do, of course, and someitmes it doens't matter at all. But there's no good time to throw one any more than there is a good time to fumble the ball.

Quote: Nareed

2) No QB ever should throw an interception. They all do, of course, and someitmes it doens't matter at all. But there's no good time to throw one any more than there is a good time to fumble the ball.

Not quite true. Third and long, deep in own territory, team is ahead. QB throws a deep interception--the job of the receiver is to tackle the opposing player who catches the ball, not to catch the ball himself. This is a better result than a punt and possible runback on fourth down.

Quote: mkl654321

Not quite true. Third and long, deep in own territory, team is ahead. QB throws a deep interception--the job of the receiver is to tackle the opposing player who catches the ball, not to catch the ball himself. This is a better result than a punt and possible runback on fourth down.

It's chancy to trust a receiver to tackle anyone. But, sure, it might be a better result. Still, can you cite a purposeful interception? I've never seen one nor heard of any.