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steeldco
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April 6th, 2016 at 6:17:36 AM permalink
Well, I'm back to give this another try. As they say, "hope springs eternal". I'm back with the same algorithm that I ended the year with in 2015. The only change for now will be one of money management. In the past, my best picks were the +130 dogs. I would start the year with 100 units on each pick and then escalate the size of the bet. What I found was that I mostly won early and then started giving it back, and then some, as the All-Star game approached. The approach this year will be to start at the higher level (7X's) and then slowly decrease the size as the season goes on. Hopefully I don't get tapped quickly with a bad start..........

 Rangers -106
 Rockies 155 7X's
 Tigers 144 7X's
 Indians -134
 Cardinals 109
 White Sox 125
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beachbumbabs
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April 6th, 2016 at 11:05:33 PM permalink
Good luck, steeld! Glad to see the return of this thread. Good example of how to let us play along with you, as well.
If the House lost every hand, they wouldn't deal the game.
steeldco
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April 7th, 2016 at 3:43:42 AM permalink
Thanks beachbumbabs..........feelin' kinda lucky.... :-)
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GWAE
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April 7th, 2016 at 5:27:58 AM permalink
I went to the Pirates/Cardinals game last night. I know it is only 3 games but the Pirates look really good and the Cardinals look like they may be taking a step back finally.
Expect the worst and you will never be disappointed. I AM NOT PART OF GWAE RADIO SHOW
steeldco
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April 7th, 2016 at 5:31:30 AM permalink
Quote: GWAE

I went to the Pirates/Cardinals game last night. I know it is only 3 games but the Pirates look really good and the Cardinals look like they may be taking a step back finally.



The Cards lost a couple of very valuable pieces. They may be returning to earth after many decades of dominance. Pirates look great.
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steeldco
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April 7th, 2016 at 5:36:34 AM permalink
Yesterday's Results:
 Rangers -106
 Rockies 1085
 Tigers 1008
 Indians 100
 Cardinals -100
 White Sox -100

Yesterday's results: 1,887
+130dogs 2,093
Other dogs -200
Favorites -6
Focus Picks 0

YTD Total 1,887
+130dogs 2,093
Other dogs -200
Favorites -6
Focus Picks 0
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken. DO NOT blindly accept what has been written. Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
steeldco
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April 7th, 2016 at 6:23:17 AM permalink
PICKS FOR 04/07:

 Marlins 128
 Astros 106
 Red Sox 117
 Cubs -153
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steeldco
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April 8th, 2016 at 2:37:36 AM permalink
04/07 Results:
 Marlins 128
 Astros -100
 Red Sox 0
 Cubs 100

Yesterday's results: 128
+130dogs 0
Other dogs 28
Favorites 100
Focus Picks 0

YTD Total 2,015
+130dogs 2,093
Other dogs -172
Favorites 94
Focus Picks 0
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken. DO NOT blindly accept what has been written. Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
steeldco
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April 8th, 2016 at 7:26:52 AM permalink
Today's Picks:

 Yankees 113
 Padres 125
 White Sox 115
 Red Sox 155 7X's
 Reds 137 7X's
 Brewers 118
 Twins 145 7X's
 Diamondbacks 137 7X's
 Rangers 121
 Athletics 150 7X's
 Dodgers 114
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mustangsally
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April 8th, 2016 at 7:40:25 AM permalink
Quote: steeldco

The approach this year will be to start at the higher level (7X's) and then slowly decrease the size as the season goes on.

why bet so much to start?
to quote my Mom
"That is suicide"

I thought as the advantage and bankroll increases one should bet more
especially in sports betting

for this year
what is your starting bankroll?

what math, if any, backs your high wager factor (7X)?
8X seems a better factor to me (2,4,8)

Sally
I Heart Vi Hart
steeldco
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April 8th, 2016 at 7:48:58 AM permalink
Hi Sally, it was explained in the thread last year. The +130 dogs hit at a higher percentage early and then they tail off into the All-Star break.
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steeldco
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April 9th, 2016 at 4:58:24 AM permalink
Well, this has been a great start so far. Damn Reds. Could have been a phenomenal start................

04/08 results:
 Yankees -100
 Padres 125
 White Sox -100
 Red Sox 1085
 Reds -700
 Brewers 118
 Twins -700
 Diamondbacks 959
 Rangers 121
 Athletics 1050
 Dodgers -100

Yesterday's results: 1,758
+130dogs 1,694
Other dogs 64
Favorites 0
Focus Picks 0

YTD Total 3,773
+130dogs 3,787
Other dogs -108
Favorites 94
Focus Picks 0
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beachmonkey
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April 9th, 2016 at 5:25:27 AM permalink
have been waiting for new season and your selections so much more than mear brain candy. good luck and hve fun and good fortune this year . beachmonkey
steeldco
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April 9th, 2016 at 5:32:50 AM permalink
Quote: beachmonkey

have been waiting for new season and your selections so much more than mear brain candy. good luck and hve fun and good fortune this year . beachmonkey



Thanks beachmonkey. Let's hope it's a great season with many long winning streaks.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken. DO NOT blindly accept what has been written. Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
steeldco
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April 9th, 2016 at 5:38:05 AM permalink
Today's Picks:
 Red Sox 110
 Reds 122
 Yankees EV
 Marlins 142 7X's
 Orioles 118
 Brewers 120
 Twins 132 7X's
 Padres 127
 Athletics 130 7X's
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steeldco
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April 10th, 2016 at 12:14:11 AM permalink
04/09 Results:
Won/Loss
 Red Sox 110
 Reds 122
 Yankees 100
 Marlins 0
 Orioles 0
 Brewers -100
 Twins -700
 Padres 127
 Athletics 910

Yesterday's results: 569
+130dogs 210
Other dogs 359
Favorites 0
Focus Picks 0

YTD Total 4,342
+130dogs 3,997
Other dogs 251
Favorites 94
Focus Picks 0
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steeldco
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April 10th, 2016 at 8:18:41 AM permalink
Today's Picks:
 Blue Jays -134 Focus 7X's
 Reds 115
 Marlins 135 7X's
 Cardinals -177
 Orioles -102
 Indians 110
 Brewers 155 7X's
 Dodgers 122
 Padres -105
 Athletics 181 7X's
 Yankees 104
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steeldco
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April 11th, 2016 at 4:08:09 AM permalink
Somebody pinch me......am I dreaming?

 Blue Jays 700
 Reds 115
 Marlins -700
 Cardinals 100
 Orioles 100
 Indians 0
 Brewers 1085
 Dodgers -100
 Padres -105
 Athletics 1267
 Yankees 0

Yesterday's results: 2,462
+130dogs 1,652
Other dogs 15
Favorites 95
Focus Picks 700

YTD Total 6,804
+130dogs 5,649 <-----The ONLY picks worth playing. They ROCK! THE BEST MLB money line system anywhere!
Other dogs 266
Favorites 189
Focus Picks 700
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steeldco
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April 11th, 2016 at 9:12:59 AM permalink
Today's Picks:
 Pirates 148 7X's
 Orioles 176 7X's
 Phillies -129 FOCUS 7X's
 White Sox -109
 Reds 186 7X's
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steeldco
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April 12th, 2016 at 4:01:33 AM permalink
04/11 Results:
Won/Loss
 Pirates +1036
 Orioles +1232
 Phillies -903
 White Sox +100
 Reds -700

Yesterday's results: +765
+130dogs +1,568
Other dogs 0
Favorites +100
Focus Picks -903

YTD Total +7,569
+130dogs +7,217
Other dogs +266
Favorites +289
Focus Picks -203
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken. DO NOT blindly accept what has been written. Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
steeldco
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April 12th, 2016 at 5:21:06 AM permalink
Today's Picks:
And BTW, for the first time this year I don't like this group of picks. Nonetheless, I'm sticking to the plan. They are what they are.

 Diamondbacks 146 7X's
 Braves 178 7X's
 Orioles 148 7X's
 Marlins 131 7X's
 Royals 126
 Rockies 122
 Angels 105
 Rangers -105
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beachmonkey
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April 12th, 2016 at 7:53:57 AM permalink
thats the key aspect right there. STICK TO THE plan . I noticed last year you changed a few times maybe a bit too early then everything goes sideways. I think you lost 4 days in a row then you became erratic with you bet size, but you would have made it all back in a relative short amount of time . No disrespect intended, but you have enough historical data re MLB and YOUR win /lose run of ins and outs to adjust your bet size. ie most people get hot and try to regain loss straight away. sometimes works most often leads to bigger loss. You are in for the long haul. regular profit no matter how small will compound by the end of the season. that is the aim of the game $$$$$./++++ Your method works . you can get a lot of fun at end of the season spending some of the profits. put some of the profit back into next season bank roll and increase the bit size and on and on it goes. If all eight selections come that you have listed above I should get a return of $702.33 for $1. outlay. if just one loses I lose $1.... thanks for selections.. .have fun. kind regards
steeldco
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April 12th, 2016 at 4:19:54 PM permalink
Thanks for the encouragement beachmonkey. It looks like we're off to a good start today with Arizona winning.
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steeldco
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April 13th, 2016 at 3:24:44 AM permalink
This is certainly starting to feel magical...........

04/12/16 Results:
 Diamondbacks +1022
 Braves -700
 Orioles +1036
 Marlins +917
 Royals +126
 Rockies -100
 Angels +105
 Rangers +100

Yesterday's results: +2,506
+130dogs +2,275
Other dogs +131
Favorites +100
Focus Picks 0

YTD Total +10,075
+130dogs +9,492 <-----The ONLY picks worth playing. They ROCK! THE BEST MLB money line system anywhere!
Other dogs +397
Favorites +389
Focus Picks -203
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beachmonkey
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April 13th, 2016 at 4:38:17 AM permalink
you have got it thanks . almost perfect round. Now I know as you do Steeldco, is that you have had a clean sweep round more than once over the last few years so I know it will happen at least once this coming year. good feeling eh ? I had back bet as individual bet on this round so still ahead. thanks . look forward to each day .what a life.
steeldco
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April 13th, 2016 at 4:47:27 AM permalink
You're Welcome!
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken. DO NOT blindly accept what has been written. Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
steeldco
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April 13th, 2016 at 5:47:48 AM permalink
Today's Picks:
 Angels -104
 Rangers 140 7X's
 Phillies -114 FOCUS 7X's
 Yankees 108
 Tigers 141 7X's
 White Sox -105
 Brewers 150 7X's
 Rockies -102
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beachmonkey
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April 13th, 2016 at 6:27:22 AM permalink
thanks good/. luck 8 leg combo = $371.83 @ $1 bet also back flat bet each. thanks
beachbumbabs
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April 13th, 2016 at 11:22:27 PM permalink
Geez, Steel. I hope you're betting real money. This is phenomenal so far.
If the House lost every hand, they wouldn't deal the game.
steeldco
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April 14th, 2016 at 3:46:46 AM permalink
Quote: beachbumbabs

Geez, Steel. I hope you're betting real money. This is phenomenal so far.


Thanks beachbumbabs! I think I prefer the term "magical", but phenomenal fits.
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steeldco
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April 14th, 2016 at 3:53:33 AM permalink
04/13's Magical Results:

 Angels +100
 Rangers -700
 Phillies +700
 Yankees -100
 Tigers +987
 White Sox +100
 Brewers +1050
 Rockies +100

Yesterday's results: +2,237
+130dogs +1,337
Other dogs -100
Favorites 300
Focus Picks +700

YTD Total +12,312
+130dogs +10,829 <-----The ONLY picks worth playing. They ROCK! THE BEST MLB money line system anywhere!
Other dogs +297
Favorites +689
Focus Picks +497
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steeldco
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April 14th, 2016 at 4:38:59 AM permalink
Now that I have given it some thought, these results are neither magical or phenomenal. They are simply positive results from a lot of hard work..............
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken. DO NOT blindly accept what has been written. Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
steeldco
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April 14th, 2016 at 4:40:51 AM permalink
Today's Picks:
 Tigers 135 FOCUS 7X's
 White Sox 104
 Brewers 180 7X's
 Rockies 111
 Yankees 144 7X's
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mustangsally
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April 14th, 2016 at 5:54:32 AM permalink
Quote: steeldco

Now that I have given it some thought, these results are neither magical or phenomenal. They are simply positive results from a lot of hard work..............

I show 57 completed games
37 won 20 lost = 62.16% win rate

the 130+ games
23 won 15 lost = 65.2% win rate

I find that win rate going forward very difficult to sustain
but anything is possible, so goes the wisdom saying

now,
just bettin $100 to win X (X >129) I show a profit of $1,447 in 8 betting days
(with your difficult to find lines in Las Vegas sportsbook)

for all bets (bet $100 or Lay the Line) $2,604 profit

nice start to a season
you even got my Angels to jump and remain in1st place!
I Heart Vi Hart
steeldco
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April 14th, 2016 at 6:08:02 AM permalink
Thanks mustangsally. My expectation is for the +130 dogs to end up with a 48% win rate at the end of the season. The lines, btw, are from SBG Global.
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steeldco
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April 14th, 2016 at 6:19:01 AM permalink
Quote: steeldco

Thanks mustangsally. My expectation is for the +130 dogs to end up with a 48% win rate at the end of the season. The lines, btw, are from SBG Global.



Also, for further clarification, I would expect an average return of 148 for each 100 wagered. Again, this expectation is for the year. That should put it at similar to a 71% win rate (.48*148).
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steeldco
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April 14th, 2016 at 6:42:12 AM permalink
Quote: steeldco

Also, for further clarification, I would expect an average return of 148 for each 100 wagered. Again, this expectation is for the year. That should put it at similar to a 71% win rate (.48*148).



One other piece of data. I would expect to have around 470 of the +130dogs picks over the year.
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beachbumbabs
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April 14th, 2016 at 11:19:57 AM permalink
Quote: steeldco

One other piece of data. I would expect to have around 470 of the +130dogs picks over the year.



Keep in mind, though (and I'm sure you do, this is more for the others) you've shown it tails off drastically mid-season...detail discussions in last year's thread...
If the House lost every hand, they wouldn't deal the game.
steeldco
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April 14th, 2016 at 12:14:52 PM permalink
Quote: beachbumbabs

Keep in mind, though (and I'm sure you do, this is more for the others) you've shown it tails off drastically mid-season...detail discussions in last year's thread...


Thanks beachbumbabs. Absolutely correct. It is also the rationale behind starting the season at a max amount wager and then scaling down. Maybe even flipping the +130dogs for some period of time when the All-Star break approaches.
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steeldco
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April 15th, 2016 at 7:01:01 AM permalink
And here I thought that I would never lose again.......... :-). Time to start a new winning streak.

Yesterday's Results:
 Tigers 945
 White Sox 104
 Brewers -700
 Rockies 111
 Yankees -700

Yesterday's results: -240
+130dogs -1,400
Other dogs 215
Favorites 0
Focus Picks 945

YTD Total 12,072
+130dogs 9,429
Other dogs 512
Favorites 689
Focus Picks 1,442
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steeldco
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April 15th, 2016 at 7:17:12 AM permalink
04/15/16 Picks:
 Rockies 220 7X's
 Brewers 126 FOCUS 7X's
 Blue Jays 115
 Rays 111 FOCUS 7X's
 Mets 141 7X's
 Orioles 115
 Cardinals -105
 Royals 105
 Giants 166 7X's
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken. DO NOT blindly accept what has been written. Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
beachbumbabs
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April 15th, 2016 at 9:38:53 AM permalink
nice hedge, though. Didn't hurt much (says the person with no money on the line)...lol
If the House lost every hand, they wouldn't deal the game.
mustangsally
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April 15th, 2016 at 9:43:52 AM permalink
Quote: steeldco

And here I thought that I would never lose again.......... :-). Time to start a new winning streak.

except you are at the start of a losing streak of length = 1

the winning streak for those that bet 1 unit ($100 on all dogs and lay the line on favorites)
is now at 9 wins in a row
going for 10 wins in a row
1	4/6/2016	93
2 4/7/2016 128
3 4/8/2016 306
4 4/9/2016 389
5 4/10/2016 446
6 4/11/2016 195
7 4/12/2016 556
8 4/13/2016 491
9 4/14/2016 150

yesterday won $150
I Heart Vi Hart
steeldco
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April 15th, 2016 at 9:49:44 AM permalink
mustangsally, for some reason I think that you are throwing out the fact that there are various amounts wagered. This is being done based upon the patterns that I have found in prior years' data. It is no different than counting cards at blackjack and varying your wagers based upon the count. Yesterday was not a win. I am not out to confuse anyone.
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mustangsally
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April 15th, 2016 at 10:14:13 AM permalink
Quote: steeldco

This is being done based upon the patterns that I have found in prior years' data.
It is no different than counting cards at blackjack and varying your wagers based upon the count.

when the probability of an event changes for the better, one bets more and in gambling many use Kelly betting.

You seem to just 7X the 130 dogs always and hold on for the ride that is coming

that is ok
but can not be the same as card counting 21
but still ok if you think it is
Quote: steeldco

Yesterday was not a win. I am not out to confuse anyone.

for those that bet just $100 (or 1 unit) on the dog (you bet differently of course)

all bets were dogs

Tigers 135 won 135
White Sox 104 won 104
Brewers 180 lost -100
Rockies 111 won 111
Yankees 144 lost -100
won 350
lost 200
net +150

going for 10 wins (days) in a row... from all your picks!
Yahoo
My Angels going for 5 in a row wins tonight
I Heart Vi Hart
steeldco
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April 15th, 2016 at 10:23:37 AM permalink
mustangsally, you seem to simply ignore what I have said to you and I don't understand why. I have stated previously that the money management would change this year from prior years. Prior years I started at 100 and scaled up. That did not work because of the large losses coming in the middle of the year after I scaled up. I stated in last year's thread that based upon the fact that the +130dogs started out real well, I would start this year at a max bet and then scale DOWN. This is indeed similar to using card counts. I am wagering more at the times when my percentages of winning are greater (beginning of the season) rather than wagering more in the middle of the season when the percentages decrease.
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GWAE
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April 15th, 2016 at 10:27:07 AM permalink
just curious how you know when you should decrease bets? Are you going to a specific date?
Expect the worst and you will never be disappointed. I AM NOT PART OF GWAE RADIO SHOW
steeldco
steeldco
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April 15th, 2016 at 10:31:09 AM permalink
Quote: GWAE

just curious how you know when you should decrease bets? Are you going to a specific date?


Last year the +130dogs peaked on 06/22. My plan is to be back at 100, or flip them, at around that date.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken. DO NOT blindly accept what has been written. Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
steeldco
steeldco
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April 15th, 2016 at 12:59:38 PM permalink
Quote: steeldco

04/15/16 Picks:
 Rockies 220 7X's
 Brewers 126 FOCUS 7X's
 Blue Jays 115
 Rays 111 FOCUS 7X's
 Mets 141 7X's
 Orioles 115
 Cardinals -105
 Royals 105
 Giants 166 7X's




Rockies are winning 3 to 0 after 6 innings. Keeping fingers, and toes, crossed.......although painful.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken. DO NOT blindly accept what has been written. Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
DrawingDead
DrawingDead
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April 15th, 2016 at 1:43:12 PM permalink
Quote: steeldco

Rockies are winning 3 to 0 after 6 innings. Keeping fingers, and toes, crossed.......although painful.

Four errors + a passed ball. So far, in 8th with two more innings of opportunities to kick the ball around. Chicago looking like Cubs!

EDIT: Now five & counting as a typed. Rizzo's whiff was hilarious & all is right with the world.
Suck dope, watch TV, make up stuff, be somebody on the internet.
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