ksdjdj
ksdjdj
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March 30th, 2016 at 4:21:33 PM permalink
Today's selections are separated into spread and line tips and 'real money bets'.
The tips are just for your information to do as you like with.
Only the real money bets will count towards the season's profit and loss.
--------
Spread and Money-line tips

(i) wizards vs kings,
take the kings @ +3.0 (or +2.5 minimum) if you like them, otherwise wait for a favourable line change and back the wizards.

(ii) warriors vs jazz, take the warriors @ -4.0 if you like them, otherwise wait for a favourable line change and back the jazz

(iii) hawks vs raptors, take the hawks @ +1.5 (or a Money-line @ +110), otherwise wait for a favourable line change and back the raptors

-------

my actual bets for today are below, based on $10,000 bank-roll

(1) 440 to win 400 @ +2.5 on the Kings

(2a) 600 to win 500 @ +2.5 on the Raptors

(2b) 200 to win 220 @ ML on the Hawks

(3) and a small spec bet of 110 to win 100 on the Pelicans @ +12.5 (First half only)
--------

also, I haven't been doing my regular NBA posts because I have been sick, but I will probably do it the above way from now on, because it takes too long to write the old way
ksdjdj
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March 31st, 2016 at 3:56:48 PM permalink
Results:

Will post in a while
ksdjdj
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March 31st, 2016 at 4:00:41 PM permalink
Bank: at least $10,000*** ( *** higher because almost all the previous post 'real money' bets had won)
-----
Today's Real Money bets:

(1) Nets vs Cavaliers : $220 to win $200 on Cavaliers @ -15.5^^^

^^^: I normally don't like betting on a particular team, if they are more than a 10 pt fav. so that is why the bet is roughly half of what i normally would have.

(2) Clippers vs Thunder (Spec Bet): bet 110 to win 100 on Clippers scoring Under 97.5 for the game.
------

Will try and update the results properly for yesterday, but i have a bit to do today.
ksdjdj
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April 5th, 2016 at 3:05:26 PM permalink
Bank: $10,890
-----------

Todays Real Money bet(s)

(1) Hornets vs Raptors: 550 to win 500 on the Raptors @ -4.0

(2) Lakers vs Clippers: 550 to win 500 on the Lakers @ + 14.5 (edited @ ~ 318 pm, vegas time)

(3) Pistons vs Heat: 550 to win 500 on the Heat @ - 4.0 (edited @ ~ 320 pm,)

(4) Pelicans vs 76ers: 385 to win 350 on the Pelicans @ +2.5 (edited @ ~ 325 pm)

(5) T'Wolves vs Warriors: 275 to win 250 on the Timberwolves @ +15.5 (edited @ ~ 326 pm)

(6) Suns vs Hawks: 440 to win 400 on the Hawks @ -14.5 (edited @ ~ 328 pm)

(7) Cav's vs Bucks: 660 to win 600 on the Cavaliers @ -7.5 (edited @ ~ 335 pm)
Last edited by: ksdjdj on Apr 5, 2016
ksdjdj
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April 5th, 2016 at 5:11:08 PM permalink
According the Vegas Insider website you can still get Cav's -7.5, @ the Wynn LV,

that can't possilby be right?,
but if it is, then that is awesome for anyone who likes the Cav's in this game
ksdjdj
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April 13th, 2016 at 7:20:00 PM permalink
past results (will update later)
ksdjdj
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April 13th, 2016 at 7:20:01 PM permalink
todays games:

Denver, 550 to win 500 @ +10.5,

Memphis, 275 to win 250 @ +17.5

Phoenix, 440 to win 400 @ -5.0
ksdjdj
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April 14th, 2016 at 2:03:32 PM permalink
results (update later)
ksdjdj
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April 14th, 2016 at 2:17:04 PM permalink
Picks for the games on 16th and 17th of April and Outright conference bet:

Cavaliers: 110 to win 100 @ -10.5

Clippers: 330 to win 300 @ -7.5

nb: The Cav's and Clippers bets are about half of what they would have been if this post was made on game day because there are too many unknown factors that may change the odds significantly between now and then.

--------------

Western Conference Bet: Spurs 800 to win 2200 (+275)

nb: Even though I think the Spurs are great value at this price, my plan is to hedge this bet for most Spurs Conf. games.
ksdjdj
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April 18th, 2016 at 3:44:27 PM permalink
Today's game(s):

Rockets: 550 to win 500 @ + 13
ksdjdj
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April 18th, 2016 at 4:02:56 PM permalink
Also,

Thunder: 385 to win 350 @ -14
-------
and below is a hypothetical bet, because there are no books with this spread, out of the ones I use

Pacers: 275 to win 250 @ +8.5***

***: According to Vegas Insider, the spread at Jerry's Nugget and Harrah's is currently +8.5 for Pacers
ksdjdj
ksdjdj
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April 18th, 2016 at 6:33:39 PM permalink
Quote: ksdjdj

Today's game(s):

Rockets: 550 to win 500 @ + 13



------

Either Curry must be out, or the market thinks he is going to be out / very restricted for tonight's game, since the spread changed quite significantly.

NB: I wasn't banking on him being out though, as I originally thought 10.5 was the 'fair line' for the game.

NB2: According to Vegas insider MGM Mirage still has Rockets @ +12, but I couldn't see what their odds were at that spread, they may have been -120 ???

------
Edit @ about 10:15 pm EST,

If you still like the Rockets, back them now at the +10, otherwise I think you should wait, as the Warriors will be about -9.0 (or less) by start of game
Last edited by: ksdjdj on Apr 18, 2016
ksdjdj
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April 18th, 2016 at 7:11:58 PM permalink
Tomorrow's game:

Hawk's: 440 to 400, @ -6.0
DRich
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April 18th, 2016 at 7:15:37 PM permalink
Quote: ksdjdj

------

Either Curry must be out, or the market thinks he is going to be out / very restricted for tonight's game, since the spread changed quite significantly.

NB: I wasn't banking on him being out though, as I originally thought 10.5 was the 'fair line' for the game.

NB2: According to Vegas insider MGM Mirage still has Rockets @ +12, but I couldn't see what their odds were at that spread, they may have been -120 ???



I bet the Rockets earlier at +900 and now the line is as low as GS -490. I wish I had bet much more.
At my age, a "Life In Prison" sentence is not much of a deterrent.
ksdjdj
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April 18th, 2016 at 7:36:23 PM permalink
Quote: DRich

I bet the Rockets earlier at +900 and now the line is as low as GS -490. I wish I had bet much more.



Yeah that's awesome, the book's I use are generally terrible on the Money line odds, so I mainly focus on the spread.

The main reason i use them is because they are a bit slow on the spread changes.

----------------------------

I used to like betting Warriors live online, but i got stung by not knowing the rules***.
My warriors game live^^^ strategy was, if I could get the warriors at +8.0 or more at half time or 3/4 time, I would back them as long as they were down by less than 20 (depending on other factors as well, eg current fouls for each team and player, and in game injuries etc)

Rules***: I had assumed American rules### (since it is an American game) but they usually use European rules (unless stated otherwise), so I lost 200, even though I thought I had won 180, on one of my second half bets of a Warrior game that went into overtime, (I took the Warriors @ -0.5)

live^^^: I will most likely back the Warriors if i can get them @ +10 if they are down by 15 to 20 @ half time (because they are still a good team even without one of their star players)

American rules###: I can't/don't bet at American books, so I am not 100% sure that they include overtime for most US sports (but I am near certain).
Last edited by: ksdjdj on Apr 18, 2016
ksdjdj
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April 19th, 2016 at 3:38:53 PM permalink
Today's game(s):

Hawks^^^: 660 to win 600 @ -6.0

^^^: This bet is the total that I had on the Hawks, so it includes yesterday's bet in this figure.

Grizzlies***: 275 to win 250 @ +18,

***: had this bet in part because i thought the line would change in my favour, +17 to +17.5 hopefully by game time, and partly because of my earlier post's statement of, hedging my bet on the Spurs to win the Conf.
ksdjdj
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April 19th, 2016 at 5:22:50 PM permalink
Quote: ksdjdj

Today's game(s):

Hawks^^^: 660 to win 600 @ -6.0

^^^: This bet is the total that I had on the Hawks, so it includes yesterday's bet in this figure.
....



Partial Hedge on the above game:

Celtics: Money line, 300 to win 200 (to win 2nd half, not including overtime***)

***: I believe that not including overtime has a slight advantage^^^, because I am basically getting Celtics @ +15 for the game.

^^^: The main reason for the advantage is: that if the game goes to overtime, I automatically win the Celtic's bet, and I still have a chance to win the Hawk's bet, since the Hawk's bet includes overtime.


Also, see previous post that stated my betting mistake in live betting to do with the Warriors, for an example of a live betting stuff up.
ksdjdj
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April 19th, 2016 at 6:36:49 PM permalink
Grizzlies v Spurs (total 186.5): 440 to win 400 on the Under
ksdjdj
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April 21st, 2016 at 4:16:54 PM permalink
Today's game(s):

Pacers: 330 to win 300, @ +1.5

NB: I actually prefer the Raptors in this game, but saw that the line was about to change, so that is why I took the Pacers ( plan to back the Raptors @ +2 or better by game time, for about 660 to win 600)
Last edited by: ksdjdj on Apr 21, 2016
ksdjdj
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April 23rd, 2016 at 1:44:26 PM permalink
Today:

Heat: 550 to win 500, @ +3.0

Heat(1st Half): 220 to win 200, @ +2.0

---------
Edit (~1655 EST)

Trail Blazers: 330 to win 300 @ +1.5***

***:(Hypothetical) I would prefer the ML for Portland, 300 @ +105 with CG Tech, according to Vegas Insider, but I can't get that.

Please also note that I like the Clippers for this Game, so that is why I bet about half of what I would normally bet.

----------
Edit (~1705 EST)

Tomorrow:

Celtics (Alt. Spread): 900 to win 500 @ + 3.5^^^

^^^:(Hypothetical) I would have also been happy to take the ML for the Celtics, 750 @ -120 with South Point, or 720 @ -125 with other Vegas Sportsbooks (According to Vegas Insider).
Last edited by: ksdjdj on Apr 23, 2016
ksdjdj
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April 24th, 2016 at 2:11:17 PM permalink
Today's game(s):

Rockets: 540 to win 450 @ +5.5 (2nd half, not inc. overtime)
------

Edit (~515pm EST)

Cavaliers: 385 to win 350 @ -1.0 (4th Quarter, not inc overtime)
ksdjdj
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April 25th, 2016 at 7:36:30 PM permalink
Today's game(s):

Trail Blazers: 690 to win 600 @ +4.5
ksdjdj
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April 26th, 2016 at 2:08:09 PM permalink
Today's Game(s):

Raptors: 480 to win 400, @ -6.5

---------------------
Tomorrow's Game(s):

Trail Blazers: 700 to win 500, @ +3.5
ksdjdj
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April 26th, 2016 at 9:52:47 PM permalink
Today's Games (EST):

Rockets: 625 to win 575, @ +9.5

T Blazers: 700 to win 500, @ +3.5

NB: This bet on the Trail Blazers was only taken once (so it is just a re-hash of yesterday's bet).
ksdjdj
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April 28th, 2016 at 4:08:11 PM permalink
Today's Game:

Hawks: 520 to win 400, @ ML, and also: 220 to win 200, @ -2.0
ksdjdj
ksdjdj
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April 29th, 2016 at 2:15:58 PM permalink
Today's Game(s):

Heat vs Hornets (Total: 192.5): 105 to win 100, on the Under.

Raptors vs Pacers (Total: 194.5): 321 to win 300, on the Under.


NB: Any bets I have for less than $150 are usually just a speculation bet, or an 'amateur bet'
ksdjdj
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April 30th, 2016 at 2:15:47 PM permalink
Today's Game:

Spurs: 1450 to win 500, @ ML

NB: I managed to find a better bookmaker for money line bets, so that is why I have been having them now

The 'smart money' is supposedly on the under (but I like the over myself), so I am going to wait and see if it goes down a couple of points closer to game time, and then take the over (if it gets down to about 199.5, or less)
ksdjdj
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May 3rd, 2016 at 2:37:22 PM permalink
Today's game(s):

Heat: 856 to win 800, @ +4.5

T Blazers vs Warriors (Total: 213): 535 to win 500, on the Under

Going to bet live, if I have a bet on the Warriors

NB: I think the line is going to come in for Miami (currently +4.5) and possibly for Portland (currently +9.5), so bet now if you like those teams, or wait closer to game time if you like the opposing team(s)

-----
Edit (~ 1925 EST)

Heat vs Raptors:

If you can still get a Total of 191***, you should take take the Over if you like the Over, because it should be about 192 (this is just FYI, as I won't be betting on this total for the game)

***: According to VI, you can still get 191 with at least 3 sportsbooks (William Hill, Wynn and Stations)
-----
Edit (~ 1935 EST)

there is still some Value for Miami punters @ +4.0, as the line should change to at least 3.5 by game time, barring any significant roster changes between now and then.
Last edited by: ksdjdj on May 3, 2016
ksdjdj
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May 11th, 2016 at 4:22:57 PM permalink
Today's game(s):

Heat vs Raptors (Total 189***): 510 to win 500, on the Under

***: This is a 'hypothetical bet', NOT because I couldn't get those odds, but because I thought there was better value 'selling points'.

My real bet was (Total 182.5): 350 to win 700, on the Under

-----------------
For the Warriors game:

If I couldn't bet live, then I would like:
the Trail-blazers for the game: @ +13.5
the Trail-blazers for the 1st half: @ +8.5 to +9.0
and, the 'implied' 2nd half odds of between -5 to -4.5 on the Warriors.

I may be betting*** live on the Warriors, if they are trailing by about 15 to 20 or so points at half time, (see previous post(s) about this)

***: Depends on many factors, but unless they are playing 'bad' for them, or they are in foul trouble, then I will probably back them at half time.
ksdjdj
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May 11th, 2016 at 4:55:35 PM permalink
Take Raptors @ -4.5, if you like them, as I think the line is about to go to 5 by game time.

I only had a 'small' bet on 190 to win 100 @ M.L. on them earlier.
ksdjdj
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May 11th, 2016 at 6:28:41 PM permalink
Today Ctd:


Portland vs GS (Total: 218): 660 to win 600, on the Under
ksdjdj
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May 11th, 2016 at 6:28:41 PM permalink
Today Ctd:


Portland vs GS (Total: 218): 660 to win 600, on the Under
ksdjdj
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May 16th, 2016 at 2:17:36 PM permalink
Today's game:

Warriors vs Thunder (Total: 224.5): 321 to win 300, Under

Thunder: 749 to win 700, @ +8.0

-----------
Edit @ ~ 1855 EST

Another bet on Thunder, 321 to win 300, @ +8.0 (Total bet: 1070 to win 1000)
Last edited by: ksdjdj on May 16, 2016
ksdjdj
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May 16th, 2016 at 5:38:23 PM permalink
Surprised to see the Warriors @ $1.30 (or about -333) see link below:


https://tatts.com/sports/basketball/nba/nba-matches


this price was correct @ ~ 2035 EST
ksdjdj
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May 18th, 2016 at 4:04:42 PM permalink
Warriors vs Thunder (total: 224.5): 440 to win 400, Under
ksdjdj
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May 19th, 2016 at 12:56:33 PM permalink
Raptors vs Cav's (Total: 198): 550 to win 500, Over

Raptors: 642 to win 600, @ +12
ksdjdj
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May 23rd, 2016 at 1:04:45 PM permalink
Cav's: 840 to win 600, @ -4.5


Edit (~ 1615 EST):

If you like them, you can still get, $1.38 ML and $1.90 @ -5.5 for the Cav's, also you can get them $1.90 @ -2.5 for the first half***, see link below:

***: Click on the arrow next to the instruction that says "Click to see '#' additional markets.", then click on "1st half line"

https://tatts.com/sports/basketball/nba/nba-matches

ps I wish I had money in my account with them, because it is quite a bit better value than the line and price I took.
Last edited by: ksdjdj on May 23, 2016
ksdjdj
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May 25th, 2016 at 5:35:15 PM permalink
Raptors: 856 to win 800, @ +11.5

Raptors: 200 to win 1350, @ ML

(total: 198) 880 to win 800, on the Under
ksdjdj
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May 26th, 2016 at 5:48:20 PM permalink
Warriors: 1140 to win 1000, @ -6.5

and

Total (220.5): 880 to win 800, Under
ksdjdj
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June 5th, 2016 at 2:22:54 PM permalink
NBA Today's Game:

Total(209.5): 990 to win 900, on the Under
Rigondeaux
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June 5th, 2016 at 2:28:22 PM permalink
Quote: ksdjdj

NBA Today's Game:

Total(209.5): 990 to win 900, on the Under




On the same side. under 210 -115, though.
ksdjdj
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June 5th, 2016 at 2:37:58 PM permalink
Quote: Rigondeaux

On the same side. under 210 -115, though.



Even though I have been wrong a lot before, the main ways I can see it going over is if it is a close game going into middle of the 4th quarter, or both teams fouling 'a lot' really early.

------------------

Also, I like the Cav's to win this one @ ML, but not enough to put any 'big money' down (just $100 on them), I will wait and see, and probably bet live on the Warriors @ half-time, if they are down by 15 or more @ a line of +8.5 or better.
ksdjdj
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June 5th, 2016 at 9:22:36 PM permalink
NBA Game 3:

Warriors 400 to win 980, @ -6.5***


***see link below, under 'Basketball > NBA > GS Warriors @ Cle Cavaliers > alternative point spread'

https://www.bet365.com.au/home/FlashGen4/WebConsoleApp.asp?&cb=10580208949

-----------------

the price of $3.45 was correct at the time of this post
lilredrooster
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June 8th, 2016 at 3:27:16 AM permalink
I would say that Cleveland is a good bet tonight at +1. I would have to believe that there motivation, not to get embarrassed - to win at least one game - is greater than the Warriors motivation to sweep. Last year with 2 very similar teams Cleveland won 2 games.
Please don't feed the trolls
SOOPOO
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June 8th, 2016 at 5:11:57 AM permalink
Quote: lilredrooster

I would say that Cleveland is a good bet tonight at +1. I would have to believe that there motivation, not to get embarrassed - to win at least one game - is greater than the Warriors motivation to sweep. Last year with 2 very similar teams Cleveland won 2 games.



Home court seems to be worth more than usual. The blatant foul on Love not called in game 2 is called if it happens in Cleveland. The obvious traveling call on LeBron is not called when it happens in Cleveland.
That being said, players 2-10 on GS are so much better than 2-10 on CLE, if I had to pick, I'd go with GS. But you are correct; last year with a lesser team LeBron stepped up and won a couple of games.
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