Some Boxing Picks

I had a car crash (everyone was fine, but my car is in the shop) so I decided to stay home and cap some boxing matches. I'm going to revive my old thread at Covers for a while, which I share so you guys can see my record if you want to.

https://www.covers.com/postingforum/POST01/showmessage.aspx?spt=39&sub=101509432&page=4

I don't even like the crowd over there much, but I like the people here, so I thought I'd share a bit. I'm pretty good at this, but it takes huge amounts of time and I don't have a big enough bankroll for it to be worth that much to me. So, I only do it when I have fun with it.

Anywho:

Groves vs. Jack on the Floyd/Berto undercard.

I like Jack as he's been adopted to Vegas. He does everything he is supposed to. Nice high guard, busy jab, works the body. That's how he managed to upset Direll and snag a belt. He's a strong guy whose sound fundamentals make him a pain for almost anybody.

However, Groves is on a higher level. He's more fluid and has a larger menu of punches to choose from AND, throws more punches. In boxing, the guy who punches more usually wins. Groves is susceptible to KO, but Jack doesn't have enough power for that to be a huge worry. I like Grove's trainer and I don't think he will fall into the trap Direll did, of just waiting for big counters as Jack controls the action. Even if it starts off badly, Groves has the ability to make adjustments and exploit the disparity in talent. Plus, Groves has decent power and there's a possibility of the KO, as Jack has been stopped by lower level opposition. Jack's stock is high, coming off his great win. Groves is low as he's working back from getting his ass handed to him twice by Carl Froch.

So, Groves is the play. 5d has a really nice price on him at -140. I'll look around town, close to the fight as well. With Jack being local and part of Floyd's stable, some money might come in on him. Boxing markets are small, except for mega fights, and it doesn't always take much to move the lines.

Do you do the same type of analysis on the UFC cards/fighters?

Not too much. Usually if I bet on the UFC I'm tailing someone else. But UFC is similar in that you have to do an old school breakdown of the fights, and it can be beaten by a lay person in a way the NFL can't be.

There are some stats, but not many and they don't come against uniform competition. So it's hard to beat with a computer.

I prefer boxing because it's a superior sport imo. I also have a few angles figured out. But also, markets are very small so neither the books nor the big time pros really put much effort in. Thus, a small time idiot can do pretty well.

Here's one where William Hill brick and mortar has the best line in the world (that I know of). So many of you can bet it more easily, if you opt to.

Wlad Klitschko and Tyson Fury to go under 9.5 rounds + 130. Most overseas books have it +110, so already, that's nice.

Wlad KOs a lot of guys, but has struggled to finish some of the true monsters, like the six-nine Fury. But, while Fury is a talented, world level HW and fun to watch and listen to, this is a HUGE step up for him. He's gangly and sloppy sometimes, which is partially excusable due to the giant pile of meat he must navigate, but he also loses focus. He's also been dropped by far less powerful fighters. With Wlad by KO around +105 online, I'll just hope the KO comes before the middle of round 10 and take some extra pay.


Plus, Fury has power of his own and Wlad has been KOed before, and is getting older. I've watched Wlad's recent fights and while he has slowed a bit, he's still a freak of nature (and PEDs I'm sure). Still, if Fury is to win, it will almost certainly be by KO so we get a piece of that as well.

Quote: Rigondeaux

With Jack being local and part of Floyd's stable, .

I wasn't aware Floyd had a gym/stable. Learning....

Are there any props on the Mayweather fight you like?

Mighty Mouse, Rumble and Pit Bull in tonight's UFC fights!

Quote: Zcore13

Mighty Mouse, Rumble and Pit Bull in tonight's UFC fights!

You can get Mighty Mouse for a paltry -550 if you can get on Pinny! I'm often willing to lay huge prices though.

Surprised to see Arlovski a decent fav over Mir. About -160.

Quote: NokTang

I wasn't aware Floyd had a gym/stable. Learning....

Are there any props on the Mayweather fight you like?

I'm still waiting for them to put them out in Vegas. They like to wait till the last minute.

I will be looking for a good price on Floyd by decision.

Diego Magdaleno +135 is a great bet in my opinion. Good price relative to the market, and I think he's the better fighter. He will have to beat an Englishman in England, so there's that. But in a neutral setting I would reverse the lines. His foe has very limited high level experience, and pretty much zero power.