WoV Playoff Picks Game 2015 (Discussion Thread)
The 2015 Playoff Picks Game format and Rules have been posted:
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/sports/20492-wov-playoff-picks-game-2015-official-thread/#post420358
I think it's almost going to be as much luck as skillful Picking, but since the $25 I am posting up is the only money moving either way, we'll just have some fun with it.
The games have been posted and reminder PM's will be sent out Thursday night:
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/sports/20492-wov-playoff-picks-game-2015-official-thread/#post420498
Quote: beachbumbabsI think the question is, do you pick the games for just this weekend by midnight 1/2, then each week as teams are eliminated, or are you supposed to predict the entire bracket now, like a March Madness contest?
Yes, this was my question. Thanks for clearing it up!
The WildCard Picks have been posted:
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/sports/20492-wov-playoff-picks-game-2015-official-thread/#post421400
1.) I must admit that I am a bit surprised to only have sixteen players since this is a fun game and +EV for everyone except for me, but that's okay. If you submitted Picks to me via PM, and do not see your name and picks in the official thread, please send me a PM alerting me to same at your earliest convenience.
If that is the case, I apologize in advance, but my Inbox has been quite cluttered between managing this, the Picks Game Payments, and a few other affairs, so it is quite possible that I missed one or two.
2.) For those who like EV, assuming all Picks have an equal chance of winning (which would be a decent assumption if Wizard wasn't playing) the EV for everyone, except me, is +$1.56. But, hey, the winner still gets $25, right?
3.) After glancing over the Picks, (which I didn't really do until making my own) they seem to be pretty well all over the place with a few people taking big shots to get an early lead here and there. I was kind of hoping for this to happen and that the various game results will balance everything out to such an extent that most players are at least in reasonable mathematical contention until the Conference Championship. Obviously, I expect a few people to be mathematically out of it by the Super Bowl, absent taking a huge shot (x team-by 50-combined score 82).
Either way, the design of the game is to keep people in reasonable contention throughout most of it which is something I believe that last year's Playoff Picks Game kind of lacked to a degree.
Happy Variance to all, and I hope everyone has fun watching the games. I know I will!
Quote: Mission146I hope everyone has fun watching the games. I know I will!
Just about kickoff time. I live in the northwest and generally pull for the Seahawks and Broncos. And I'm pulling for the Arizona Cardinals in the first playoff game. But I think they are in a heap of trouble playing away with that 3rd string quarterback.
Quote: mickeycrimmJust about kickoff time. I live in the northwest and generally pull for the Seahawks and Broncos. And I'm pulling for the Arizona Cardinals in the first playoff game. But I think they are in a heap of trouble playing away with that 3rd string quarterback.
Do you know all of the boisterous, yet amusing, threats you post when you're drunk? Multiply those by three, and that's what the Carolina defense is about to do to this kid. They'll be lucky not to be on their fourth string QB by the time this is over.
Quote: beachbumbabsWell! I declare this contest over! heeheehee...I got 1 right. Probably the only one I'll get, but I'm celebrating while I can.
Panthers by 11-----total score 44
Didn't want a perfect prediction? The total score and win by must both be even or odd. But congrats on a -4 for the game assuming I get the rules right.
Quote: mipletDidn't want a perfect prediction? The total score and win by must both be even or odd. But congrats on a -4 for the game assuming I get the rules right.
LOL at me. Didn't look at that aspect, was just celebrating being off by only 1 point.
Quote: mipletBut congrats on a -4 for the game assuming I get the rules right.
You do. She has -4 and is in 1st Place after the first game.
Quote: beachbumbabsLOL at me. Didn't look at that aspect, was just celebrating being off by only 1 point.
Only GenWyzgy and I have all 4 picks that have both odd or even, so don't feel too bad :+)
Quote: mipletDidn't want a perfect prediction? The total score and win by must both be even or odd. But congrats on a -4 for the game assuming I get the rules right.
Haha..I didn't even think about that. I was just trying to stay in the neighborhood. Thanks for the tip miplet.
The Picks have been updated to include results:
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/sports/20492-wov-playoff-picks-game-2015-official-thread/#post421400
The Standings are also in the post below that, which are:
1.) Wizard: 63 Points
2.) BeachBumBabs: 64 Points
3.) Miplet: 76 Points
4.) Wudged: 78 Points
5.) MWalz9: 80 Points
6.) EdCollins: 82 Points
7.) MidWestAP: 82 Points
8.) AyeCarumba: 87 Points
9.) Beardgoat: 90 Points
10.) Mission146: 90 Points
11.) GenWyzgy: 93 Points
12.) Aluisio: 98 Points
13.) OntarioDealer: 100 Points
14.) JML24: 106 Points
15.) JW17: 119 Points
16.) Terapined: 129 Points
I hope everyone's having fun so far! With the spread between first and last place being 66 Points and an average game score of 89.9375, it would be really hard to call anyone, "Out of it," after this week.
I'm looking forward to seeing what happens next week, good luck, everyone!
Quote: Mission146Do you know all of the boisterous, yet amusing, threats you post when you're drunk? Multiply those by three, and that's what the Carolina defense is about to do to this kid. They'll be lucky not to be on their fourth string QB by the time this is over.
I'm not going to go as far as to brag about, "Calling it," because Carolina was the favorite and I am wrong about sports just slightly more frequently than I'm right, but Carolina DID set a Playoff record for fewest yards allowed.
MOV = 6 (prediction) - 4 (actual) = 2
Tot Points = 47 (prediction) - 44 (actual) = 3
2 + 3 = 5
I think Terapined scored 10 points (not 11) with his Carolina / Arizona prediction:
MOV = 6 (prediction) - 11 (actual) = 5
Tot Points = 48 (prediction) - 43 (actual) = 5
5 + 5 = 10
Please double-check.
Everyone else looks okay.
Quote: AyecarumbaCongratulations to Beardgoat for the best prediction this round at only 2 points.
Note that Babs had -4 in the Carolina/Arizona game.
I'm still fuming about that ref that called pass interference (Det/Dal game) and got overruled, especially when they could see he was correct on the replay. Detroit never recovered from that scramble after the penalty was withdrawn, and that was the game.
Agree with aos; I want to bet on the Dallas refs. Except no more home games for the cowhands. Boo hoo.
Going for it next weekend.
No chioce but to go for upset blow outs if I want a chance at this :-)
Quote: beachbumbabsYeah, much as I hate to, I agree with Ed; Wiz is in first alone with only 5 against him from the Dallas game.
YES!
Quote:I'm still fuming about that ref that called pass interference (Det/Dal game) and got overruled, especially when they could see he was correct on the replay. Detroit never recovered from that scramble after the penalty was withdrawn, and that was the game.
So am I!!! I had a big money line bet on Detroit at +290.
Quote: beachbumbabsYeah, much as I hate to, I agree with Ed; Wiz is in first alone with only 5 against him from the Dallas game.
I'm still fuming about that ref that called pass interference (Det/Dal game) and got overruled, especially when they could see he was correct on the replay. Detroit never recovered from that scramble after the penalty was withdrawn, and that was the game.
Agree with aos; I want to bet on the Dallas refs. Except no more home games for the cowhands.. Boo hoo.
-Bolding mine-
Cowboys win and Panthers win = NFC Championship game @ Dallas. It is unlikely, but still a possibility.
The Divisional round matchups have been posted:
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/sports/20492-wov-playoff-picks-game-2015-official-thread/#post422366
Why do they call it the Divisional Round? No two teams playing one another are in the same division this week. In fact, EVERY team even involved is in a different Division.
Just call it the, "Conference Semi-Finals," or something...
Quote: Mission146Why do they call it the Divisional Round? No two teams playing one another are in the same division this week. In fact, EVERY team even involved is in a different Division.
Just call it the, "Conference Semi-Finals," or something...
I agree that "Conference Semi-Finals" seems to be a better label. As far as no two teams playing one another that are in the same division, that is certainly the case this year, but there would be nothing to preclude a wild card winner from week 1 from playing the division winner from within their same division in week 2 depending on the seeding.
Quote: wudgedA long time ago there were 3 division winners and 2 wild cards. The wild cards played against each other (wild card round) and then the next week it was all the division winners and the wild-card round winner.
Okay, so there was a 2/3 chance one of the games would feature teams not in the same division.
That's my point, the Divisional Championships have already been decided. If you have home field in the first Playoff game you played, then you were a Division champion. With the old system, if you had a bye week, you were a Division champion.
Quote: MidwestAPI agree that "Conference Semi-Finals" seems to be a better label. As far as no two teams playing one another that are in the same division, that is certainly the case this year, but there would be nothing to preclude a wild card winner from week 1 from playing the division winner from within their same division in week 2 depending on the seeding.
I certainly agree that it is possible, though I am curious as to whether or not all four games in the Conference Semi-Finals have ever pitted Division foes against one another. I doubt it, but I'll look later.
Quote: Mission146I certainly agree that it is possible, though I am curious as to whether or not all four games in the Conference Semi-Finals have ever pitted Division foes against one another. I doubt it, but I'll look later.
I'm quite certain it has happened, and probably more than you think. It would have happened this year if Arizona had beat Carolina (since Detroit lost). If that had happened, we'd be watching Cardinals at Seahawks this weekend
Quote: MidwestAPI'm quite certain it has happened, and probably more than you think. It would have happened this year if Arizona had beat Carolina (since Detroit lost). If that had happened, we'd be watching Cardinals at Seahawks this weekend
Yeah, but that's just one game, I know that has happened. I meant whether or not there has ever been a Divisional Playoffs where ALL four games featured two teams that share a division.
Quote: Mission146Yeah, but that's just one game, I know that has happened. I meant whether or not there has ever been a Divisional Playoffs where ALL four games featured two teams that share a division.
That I doubt, my misunderstanding, didn't realize you were looking for all for games to match up like that. It's certainly possible, but not likely, all four wild card teams would need to be from different divisions (very likely), all four would have to win on the road in the Wildcard round (unlikely), and the six seed would need to be in the same division as the one seed, likewise with 2 and 5 seed (in both conferences).
Prior to 2002, when there were only THREE divisions in each conference (Eastern Division, Central Division, and Western Division) this would have been impossible, of course, for reasons which should be obvious.
In 2002 the league split up the three divisions into four divisions. And yes, it happened as recently as 2010, in the AFC.
The Jets (6 seed) defeated the Colts (3rd seed) in the wild card round.
The Ravens (5 seed) defeated the Chiefs (4th seed) in the wild card round.
So both wild card teams advanced.
The Jets (6) then traveled to New England (1) and defeated the Pats. Both of these teams are in the Eastern Division.
The Ravens (5) then traveled to Pittsburgh (2) and lost. Both of these teams are in the Northern Division.
Quote: EdCollins
The Jets (6) then traveled to New England (1) and defeated the Pats. Both of these teams are in the Eastern Division.
The Ravens (5) then traveled to Pittsburgh (2) and lost. Both of these teams are in the Northern Division.
See, that's a Divisional Championship Round! Except, two Divisions (as we see, if it happened on both sides) would have to remain completely unrepresented in the playoff round.
Conference Semi-Finals!!!
Quote: AyecarumbaAnother question, just to be clear: Predictions need to account for overtime too, right? Not just the end of the fourth quarter. (I am reminded to clarify this everytime Superbowl squares are circulated).
These predictions are for the entire game, so I would assume overtime is included. A lot of times squares are by quarter so it could be ambiguous.
Quote: AyecarumbaDo you think the group will be more accurate in their predictions as the field narrows?
Some will have to be deliberately inaccurate to have a chance.
... but if the outliers turn out to be correct, wouldn't the majority under the heart of the bell curve actually be the one's who were less accurate... hehe. I think it is akin to calling pre-flop with little cards from the Big Blind when the rest of the table is in the pot with what you assume are stong cards. With all the aces and faces in the other player's hole cards, you have a better chance of matching your little cards on the flop...Quote: Mission146Some will have to be deliberately inaccurate to have a chance.
Quote: AyecarumbaDo you think the group will be more accurate in their predictions as the field narrows?
Probably not due to me.
In last place.
Due to being in last place, gotta go against the grain and pick upsets because most probably picking favorites.
Either I make a comeback or way way way down in the basement :-)
Quote: terapinedProbably not due to me.
In last place.
Due to being in last place, gotta go against the grain and pick upsets because most probably picking favorites.
Either I make a comeback or way way way down in the basement :-)
Which leads to a question about the other side of the curve... Assuming all the players play through the end, and genuinely attempt to win it, what will be the highest score?
