Poll

1 vote (6.25%)
1 vote (6.25%)
6 votes (37.5%)
6 votes (37.5%)
2 votes (12.5%)
No votes (0%)
No votes (0%)

16 members have voted

michael99000
michael99000
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February 25th, 2014 at 8:49:32 PM permalink
I'd like to know everyone's thoughts on Wichita State and how far they'll go in the NCAA tournament this year. Seems we run into this kinda situation almost every year, a mid major crushing it's conference opponents, climbing the rankings... Meanwhile the naysayers argue that they haven't beaten anyone good so they've proven nothing. What we don't have every year is a team starting 30-0 as they have. (First team to do so since UNLV 1991)

I'm a big believer in you can only play the schedule given to you, and you get to prove yourself in March. George Mason proved in 2006 that this type of team can indeed be for real, as did Butler a few times.

Chances are Wichita will get a #1 seed, a #2 at worst, assuming they win the remainder of there reg season games and their conference tournament.

Of course Vegas does not always agree with the tournament committee. According to former Ceasars oddsmaker Todd Fuhrman, Wichita St right now would be an underdog to TWELVE other teams in a game played on a neutral floor, meaning they could be an underdog in the Sweet Sixteen round vs say the #4 seed.

Note: I know the NCAA idiotically refers to those Tuesday play in games to get into the field of 64 as the "First Round"... But I refuse to for this poll.
KB1
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February 25th, 2014 at 9:06:42 PM permalink
I think they will make it to the sweet 16 and probably lose.
It is too hard to finish undefeated,especially against all the talent they will face in the tourney.

But,good luck to them
endermike
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February 25th, 2014 at 9:11:32 PM permalink
A lot of it will come down to matchups. Assuming they win out, they will get a 1 seed. In that case, I see them making the S16 or E8. If they lose they may well drop to a much lower seed and then I would expect them to be 50/50 for making it past the first weekend.
PBguy
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February 25th, 2014 at 9:24:43 PM permalink
I was thinking about this tonight watching their game and they look good. Sure they don't play the strongest schedule but they went deep last year and any team that can go 30-0 is special. I'll be surprised if they don't make it at least to the Elite 8 round assuming they end up as a #1 or #2 seed.
midwestgb
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February 25th, 2014 at 9:29:04 PM permalink
They would crush Kansas on a neutral floor right now, and I am a diehard Jayhawk!
sodawater
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February 25th, 2014 at 9:30:00 PM permalink
what do you think Wichita State's record would be right now if they played in the Big 12 or the Big 10? The MVC is ranked as the 11th-best conference in the country. Moreover, WSU has played next to no one in its nonconference schedule. I would say WSU would be 20-10 right now, or worse, if they played in a major conference. Looks like a sweet 16 exit to me.
endermike
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February 25th, 2014 at 10:07:28 PM permalink
A very consistent one number summary in most sports is adjusted scoring margin (also called simple rating system). It is the basic unit which virtually every spread is derived from (with adjustment from odds makers). Wichita St. currently is +15.82. That translates to being almost 16 points better than an average team on a neutral floor. Before anyone gets excited about that, it is 23rd in the nation. Teams which have similar SRS:

-With strong schedules are UNC (20-7) and Orgegon (18-8)
-With medium schedules are Cincinnati (24-4) and Gonzaga (23-6)
-There is no team anywhere near WSU with a SOS nearly as weak (Louisville is #2 in SRS but they have won by way more than WSU and #40 is SLU who is 25-2)

I wouldn't say that this means they are a fraud. It is sensible to assume that WSU would not value winning by 40 instead of 30 as much as Kansas would value winning by 15 over 5. However, If you asked me to guess their record in the best conferences with a decent non-conference schedule, I would guess something like 19-9 or 20-8.
michael99000
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February 25th, 2014 at 10:12:34 PM permalink
If they do get a #1 seed, it could be the best shot a 16 seed has ever had of winning.

Right now Kansas is #5 and Duke is #6.

if I'm a 16 seed I'd MUCH rather face Wichita St than one of those traditional powerhouses. I don't care if Kansas is young and Duke is not the best Duke, the raw talent on those teams is still superior to that of Wichita St. Plus Wichita comes in with the added pressure of knowing they need to prove themselves.
kewlj
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February 25th, 2014 at 10:23:14 PM permalink
I don't think many people would look at WSU and think they are one of the top 4 teams in the country. BUT, they are 30-0, so you can't ask much more from them. lol If they win their last game, (which isn't an automatic as the only beat Mo state by 3 in their first meeting), and win their tournament they will definitely be a number one seed and rightfully so.

But here's the thing. There are 10 teams in their conference and only 3 have winning conference records, WSU @ 17-0, Ind st @ 12-4 and Mo state @ 9-8. If WSU beats Mo state in the final game there will only be 2 teams in the conference that even have a winning conference record. That means they have beaten a bunch of losing teams in their conference and their non-conference schedule is not that impressive. I don't see any top 25 teams or even really good teams. I hate to make the argument that they haven't beaten anyone, but....they haven't beaten anyone.

Could they be the first number one seed to lose to a 16? I doubt it, but I don't see them going too far.

Oh and by the way, that win differential....that is not favorable. You win all your games by 30 points and you don't learn how to win the close games, hitting meaningful foul shots down the stretch and all. Then when you get in a close game in the tournament, you are out of your element.
beachbumbabs
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February 25th, 2014 at 11:00:43 PM permalink
Wichita State suffers from Creighton moving to the Big East this year. They don't have anyone left in MVC to seriously challenge them and are somewhat on cruise control there. OTOH, Creighton was ready for the move, it would seem, as they lead the Big East at 23-4, and are #9 in this weeks AP poll. Go Bluejays!
If the House lost every hand, they wouldn't deal the game.
PBguy
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February 26th, 2014 at 2:45:01 AM permalink
Last year they came into the tourney as a middle of the pack seed even though they had a decent record. They ended up beating the #1 and #2 seeds in the west - Gonzaga with their 31-2 record and Ohio State at 26-7. In the Final Four they lost to Louisville - the eventual champion - by 4 but were leading in the 2nd half IIRC. Underrated to be sure. Obviously that won't be the case this season.

Could they end up losing in the round of 16? Sure. High seeds lose all the time. But getting into the Final Four last year is GREAT experience and should help them come tourney time. I think still being unbeaten going into the tourney will actually be a burden though. Not likely they'll finish the year unbeaten!
Tiltpoul
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February 26th, 2014 at 5:38:28 PM permalink
Quote: michael99000

If they do get a #1 seed, it could be the best shot a 16 seed has ever had of winning.



This couldn't be farther from the truth. Wichita State is a strong team that made an unlikely run at the national title last year with most of the team members returning. If WSU get's a #1 seed, they will have earned it from simply winning all their games. Greg Marshall is not about to have this team go down in flames from a team that likely has close to .500 record.

That being said, I don't think WSU is Final Four team this year. They are good, very good. And winning, even in a lousy conference (which sadly the MVC is THIS year, but wait until next year... Go Bradley!), is still difficult to do consistently. But the Big Ten and Big XII are much tougher conferences. I think this team makes a nice, deep run but misses the Final Four in a loss to Syracuse, who they pull as the #2 seed (who almost loses their game to a #15 seed)
"One out of every four people are [morons]"- Kyle, South Park
LarryS
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February 26th, 2014 at 5:59:53 PM permalink
Last year they went deep and I am guessing the teams they played regular season last year were just as weak. With another year of experience...I can see losing in the elite 8 at minimum.
michael99000
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February 27th, 2014 at 3:37:45 PM permalink
Quote: Tiltpoul

This couldn't be farther from the truth. Wichita State is a strong team that made an unlikely run at the national title last year with most of the team members returning. If WSU get's a #1 seed, they will have earned it from simply winning all their games. Greg Marshall is not about to have this team go down in flames from a team that likely has close to .500 record.

That being said, I don't think WSU is Final Four team this year. They are good, very good. And winning, even in a lousy conference (which sadly the MVC is THIS year, but wait until next year... Go Bradley!), is still difficult to do consistently. But the Big Ten and Big XII are much tougher conferences. I think this team makes a nice, deep run but misses the Final Four in a loss to Syracuse, who they pull as the #2 seed (who almost loses their game to a #15 seed)



As a #16 seed, give me a team to play in the first found who hasn't beaten anyone great over a proven power conference team any day.
Buzzard
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February 27th, 2014 at 4:00:02 PM permalink
30 and 0 is not good enough for a number 1 seed ? REALLY ! Guess Wichita State should just have cancelled their season. WTF

30 and 0 !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Shed not for her the bitter tear Nor give the heart to vain regret Tis but the casket that lies here, The gem that filled it Sparkles yet
michael99000
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February 27th, 2014 at 4:13:20 PM permalink
Quote: Buzzard

30 and 0 is not good enough for a number 1 seed ? REALLY ! Guess Wichita State should just have cancelled their season. WTF

30 and 0 !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!



What would dukes record be if they played Wichita States schedule? How about Florida?

They'd be an underdog to 12 teams right now. And if you think the rankings mean more than what the oddsmakers say, then you don't follow college basketball.
Tiltpoul
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February 27th, 2014 at 6:42:54 PM permalink
Quote: michael99000

What would dukes record be if they played Wichita States schedule? How about Florida?



That's extremely irrelevant. Look at Syracuse. The first loss of the season was to a 7-19 team. Granted, Boston College was playing with a lot of emotion, but still... they were 7-19!!!

Quote: michael99000

They'd be an underdog to 12 teams right now. And if you think the rankings mean more than what the oddsmakers say, then you don't follow college basketball.



Seeding in college basketball has less to do with who they would be an underdog to, and more to do with the overall picture. SOS and RPI make a difference of course, but a team that goes undefeated and doesn't get a #1 seed would be a bigger travesty. Furthermore, even at #2, Wichita State would not be an underdog to that team.
"One out of every four people are [morons]"- Kyle, South Park
midwestgb
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February 27th, 2014 at 7:31:28 PM permalink
If you know basketball, and you watch the Shockers actually play ... You know they are deserving of a No. 1. Bill Self said so this week at his weekly Press Conference.
Buzzard
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February 27th, 2014 at 7:40:54 PM permalink
Quote: michael99000

What would dukes record be if they played Wichita States schedule? How about Florida?

They'd be an underdog to 12 teams right now. And if you think the rankings mean more than what the oddsmakers say, then you don't follow college basketball.



I repeat 30 and 0 and can't get a 1 seed in a tournament ? Why the hell should Wichita State even play a season !
Shed not for her the bitter tear Nor give the heart to vain regret Tis but the casket that lies here, The gem that filled it Sparkles yet
Buzzard
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February 27th, 2014 at 7:45:09 PM permalink
I have only bet on one basketball game EVER. Was living in Houston. Took 23 points in 1983. Never expected to win outright No Way.
But figured Houston would be throwing bricks at foul line in 4th quarter. Houston biggest lead , 23 points in the 4th quarter.
Shed not for her the bitter tear Nor give the heart to vain regret Tis but the casket that lies here, The gem that filled it Sparkles yet
LarryS
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March 3rd, 2014 at 12:45:13 PM permalink
Quote: midwestgb

If you know basketball, and you watch the Shockers actually play ... You know they are deserving of a No. 1. Bill Self said so this week at his weekly Press Conference.



i went to rutgers in the mid 70's when they went undefeated (eddie Jordan/Phil Sellars) and the got to the final four and lost twice....badly.

They didnt choke in myopinion. They just didnt have the talent to go up againt the better teams from a stronger division...like Michigan or UCLA which they lost to.


Rutgers had a very lucky matchup ride to the final four playing some rather weak teams ike VMI.

Rutgers was not battle tested. Yes they won against teams that they were put up against in the regular season.

Just like DENVER with manning had one of the waekest schedules...and was not battle tested during the year.....it hurt them in the superbowl.

I think the same will happen to Wichita. ST. Like last year they can make it to the final four...but like rutgers..;once u get to the final 4...you are playing a better team than you.
michael99000
michael99000
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March 23rd, 2014 at 2:56:37 PM permalink
Quote: Buzzard

30 and 0 is not good enough for a number 1 seed ? REALLY ! Guess Wichita State should just have cancelled their season. WTF

30 and 0 !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!



How's that working out so far
michael99000
michael99000
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March 23rd, 2014 at 2:58:30 PM permalink
Quote: midwestgb

If you know basketball, and you watch the Shockers actually play ... You know they are deserving of a No. 1. Bill Self said so this week at his weekly Press Conference.



Hmmm..
treetopbuddy
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March 23rd, 2014 at 3:48:43 PM permalink
Party here in Lexington
Each day is better than the next
ThatDonGuy
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March 23rd, 2014 at 4:45:13 PM permalink
Quote: treetopbuddy

Party here in Lexington


At least until a considerable number of UK's freshmen decide to declare themselves eligible for the NBA draft, at which time the NCAA decides to take a serious look into how many of them actually attended classes this semester.
treetopbuddy
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March 23rd, 2014 at 5:02:32 PM permalink
Quote: ThatDonGuy

At least until a considerable number of UK's freshmen decide to declare themselves eligible for the NBA draft, at which time the NCAA decides to take a serious look into how many of them actually attended classes this semester.



The number of UK players that attended class this semester would probably fall in line with the number of Wichita St. players that attended class this semester. What does attending class have to do with college basketball? I'm guessing there were no rocket scientists running up and down that court. Talent trumped experience today.
Each day is better than the next
Sabretom2
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March 23rd, 2014 at 5:07:08 PM permalink
Looks like I'm the only one that voted correctly.

Naturally, I just voted.
endermike
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March 23rd, 2014 at 5:11:29 PM permalink
Congrats TTB, I'm going to be searching for answers at the bottom of a Jack Daniel's bottle (UNC).
treetopbuddy
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March 23rd, 2014 at 5:18:58 PM permalink
Quote: endermike

Congrats TTB, I'm going to be searching for answers at the bottom of a Jack Daniel's bottle (UNC).



Shouldn't you choice of whiskey be Jim Beam in this case?
Each day is better than the next
beachbumbabs
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March 23rd, 2014 at 5:26:24 PM permalink
Quote: endermike

Congrats TTB, I'm going to be searching for answers at the bottom of a Jack Daniel's bottle (UNC).



My sympathies, endermike. I was pulling for the Tarheels as well. It was going to take a miracle even if they got .3-.4 put back on the clock anyway, but probably no consolation to know that.
If the House lost every hand, they wouldn't deal the game.
treetopbuddy
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March 23rd, 2014 at 5:32:00 PM permalink
Quote: endermike

Congrats TTB, I'm going to be searching for answers at the bottom of a Jack Daniel's bottle (UNC).



Yeah, you suffered a tough beat….one thing thing for sure you'll be back in the tournament next year with a good/great team. No love love lost between Tar Heels and Wildcats…….Christian Laettner has a contract on him here in Kentucky.
Each day is better than the next
michael99000
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March 23rd, 2014 at 6:07:50 PM permalink
Quote: beachbumbabs

My sympathies, endermike. I was pulling for the Tarheels as well. It was going to take a miracle even if they got .3-.4 put back on the clock anyway, but probably no consolation to know that.



The clock operator was right there with you pulling for the Tar Heels lol. Unreal how the clock didn't start after UNC inbounded with 1.6 to go.
ThatDonGuy
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March 23rd, 2014 at 6:11:07 PM permalink
Quote: treetopbuddy

The number of UK players that attended class this semester would probably fall in line with the number of Wichita St. players that attended class this semester.


Anybody who isn't convinced he is going to be drafted in this year's draft had better be attending classes or he won't be eligible next season. Only one-and-dones and seniors can really get away with it (since they won't have any eligibility left anyway), and Kentucky seems to be "One And Done U".
PBguy
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March 23rd, 2014 at 11:41:42 PM permalink
Quote: PBguy

I was thinking about this tonight watching their game and they look good. Sure they don't play the strongest schedule but they went deep last year and any team that can go 30-0 is special. I'll be surprised if they don't make it at least to the Elite 8 round assuming they end up as a #1 or #2 seed.



Well I was wrong but only because they couldn't hit that last second 3. Good game and it proved they are a very good team. Worthy of the #1 seed? Maybe, maybe not.
LarryS
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March 24th, 2014 at 8:13:33 PM permalink
Quote: PBguy

Well I was wrong but only because they couldn't hit that last second 3. Good game and it proved they are a very good team. Worthy of the #1 seed? Maybe, maybe not.



I thought they would get to the final 16 also. But am not surprised either that they loST.

its kind of like denver in the superbowl. They had one of the waekest schedules during the year.They werent batle tested like seattle that met SF 3 times thst year.

Playing a relatively weak schedule, only once or twice having a close game ...worked against them. And combine that with the fact that Kentucky had its best game of the year, shot the lights out, shot well from three point range.

comong down to the last minute against a good team is foreign to wichita...it wasnt in their comfort zone...and it showed.
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