Wizard
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Wizard
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November 17th, 2013 at 7:14:51 PM permalink
As you may know, I've been looking at half-point parlay cards in depth this season. Important to knowing the value of disparities between the lines on the card and the market is the value of those extra half points. I previously looked at how often games ended on each margin of victory to determine the value of each extra half point.

However, in thinking about this in greater depth, that understates the value. For example, 4.68% of games end in a margin of victory of 7. Previously, I was going off of such average. However, if the point spread is already -7, then it is more likely that the home team will win by seven than for the average game. After doing a lot of math, which I won't bore you with, here is my updated table of value of the fair price to pay for a half point off each spread. For the sake of comparison, I'm also including my old number.

Spread Old New
0 0.2 0.4
1 4.3 4.4
2 4.2 4.4
3 20.8 21.4
4 5.7 6.7
5 3.5 3.7
6 6.3 7.4
7 11.9 14.0
8 3.8 4.6
9 2.2 2.2
10 7.5 10.6
11 3.5 5.2
12 1.8 3.2
13 4.3 5.4
14 5.7 9.9
15 1.6 2.9
16 1.8 4.5
17 4.6 7.9
18 2.7 5.6
19 1.5 4.3
20 3 3.5
21 3.8 9.8
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
LarryS
LarryS
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November 17th, 2013 at 9:12:46 PM permalink
since parlay cards pay less 6.5 FOR 1 vs 6 to 1 parlays off the board.

does your advantage of finding half point value here and there outweigh the loss in payout?
Wizard
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Wizard
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November 17th, 2013 at 9:15:19 PM permalink
Quote: LarryS

since parlay cards pay less 6.5 FOR 1 vs 6 to 1 parlays off the board.

does your advantage of finding half point value here and there outweigh the loss in payout?



Definitely! See my page on parlay cards for more information.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
Wizard
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Wizard
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November 19th, 2013 at 5:44:26 PM permalink
I just put my point tables into a calculator form. Please check out my NFL Point Spread Calculator. All comments are welcome.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
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