Is Deal or No Deal, No Reels, All Deals Wongable?

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January 14th, 2012 at 1:53:05 PM permalink

Tiltpoul

Member since: May 5, 2010
Threads: 28
Posts: 1128

Quote: YoDiceRoll11
Wow. How many times have you played this machine?

First off, I only play it if there's at least 6x in the top jackpot (with the exception of the FreePlay I received). That being said, I've done this probably 15-20 times. It's a small sample, I know, and I tend to take the first deal that nets me a profit of my investment unless statistically I'm safe to chance another few cases.

[Profile updated... more to come]

January 16th, 2012 at 5:17:38 AM permalink

Lvkid7

Member since: Jan 16, 2012
Threads: 0
Posts: 1

Quote: Acoplander1
Is it wongable? Sure, because one stipulation is that the 2X bonus will automatically be hit if there are 74 consecutive non-winning spins. It's like the Konami Quick Strike machines with a capped must-hit progressive ($25-$50 range, $250-$500 range, etc.).

So you calculate your EV, assuming each non-winning spin is worth -$X where X is your denomination. Let's say 70 spins have passed without a bonus, you know worse-case scenario, you will hit a 2X bonus in 5 spins. Say the 2X bonus game is worth $20X. Well, you'd have to put in $5X at the most, so you'd win on average $15X.

Just walked past this machine at silverton casino in las Vegas. Top prize for a $1 bet was over $160 (starts at $50 and increases $0.50 with every spin). That means it went over 210 spins without hitting a bonus. Something was fishy. I put in $20 anyway and it took 17 spins before I hit a bonus. Of course picked the higher amounts right away and my first deal was only about $8. Ended up with 3 cents in my case. A little curious about that "stipulation" now.

January 16th, 2012 at 9:40:24 AM permalink

Tiltpoul

Member since: May 5, 2010
Threads: 28
Posts: 1128

Quote: Lvkid7
Just walked past this machine at silverton casino in las Vegas. Top prize for a $1 bet was over $160 (starts at $50 and increases $0.50 with every spin). That means it went over 210 spins without hitting a bonus. Something was fishy. I put in $20 anyway and it took 17 spins before I hit a bonus. Of course picked the higher amounts right away and my first deal was only about $8. Ended up with 3 cents in my case. A little curious about that "stipulation" now.

I wonder if some casinos have it set up to disperse payouts at a higher range into lower denominations, meaning if somebody comes by, plays 3 $100 spins, it takes that money and disperses it out to the lower payouts.

I once saw a guy playing the game at $100 a spin. One of his offers was for $900, which in my opinion, he should have taken given his case choices left. He played on and ended up with the second lowest offer (I think $2). He would have had to pay taxes on any other deal if he left his big case in play.

[Profile updated... more to come]

January 16th, 2012 at 10:41:05 AM permalink

Wizard

Administrator
Member since: Oct 14, 2009
Threads: 310
Posts: 6733

I played this game at the South Point yesterday through two bonuses. I'd be happy to determine the positive EV entry point, but I would need to know the probability of playing the bonus for any given bet, as well as the 2X bonus.

Quote: Acoplander1
... one stipulation is that the 2X bonus will automatically be hit if there are 74 consecutive non-winning spins.

How do you know?

It's not whether you win or lose; it's whether or not you had a good bet.

January 16th, 2012 at 5:33:22 PM permalink

YoDiceRoll11

Member since: Jan 9, 2012
Threads: 7
Posts: 529

Quote: Tiltpoul
First off, I only play it if there's at least 6x in the top jackpot (with the exception of the FreePlay I received). That being said, I've done this probably 15-20 times. It's a small sample, I know, and I tend to take the first deal that nets me a profit of my investment unless statistically I'm safe to chance another few cases.

Dude, that is some good luck. Nice!! When I played this game, I would take the first deal too.

Quote: Acoplander1
... one stipulation is that the 2X bonus will automatically be hit if there are 74 consecutive non-winning spins.

Quote: Wizard
How do you know?

I am curious as well.

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