System for Holdem?

Quote: Wizard

The fact that there are bots playing online and winning money shows there is a profitable basic strategy in poker, at least at the lower minimum tables. However, one would need to interpret thousands of lines of computer code to understand it. I'm sure programmers could explain the gist of of its strategy, but they are probably are very tight-lipped about it.

Good poker strategy also requires the ability to randomize well, which human beings are notoriously bad at. For example, with a crappy hand you should bluff at least some of the time, but how do you make that decision on a hand by hand basis? That gives me a business idea, create a watch with a random number generator, for use at the tables.

I have a friend who always uses the 3 of Spades as his random bluff signal.

And what happens when your pocket aces is beat by someone who flops a set or 2 ride out a two pair hand.. though pocket aces is a very strong started hand... the probability of it winning everytime you go all in is got to be less than half. i cant count how many times my pocket aces been snaggled by someone holding a lower pair and makes his set... or pocket kings being sliced by a player holding an Ace and he pairs up...

Hell, ive had it wheremy Ace high flush got slammed on the river to a boat. so i dont really see a guarenteed $28 hour payout when loosing just once will take 5 hours to break even again

Quote: kauboj

And what happens when your pocket aces is beat by someone who flops a set or 2 ride out a two pair hand.. though pocket aces is a very strong started hand... the probability of it winning everytime you go all in is got to be less than half. i cant count how many times my pocket aces been snaggled by someone holding a lower pair and makes his set... or pocket kings being sliced by a player holding an Ace and he pairs up...

Hell, ive had it wheremy Ace high flush got slammed on the river to a boat. so i dont really see a guarenteed $28 hour payout when loosing just once will take 5 hours to break even again

Pocket Aces wins about 40% of the time on a ten hand table assuming all hands play to the river.

It's still a very safe play to shove pre-flop with rockets. If no one calls, you pick up the blinds. If someone calls, you are a massive favorite to win - 85/15 in head-to-head, or +0.7 EV. On a 10-hand table 40% win is EV of +3 (or 300% edge).

The problem is that you only get AA once in 221 hands, and that's 22 rounds of blinds, or 33 BB. Your win on a folded table ranges between 1.5 BB and 8.5 BB. Only a call will get you anything real.

Ok so 22 rounds of blind before you get pocket aces in a 2/5 game its thats 7*22 = 154 so you would need 294 buy in just to survive those blinds assuming you folded out on all them.

Lets say 25 hands an hour thats 9 hours.

lets assume your on the BB when you get AA and everyone calls in a 10 handed game so thats $50 in the pot when you go all in for an additional $130. pot is now $180, 1 person calls pot is 280. if you win you are at a net loss of $14 at $1.55 an hour

lets say you do this for 90 hours.. assuming you win 40% of the time loose 60% thats 6 losses at 294 each = $1764 and win the other 40% of the time gives you 4 wins at net loss of $64 for total loss of $1828 gives you a loss of $20.31 per hour

You didn't consider the other 3 all-in hands. The right analysis involves the probability of those hands winning -- granted less than for AA -- and the average pot size for those winners as well. Also, as described you'll need to play money management because part of the game is getting the calls with a shorter stack and then cashing out. A player with $500 is more likely to call a pre-flop all-in of $100 than a player with $100 is going to call a $500 all-in.

Quote:

lets assume your on the BB when you get AA and everyone calls in a 10 handed game so thats $50 in the pot when you go all in for an additional $130. pot is now $180, 1 person calls pot is 280.

What you put into the pot yourself doesn't count as net winnings. So the win is only $45 plus whatever is called.

If you get even one caller with a full stack, it's a net win. But the probability of getting called is small. It's pretty much zero if you've been playing dead-tight on a 2/5 table. Online $2/$5 tables are tight, the only hands that would call are aces and kings; the former will split the pot (barring a flush), the latter is as rare as your hand.
Jumping tables on each round will keep you without a table image, but there's an extra big blind you pay for each table jump on most sites.

FWIW I have shoved with aces at times only to be beaten by kings that caught a set. And with kings to be beaten by aces, it's not even rare, but you don't have a choice.

How did you come up with the figure that you win 40% of the time going all in with pocket aces against other 9 players (which are calling) ?

There are tables for this sort of thing.
Although actually it's not 40% for a full 10-hand. You only win 31% of the time with AA on a 10-hand table, and 50% on 6-hand.

And it implies that the opponents have random 2 cards. But if someone is going to call you, i dont think it will be any garbage hand.

Maybe everybody should write a list of hands , with which they would go all in(i mean in this thread)
Actually i dont think everybody should list the starting cards, the majority will think at the same cards as I would (i guess)