40487
40487
  • Threads: 22
  • Posts: 134
Joined: Dec 14, 2009
October 17th, 2010 at 9:28:51 AM permalink
how unlikely will a player in hold'em tournment with 9 players getting pocket cards. Be dealt a card 8 times in a row? Meaning any of the 4 cards that have the same number. And this was a online site.
Success comes before work, only in the dictionary.
Kelmo
Kelmo
  • Threads: 6
  • Posts: 85
Joined: Aug 15, 2010
October 17th, 2010 at 9:51:26 AM permalink
was your first hand poket 8's? The reason i ask is that the number of players is irrellevant and the value of the card(s) in the first hand are irrelevant, as they only serve to establish the unique value.
Kelmo
Kelmo
  • Threads: 6
  • Posts: 85
Joined: Aug 15, 2010
October 17th, 2010 at 9:56:38 AM permalink
Pocket pair established the card = 1 chance in 600K

No poket pair established the card = 1 chance in 315 K
Kelmo
Kelmo
  • Threads: 6
  • Posts: 85
Joined: Aug 15, 2010
October 17th, 2010 at 9:58:11 AM permalink
Of course, this is based on a single hand played. The chances increase with the amouint of games you play.
40487
40487
  • Threads: 22
  • Posts: 134
Joined: Dec 14, 2009
October 17th, 2010 at 10:29:20 AM permalink
no pocket 8s, just a single 8 card in each.
Success comes before work, only in the dictionary.
boymimbo
boymimbo
  • Threads: 17
  • Posts: 5994
Joined: Nov 12, 2009
October 17th, 2010 at 11:00:50 AM permalink
Quote: 40487

no pocket 8s, just a single 8 card in each.



The odds of receiving a repeat of any two cards, eight times in a row:

Given that the two first cards are different, say 2 - 3.

The odds of you getting either a 2 or 3 on the next hand is 8/52 + 8 / 51 = .31071 (8/52 + 8/51) and the odds of getting both are .01207 (8/52 * 4/51).

If you get a 2 or 3 on that hand, the odds of you getting the same 2 or 3 on the next hand is (4/52 + 4/51) = .15535 (and thereby the same after)

So, 1 * .31071 * .15535 * .15535 * .15535 * .15535 * .15535 * .15535 = about 5 in a million.
----- You want the truth! You can't handle the truth!
Kelmo
Kelmo
  • Threads: 6
  • Posts: 85
Joined: Aug 15, 2010
October 17th, 2010 at 12:37:38 PM permalink
Probability if the cards are a pair on first hand;
1 * ((4C2 + 4C1 * 48C1 ) / 52C2 )^7 = 0.000001655 = 1 in 604,155

Probability if the cards are not a pair;
1 * (8C2 + 8C1 * 44C1 ) / 52C2 * ((4C2 + 4C1 * 48C1 ) / 52C2 )^6 =0.000003177 = 1 in 314,796
40487
40487
  • Threads: 22
  • Posts: 134
Joined: Dec 14, 2009
October 17th, 2010 at 12:47:24 PM permalink
So the odds of getting one out of the four number 8 cards dealt in my pocket cards eight times in a row. Is about 5 / 1,000,000. Wow! Random software at is best.. Someone said the number of players receiving pocket cards at the table doesn't make a difference. I don't see it that way. The more cards taken out of the deck and dealt to more players as pocket cards should decrease the odds of getting a 8 cards dealt in a row...... Thank you ....



from the 19th hand in tournment my pocket cards in row goes
2s 8h - 8h 5c - 8c 6c - 6h 8h -8d Ac - 4s 8d - Ks 8d - Jh 8d. well shuffled
Success comes before work, only in the dictionary.
Kelmo
Kelmo
  • Threads: 6
  • Posts: 85
Joined: Aug 15, 2010
October 17th, 2010 at 1:03:27 PM permalink
Quote: 40487

So the odds of getting one out of the four number 8 cards dealt in my pocket cards eight times in a row. Is about 5 / 1,000,000. Wow! Random software at is best.. Someone said the number of players receiving pocket cards at the table doesn't make a difference. I don't see it that way. The more cards taken out of the deck and dealt to more players as pocket cards should decrease the odds of getting a 8 cards dealt in a row...... Thank you ....



two things 40487,

Probabilities for my part are for any card index value 8 times in a row. If you were to say specifically the number 8, prior to any hand being dealt, the probability would have to include the first hand (4/52). The first hand represents the 1 in the equation, because if the card is not specified, there is a 100% chance that you will get 1 or more card that will determine the card of significance. There is really no value to placing significance on what card value you start with, as you could just well have seen a nine card dealt 8 times in a row. The significance you saw was the following seven times it was dealt.

Secondly, probablility is a measurement based on information that is at hand. Unless you know any of the cards are being dealt to the others players prior to calculating the probability, the other players may just as well not have even been at the table.

Hope this makes sense.
40487
40487
  • Threads: 22
  • Posts: 134
Joined: Dec 14, 2009
October 17th, 2010 at 1:22:32 PM permalink
from the 19th hand in tournment my pocket cards in row goes
2s 8h, 8h 5c , 8c 6c , 6h 8h , 8d Ac , 4s 8d , Ks 8d , Jh 8d. well shuffled.. and please notice the last 4 8s are diamonds.
Success comes before work, only in the dictionary.
Elrohir44
Elrohir44
  • Threads: 0
  • Posts: 45
Joined: Apr 23, 2010
October 17th, 2010 at 8:41:29 PM permalink
40487, I noticed that in this and another thread you have used the terms "pocket 8's" or "pocket aces" in situations where you mean that you only have one ace or eight in your pocket cards. This creates a lot of unnecessary confusion for the people reading you posts. When people read "pocket aces" it means your hand is AA, and almost nobody would view that as a hand with only one ace.

It would be best if you just say "an 8 in my hand". You do not need to always say "pcket cards" since, in holdem, people will assume that they are your pocket cards when you talk about "your hand".

Just trying to help out because I have been initially confused about some of your posts on here.
Elrohir44
Elrohir44
  • Threads: 0
  • Posts: 45
Joined: Apr 23, 2010
October 17th, 2010 at 8:53:42 PM permalink
As far as number of players in the hand influencing the odds of being dealt a certain hand or card, Kelmo is correct. Since everyone else's hands are unknown the odds of being dealt a specific ranking card (on your first card) is 48:4, no matter the number of players.

For example, the odds of being dealt AA are exactly 220:1 whether you are heads up or at a full table. FYI, it is the same odds for any specific pocket pair.

During September I played 32,275 hands and I recieved AA 156 times. 156/32275= .00483346 or 1/206.89 hands. I was dealt KK 142 times in this sample which comes to 1/227.29 hands. 99% of these hands were played at a full (9-handed) table.
mkl654321
mkl654321
  • Threads: 65
  • Posts: 3412
Joined: Aug 8, 2010
October 17th, 2010 at 8:59:57 PM permalink
Quote: 40487

from the 19th hand in tournment my pocket cards in row goes
2s 8h, 8h 5c , 8c 6c , 6h 8h , 8d Ac , 4s 8d , Ks 8d , Jh 8d. well shuffled.. and please notice the last 4 8s are diamonds.



Now that you've clarified this, it was indeed a very unusual sequence. The question is, HOW unusual. If this is a situation that would only occur once, say, in ten billion trials, then that would definitely suggest the site's random deal generator was flawed.

The first unusual thing is that you got dealt the same denomination card eight times in a row. This is, as others have posted, about a 200,000 to one occurence. That qualifies as highly unusual, but not in itself enough to arouse suspicion. On any large online poker site, this would happen several times a day.

The other unusual occurence is getting the same card in your hand four times in a row. The chance of repeating a card once is 1 in 26. There are two cards in a holdem hand, so you have a 1 in 13 chance of a repeat in the next hand. Thereafter, repeating that same card is a 1 in 26 shot, and a third repeat is again 1 in 26. You multiply all these probabilities together: (1/13)(1/26)(1/26), to get 1 in 8788. This is about 22 times as likely as the 8 similar cards in a row, above.

So this sequence of hands, while highly unusual, isn't unlikely enough to arouse suspicion.

(By the way, I've gotten the same card four times in a row at least twice that I can remember, in a live game. I remember it because each time, that card was the club Ace.)
The fact that a believer is happier than a skeptic is no more to the point than the fact that a drunken man is happier than a sober one. The happiness of credulity is a cheap and dangerous quality.---George Bernard Shaw
weaselman
weaselman
  • Threads: 20
  • Posts: 2349
Joined: Jul 11, 2010
October 18th, 2010 at 5:03:00 AM permalink
Quote: boymimbo


The odds of you getting either a 2 or 3 on the next hand is 8/52 + 8 / 51 = .31071 (8/52 + 8/51)



I think, it's less than that - you are counting the probability of getting both cards twice here (by this logic, the probability of getting heads after tossing a coin twice is 1/2+1/2=1).


Quote:


If you get a 2 or 3 on that hand, the odds of you getting the same 2 or 3 on the next hand is (4/52 + 4/51) = .15535 (and thereby the same after)



Except if you got both, in which case, it is still the same as the first time.
"When two people always agree one of them is unnecessary"
Kelmo
Kelmo
  • Threads: 6
  • Posts: 85
Joined: Aug 15, 2010
October 18th, 2010 at 9:13:08 AM permalink
Quote: weaselman

I think, it's less than that - you are counting the probability of getting both cards twice here (by this logic, the probability of getting heads after tossing a coin twice is 1/2+1/2=1).




Except if you got both, in which case, it is still the same as the first time.



If you want to look at it in terms of fractions then:

chance that two of the first 8 cards are dealt on the next hand is 8/52 * 7/51 = 0.02112
chance that the first card dealt on the next hand is one of the 8 8/52 * 44/51 = 0.13273
chance that the second card dealt on the next hand is one of the 8 44/52 * 8/51 = 0.13273
total is 0.28658, which is the same as what showed earlier with (8C2+8C1*44C1)/52C2 = 0.28658

However, I'm not completely satified with my previous answer, as I've assumed that the card of significance is established on the next hand. This is not always the case. For instance, let's say the same two card values are dealt the net hand. Which is the card of significance? It is undetermined. It is possible to have the same two cards values dealt for all hands, in which case we have not established which card to consider. However, the likelyhood of this happening is next to an impossibility.
40487
40487
  • Threads: 22
  • Posts: 134
Joined: Dec 14, 2009
October 21st, 2010 at 11:55:33 PM permalink
Thanks guys for your work. Great work done one this, and as matter of fact I've been dealt a number 10 card 6 out 0f 7 times in a row, and alot of 4 out
of 6 in a row card, and cards. Example pocket 3-5 cards dealt 4 out out 6 times, or a same card number. 5 out of 7 times in a row. But the 8 for 8 in a row is the
biggest so far. And the last 4 8s are the same suit. And i still think that every card dealt from the deck to a player for pocket cards. Will effect the odds.
If 9 cards are dealt out they leaves 43 cards that a 8 can be dealt to me. Instead of saying4 players being dealt to that would leave 49 cards
left to have a 8 card. Isn't their more of a chance that a ace is in the last 15 cards in the deck. Then the last 5 cards in the deck ? Same principle right..
lol.. sorry for the typing...

And it's every tournament I can find this. Sometimes 3 or 4 times in a tournament. And thanks again for your time...
Success comes before work, only in the dictionary.
40487
40487
  • Threads: 22
  • Posts: 134
Joined: Dec 14, 2009
October 22nd, 2010 at 1:20:49 AM permalink
thanks for your brain on this. , I have also had the same card four times in a row in live games. But never seen 8 times..
Success comes before work, only in the dictionary.
  • Jump to: