FinsRule
FinsRule
Joined: Dec 23, 2009
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August 3rd, 2017 at 4:23:59 AM permalink
By the way, still hoping someone has some thoughts about Saratoga for this weekend. The tournament is on Derby Wars and it's the head to head championship. So there are 64 people, and this Saturday and Sunday are the first and second rounds.

I'll play one person head to head on 9-10 races at Saratoga making mythical $2 WPS. Whoever finishes with highest amount goes to the Round of 32 which would be Sunday.

Then next Saturday and Sunday would get it from 16 to 8 then 8 to 4. Then finally the last weekend would go from 4 left to 2 left, and then a champion. The champion wins 10K. Everyone who makes the final 8 gets at least $1500 I think.

I've played in this tournament format twice and I'm 0-2 in first round matches. I'm going to spend tomorrow night worrying about this.
onenickelmiracle
onenickelmiracle
Joined: Jan 26, 2012
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August 3rd, 2017 at 10:39:59 AM permalink
The #5 horse at 33/1 didn't even make it over the second jump before hitting the ground in horrible agony. His legs were flailing around in pain. These races are so dangerous, they shouldn't be run anymore. I'm glad we don't run these much here.
Looks like sh!t just got imaginary!
onenickelmiracle
onenickelmiracle
Joined: Jan 26, 2012
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August 3rd, 2017 at 5:31:23 PM permalink
I was shocked Hard Study was so unbothered by the distance. Apparently him being a favorite meant something. I played 2358 boxed ex & tri, wps 3,8. It was funny my original plan when I had heard about the race was to box 1,5, but talked myself out of it. Bet against Pletcher, go out on a stretcher, guess that's what I did.
Looks like sh!t just got imaginary!
onenickelmiracle
onenickelmiracle
Joined: Jan 26, 2012
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August 3rd, 2017 at 5:33:42 PM permalink
I'm betting #9 Silver Dust in the WV derby, and that's that. Think I'm maybe gambling 1,7,8,9 $1 tri box as well. Patch deserves respect, but I'm not going to give it to him. Was tempted to bet win on the 7 originally but changed my mind.

Think I'm going to risk a win bet on Tu Brutus over Gun Runner Saturday, but unsure yet.

Made from lucky that won the WV derby 2015, is going to be racing there that day too btw.
Last edited by: onenickelmiracle on Aug 3, 2017
Looks like sh!t just got imaginary!
onenickelmiracle
onenickelmiracle
Joined: Jan 26, 2012
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August 4th, 2017 at 11:11:06 PM permalink
Quote: onenickelmiracle

I'm betting #9 Silver Dust in the WV derby, and that's that. Think I'm maybe gambling 1,7,8,9 $1 tri box as well. Patch deserves respect, but I'm not going to give it to him. Was tempted to bet win on the 7 originally but changed my mind.

Think I'm going to risk a win bet on Tu Brutus over Gun Runner Saturday, but unsure yet.

Made from lucky that won the WV derby 2015, is going to be racing there that day too btw.

Not really sure if ill bet at all, but am tempted by Tu Brutus, the horse scratched which was entered in the Birdstone stakes that Hard Study won Thursday.
Looks like sh!t just got imaginary!
onenickelmiracle
onenickelmiracle
Joined: Jan 26, 2012
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August 4th, 2017 at 11:16:43 PM permalink
Quote: FinsRule

It's really been a month since Lo Duca left? He went to NYRA to replace Mig.

Candace does the late shift international racing for TVG. She knows her stuff. Not everyone has a perfect voice.

I don't like her voice because it seems fake to me. Her pronunciation is quite emphasized in an unnatural way too. They put people on tvg that talk like that(lessor roles), over pronouncing words trying to portray confidence with EVERYTHING they say. I dont like it because I can't tell when they're truly confident.
Looks like sh!t just got imaginary!
FinsRule
FinsRule
Joined: Dec 23, 2009
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August 5th, 2017 at 6:43:52 AM permalink
SAR 4 - 14
SAR 5 - 1
SAR 6 - 10
SAR 7 - 1
SAR 8 - 3
SAR 9 - 6
SAR 10 - 7
SAR 11 - 8
onenickelmiracle
onenickelmiracle
Joined: Jan 26, 2012
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August 5th, 2017 at 11:11:57 AM permalink
I think Id have to agree in race 10, quality horse. In this tournament, total money won moves forward, am I correct? Even so, getting in your likely winners is necessary. I usually get 3-5 wins in my tournaments, usually no wins more than $10, I stand a chance of placing in the money in a small field. Don't over think, put the pressure on your opponent.
Looks like sh!t just got imaginary!
billryan
billryan
Joined: Nov 2, 2009
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August 5th, 2017 at 11:21:26 AM permalink
Can I get an opinion on a betting system someone told me about ten years ago.
They used it for the Breeders Cup. What they did was pick the best jockey( Jerry Bailey) at the time and only bet his horses. The assumption being the best jockey won't get shut out on racing's biggest day. They martingaled him, which worked great when he lost four races before winning at around $23, lost three and then paid $12 or so. That day, it paid off.
So , rather than dissecting the whole system, is focusing on the jockey a large factor in wagering?
I assume if two horses both rate 100 on scale, you would go with the better jockey, but how about if a 95 horse has the better jockey than a horse you rate 100?
It's what you do and not what you say If you're not part of the future then get out of the way
lilredrooster
lilredrooster 
Joined: May 8, 2015
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August 5th, 2017 at 3:45:19 PM permalink
Quote: billryan

Can I get an opinion on a betting system someone told me about ten years ago.
They used it for the Breeders Cup. What they did was pick the best jockey( Jerry Bailey) at the time and only bet his horses. The assumption being the best jockey won't get shut out on racing's biggest day. They martingaled him, which worked great when he lost four races before winning at around $23, lost three and then paid $12 or so. That day, it paid off.
So , rather than dissecting the whole system, is focusing on the jockey a large factor in wagering?
I assume if two horses both rate 100 on scale, you would go with the better jockey, but how about if a 95 horse has the better jockey than a horse you rate 100?



jerry bailey won 19% of his races lifetime which is excellent. that also means he lost 81% of his races. there had to have been a great many days when he didn't win a single race. of course the jockey is important in a horse race. but there is an old, wise saying: "a great jockey; a poor horse; a poor bet." a great jockey cannot make a weak horse run superbly. but a poor jockey can screw up the trip on a strong horse. since so many in the crowd love hot jockeys and superstar jockeys the odds on their horses are very often crushed way down. imho a far better strategy would be to bet against hot jockeys and superstar jockeys when you believe that their horse is not extremely tough to beat.
everybody wants to go to heaven. but nobody wants to die.

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