Best approach to win this game

So the rules of this game are

-minimum bet $2.50 maximum bet $1000 the max I’ve seen someone bet is 300

-the pot lasts 1 min once one bet is placed

-all the money goes into one pot

-The more you bet the higher your chance of winning

- They take a 10% commission of all winnings

the game shows how much money you bet and what the percentage of winning is based on how much money you put in the pot.
What would be the best way to win?

so you win money by being the last person to bet?

or is it just a lottery?

if i bet $2.50 and three other people $2.50 I would have a 25% percent to win. Then when the 1 min has passed it randomly picks who has won based on the percentages

It's a 10% house edge. If you play regularly you should lose 10% of everything you wager, as will everyone else. Don't play is my best answer.

ZCore13

Is it really not that good of a game to play? It seemed fair enough.

Correct, the strategy doesn't matter. The house edge is constant at 10% regardless of how much or little you bet. You can change the odds of you winning by betting more, but then you'll just lose more when you do lose. Your results will converge on the vig no matter how you play.

Thank you for the answers. Is it only a bad game to play because of the 10% house edge? I have been watching people play and they have been making decent money off of the game. A strategy I have seen people use is a couple people bet 5$ someone bets $15 and at the last 2 seconds someone bets $50 dollars and since they bet the most they have the highest probability to win the whole pot. I understand that they could still lose even though they bet a higher amount.

Quote: TheBaal

Thank you for the answers. Is it only a bad game to play because of the 10% house edge? I have been watching people play and they have been making decent money off of the game. A strategy I have seen people use is a couple people bet 5$ someone bets $15 and at the last 2 seconds someone bets $50 dollars and since they bet the most they have the highest probability to win the whole pot. I understand that they could still lose even though they bet a higher amount.

The probability of winning is irrelevant, you will lose 10% of everything you bet in the long run. If you insist on playing, then the best, "Strategy," is to bet as little as possible because that yields the lowest expected loss in $$$.

Think of it like this: The House is taking 10% of all of your bets directly, win or lose, because 10% is subtracted from the pot regardless of who wins. Only the players have Variance, the House experiences no Variance, they make 10% no matter what happens, thus, you can't even, "Beat the house," in the short run, just other players.

Let's say four players bet $5, two bet $15 and one bets $50. This is no different than raffle tickets with a 10% hold:

The players betting $5 each have a 5% chance of winning $85 and a 95% chance of losing $5, the expected loss is .50, which is 10%.

The players betting $15 have a 15% chance of winning $75 and a 85% chance of losing $15, this is an expected loss of $1.50, or 10%.

The player betting $50 has a 50% chance of winning $40 and a 50% chance of losing $50, this is an expected loss of $5, or 10%.

The best strategy is to bet as little as possible, including nothing, so bet nothing, don't play this game.

If it helps, let's say that if there was only one bettor, the game would still be played: You would bet $50 and get $45 back 100% of the time. Is that good, do you think?

Quote: MathExtremist

Correct, the strategy doesn't matter. The house edge is constant at 10% regardless of how much or little you bet.

Although I must admit I haven't understood the complete rules of the game ... just because the house takes 10% from the pot doesn't make the house edge 10% against a specific player.

It does make the house edge 10% over the ensemble of all players, but not necessarily over this specific player. If the game has strategic elements, it can still be profitable. But this depends on the rules, if there are strategic options.

Otherwise, it is just a lottery.