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PhilGooD
PhilGooD
Joined: Oct 6, 2011
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October 7th, 2011 at 12:47:18 AM permalink
Okay i just tried the 5Dimes casino online because they have pretty good blackjack games (House edge under 0.1%) but unfortunately, my little trip didn't go so well

Here are the data of my last session:

Hands: 576
Sum of original bets: 1150$
Sum of Final bet (due to double and splits): 1258$
Gain/losses: -95$
Payout %: 92.45% !!

The game i played in order to gain the deposit bonus was a 1 deck game, stand all 17, double 9-11, split to 4 hands, no double after split and late surrender on dealer's 10 only. According to the wizard of odds and his list of rule variations, the house edge is a tiny 0.11%

I used the whole way a 2$ bet size (sometimes 1 or 4 but nothing over, no big donkwager) with the optimal strategy for this game and i hit this unbelievable variance .. is this usual? i don't think we can lose that much easily on a blackjack session where the house has a so tiny edge ..

To confirm my though, i went to the wizard of odds website and i found in the appendix 4, details on the standard deviation in blackjack, that the odds of losing 47 units of wager by badluck over 500-600 hands was a bit less than 5% chance.

Right after that session i was quite frustrated by the variance, so i decided to take a break, but i quickly changed my mind and told myself that the odds had to change somehow (stupid i agree). So here i am playing another game, the 5deck bonus blackjack with the folowing set of rules:

After each hand played, a new 5 deck shoe is shuffled and dealt. Player blackjack is automatic winner. Blackjack pays 3/2. Dealer stands on soft 17. Double down on all 2-card combinations, even after splits. Split pairs up to 3 times. May split aces once. Late surrender available, even after splits. Insurance pays 9/4. Seven Card Charlie is automatic winner.

These rules gives an house edge of exacly 0%, but this is obviously not the result i got. Again, i lost a little more than 150$ under aproximately the same amount of time and hands and i have the data to support it. I asked in the live chat to send me the history of all hand i played, and all i need to do now is to compute them to have a pretty solid proof that this site is totally rigged. Yesterday, i also had a similar session at that same website, so that's a 3rd one ..

By the time i play here, i deposited in total 500$ + around 100$ of bonus and right now i stand with a poor 100$ in my bankroll and everything happened under around 3k hands of blackjack, if not less. Using my usual 2$ bet, that's a total of 250 unit of wager lost in about 3k hands, wich has less than 0.01% chance to occur.

My plan is actually to compute the full hand history data and give the probability of this event happening, and then talk to a manager and try to claim my money back, but before doing that, i want all the chances on my side so do you guys have any tips to give me? does all this sounds unfair to you? Because maybe it's just me and my results are totaly fair .. ?!?

Thanks for your reply!
EvenBob
EvenBob
Joined: Jul 18, 2010
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October 7th, 2011 at 12:54:59 AM permalink
Quote: PhilGooD

These rules gives an house edge of exacly 0%, but this is obviously not the result i got.!



The edge isn't going to manifest itself on such a
small number of hands. Variance is what rules
short term play, not the edge.
"It's not enough to succeed, your friends must fail." Gore Vidal
PhilGooD
PhilGooD
Joined: Oct 6, 2011
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October 7th, 2011 at 1:09:56 AM permalink
I agree, it's about variance and i want to know if it's usual to get that kind of variance 3 times in a row
EvenBob
EvenBob
Joined: Jul 18, 2010
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October 7th, 2011 at 1:14:49 AM permalink
Nothing is unusual in short term variance. Laymen
call variance 'luck'. If you keep playing and it keeps
happening, thats a different story.
"It's not enough to succeed, your friends must fail." Gore Vidal
PhilGooD
PhilGooD
Joined: Oct 6, 2011
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October 7th, 2011 at 1:24:33 AM permalink
i edited my first post and added this info:

By the time i play here, i deposited in total 500$ + around 100$ of bonus and right now i stand with a poor 100$ in my bankroll and everything happened under around 3k hands of blackjack, if not less. Using my usual 2$ bet, that's a total of 250 unit of wager lost in about 3k hands, wich has less than 0.01% chance to occur.

it doesn't really seems to stop .. the chances that this event occur really makes me think that there is something wrong out there
EvenBob
EvenBob
Joined: Jul 18, 2010
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October 7th, 2011 at 1:30:56 AM permalink
Quote: PhilGooD

the chances that this event occur really makes me think that there is something wrong out there



I never played an online casino that didn't have
weird results. Never again..
"It's not enough to succeed, your friends must fail." Gore Vidal
NandB
NandB
Joined: Jan 26, 2010
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October 9th, 2011 at 9:49:46 PM permalink
Right, at $2 a hand if ya get lucky and win $300, try cashing out, but lose $10G's at $2 a pop it aint enuff data (or $), AND you still have no recouse.
Treat it like poison.

N&B
To err is human. To air is Jordan. To arrr is pirate.
jeanesmith
jeanesmith
Joined: Jan 5, 2012
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January 9th, 2012 at 11:09:37 PM permalink
This has to be an interesting point here. I just hoped that things would have been good and well, and also by having a lot of good things to do when going to another online casino in the future.
________________________
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135steward
135steward
Joined: Feb 2, 2012
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February 5th, 2012 at 8:57:53 PM permalink
I dunno, guys. I use 5Dimes for sports for maybe $500/day. Data indicates they're among the biggest books on the planet. Would they get that big bilking a couple bills here and there? I lose money at their casino. But I doubt they're purposely cheating me. Variance is a bitch.
Wizard
Administrator
Wizard 
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February 5th, 2012 at 9:15:02 PM permalink
Quote: PhilGooD


Hands: 576
Sum of original bets: 1150$
Sum of Final bet (due to double and splits): 1258$
Gain/losses: -95$
Payout %: 92.45% !!



If you bet $2 a hand shouldn't 576 hands be $1152? Let's assume the 576 is right.

The standard deviation on 576 hands is sqr(576)*1.155 = 27.72

You lost $95, which at $2 a bet is 95/2 = 47.5 units.

Assuming zero house edge, you were 47.5/27.72 = 1.7136 standard deviations south of expectations. The probability of luck that bad, or worse, is 4.33%.

My verdict -- could have easily been ordinary bad luck. Unless I misunderstood something, I find in favor of 5 Dimes.
It's not whether you win or lose; it's whether or not you had a good bet.

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